CPAC: ISELLE - Post-Tropical

[Blown Away]

[Equilibrium]

looking quite solid again from top to bottom.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Live IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-152&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=10

WV: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=19&lon=-152&info=wv&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=wv3.pal&numframes=10

[tolakram]

A look at SST's

[Frank2]

Just my own opinion that even though the system still appears as a hurricane on satellite, if someone graphed the pressure and wind over the past 24-36 hours they'd notice an increase in pressure and a decrease in wind, so hopefully that's a trend that'll continue...

My posts in this forum are NOT an official forecast. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank

[Ralph's Weather]

I am interested to see how the volcanoes affect this storm. Also the summits are forecasted to have lows in the low 30s during the storm with heavy precip and winds probably gusting to 100 mph, sounds like Fall on Mt Washington.

[euro6208]

Julio and Iselle are very interesting storms because they will affect an area that rarely gets any direct landfall...

As for intensity, I think iselle might not make it to hawaii as a hurricane likely a strong tropical storm...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

70 knts

12, NEQ, 250, 190, 190, 250,
EP, 09, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1498W, 70, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 50, 20, 120, 1011, 160, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1498W, 70, 986, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 20, 0, 50, 1011, 160, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,
EP, 09, 2014080712, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1498W, 70, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 10, 0, 30, 1011, 160, 20, 0, 20, E, 0, , 0, 0, ISELLE, D,

[WeatherGuesser]

Quite a drop from 85 to 70

What do we have, 12 hours? 18?

[Frank2]

Yes, but not a surprise because it's appearance is telling the story...

[CrazyC83]

The previous Recon (with the 75 kt dropsonde) still supports a higher intensity though, unless that was discarded? We will see in the next mission at about 7 am HST (1 pm EDT).

[Alyono]

CHPC has not even mentioned a dropsonde at all. Are they not seeing the data or do they disregard dropsondes?

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane ISELLE Advisory Number 30
Issued at 500 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014
SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 18.5N 150.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 510 MI...825 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 80 MPH...130 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY

[Janie2006]

Based on the latest information it sounds like a good supposition, Iselle striking as a tropical storm as opposed to a hurricane....in my amateur opinion, of course.

Peeps in Hawaii, and especially the big island, need to watch out for the tornadoes. They'll be moving very fast. I've seen them move at 60 mph, for instance. When a warning is issued for tornadic activity, take action at once, cos you won't have much time to get to safety if you happen to be in a direct path.

And if you hiked the tallest mountains in Hawaii it is more than possible, and even likely, that you would see all four seasons in the course of a single hike up and down the mountain: summer at the base, and winter at the top. Nothing unusual there.

[TexWx]

Curious, and I know a little off topic for this particular thread.

Are there any webcam/local news/radio links up yet?
If so, I didn't see them and I apologize.

Thank you...

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA43 PHFO 071501
TCDCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
500 AM HST THU AUG 07 2014

ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISELLE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE CONTINUES
TO BE OBSERVED...AND ISELLE REMAINS A HURRICANE. DATA FROM AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CORROBORATE THE SLIGHT WEAKENING
TREND OBSERVED BY SATELLITE...AS MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT DIMINISHED FROM 100 KT TO 85 KT OVERNIGHT...AND
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS HAVE LOWERED TO NEAR 60 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 4.0/65
KT AND 4.5/77 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ISELLE IS BEING LOWERED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH ISELLE BEING STEERED BY A
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL FORECASTS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS
BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING LANDFALL ALONG WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
THIS EVENING. IN 36 TO 48 HOURS ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK CUT OFF LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND ISELLE WEAKENS...
A NEW RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE WEAKENING
ISELLE...AND THE FORWARD MOTION WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. THE
UPDATED FORECAST TRACK ONLY OFFERS MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS...
AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WELL-PERFORMING CONSENSUS TVCN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE
LANDFALL TONIGHT...DESPITE THE FORECAST OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. ISELLE REMAINS SOUTH OF A RIDGE ALOFT
CENTERED WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE BAJA PENINSULA. A COL...OR WEAKNESS...BETWEEN THESE TWO RIDGES
PROVIDES A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ISELLE WOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...WHEREAS IF
ISELLE WERE TO MOVE WEST OF THE COL AND CLOSER TO THE RIDGE CENTERED
TO THE WEST...THE SHEAR PROFILE WOULD BE MORE DEBILITATING. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEM IS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE OFFERING
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AS TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN ISELLE AND THE
FLOW ALOFT IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH SOME SOLUTIONS TRACKING ISELLE
AND THE COL WESTWARD IN TANDEM...WHILE OTHERS MOVE ISELLE WEST OF
THE COL AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SHEAR. INTERACTION WITH THE
TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ISELLE TONIGHT...
WHILE A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING NORTHWEST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 2 AND 3 WILL BRING STRONGER SHEAR.
INTERACTION WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF
ISELLE...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FORECAST BY DAY 5...CLOSELY
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OFFERED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 18.5N 150.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 19.1N 152.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 19.8N 155.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 158.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 21.0N 161.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 22.5N 165.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 24.4N 171.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 177.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Hurricane_Luis]

Curious, and I know a little off topic for this particular thread.

Are there any webcam/local news/radio links up yet?
If so, I didn't see them and I apologize.

Thank you...

The only one I can find, this one is on the North Eastern coast of the big island. Image quality isn't great though.

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/hawaii/?cam=waikoloa

[Yellow Evan]

Curious, and I know a little off topic for this particular thread.

Are there any webcam/local news/radio links up yet?
If so, I didn't see them and I apologize.

Thank you...

http://www.mybeachcams.com/hawaii/

[Bocadude85]

Iselle outer rainbands are starting to show up on the long range radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HWA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like an uptick in convection on the latest IR. This is about the same time yesterday that convection really started to increase.