Could a hurricane actually make landfall in Los Angeles?

[CaliforniaResident]

Ever seen the movie Sharknado? A meant-to-be stupid-funny-bad unrealistic sci-fi flick about a hurricane making landfall in L.A. spawning sharks in tornadoes. Of course, the scenario in the movie is physically impossible.

However, I was wondering if you weather buffs think given the right set of circumstances, a category 1 hurricane could actually make landfall in Los Angeles in a strong El Nino year as a hurricane itself (not a tropical storm or remains of a hurricane).

What do you think? Since the building codes aren't built for strong winds nor heavy rain, what would be the extent of the damage compared to a comparable size hurricane on the Gulf Coast or mid-Atlantic?

Not that I'm wishing for it to happen but the twin hurricanes heading towards Hawaii and my being fan of Sharknado and a weather buff makes me ponder at the possibilities.

From what I know, a category 1 hurricane has brushed by San Diego in 1858 and a tropical storm with 50 mph winds has made landfall on Long Beach in 1939 but no hurricane has actually made landfall in California in recorded history.

[RL3AO]

I just can't see it. Even during an El Nino year, the water off those coasts is very cold.

[somethingfunny]

Ever seen the movie Sharknado? A meant-to-be stupid-funny-bad unrealistic sci-fi flick about a hurricane making landfall in L.A. spawning sharks in tornadoes. Of course, the scenario in the movie is physically impossible.

However, I was wondering if you'd think given the right set of circumstances, a category 1 hurricane could actually make landfall in Los Angeles in a strong El Nino year as a hurricane itself (not a tropical storm or remains of a hurricane).

What do you think? Since the building codes aren't built for strong winds nor heavy rain, what would be the extent of the damage compared to a comparable size hurricane on the Gulf Coast or mid-Atlantic?

Probably comparable to the wind damage in New York and New Jersey from Sandy, but structural damage not caused by trees would be rare in such a storm. Earthquake construction standards should hold up pretty well to wind too, except perhaps how well the roofs stay affixed to the houses but that's not a concern in a Category 1.

Surge might be an issue on certain shorelines especially with what would most likely be a large transitioning storm with an anomalously low pressure (like Sandy or Ike) approaching at an acute angle to the coast. Especially vulnerable shores would be the ones facing south or particularly southeast on these bays with longer stretches of shallow waters.



Flash flooding would be by far the greatest threat and in all likelihood would be utterly catastrophic in Southern California.

Luckily, as RL3AO said, it's incredibly unlikely to ever happen.

[Yellow Evan]

It has happened before.

[TheStormExpert]

It has happened before.

Wasn't that in San Diego?

[Frank2]

More chance of an earthquake or brushfire than hurricane in Los Angeles- I wouldn't worry about the hurricane issue...

[CaliforniaResident]

More chance of an earthquake or brushfire than hurricane in Los Angeles- I wouldn't worry about the hurricane issue...

Yes; We had several medium sized quakes back in spring and too many brush fires in the mountains to keep track of over the past year (worse than usual because of the drought). Not worried at all about a hurricane but created this thread more as a "what if" scenario in response to the following: Sharknado Movie, The talk of a possible mega-super El Nino from earlier this spring, our unusual summer weather with several instances of monsoonal moisture making it all the way to the L.A. coastline, and the rare twin hurricanes in Hawaii.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It has happened before.

Wasn't that in San Diego?

Exactly, if not could somebody name the storm in question (which made landfall there with a minimum sustained wind speed of 65 kt)?

[galaxy401]

The only way I can really see a hurricane striking there is if it rapidly intensifies west of Baja California and then accelerates northwards.

[WeatherGuesser]

I've asked this question before and never really got an answer I could understand.

If a system can come off Africa, brush the US coast, then go all the way back to Europe, why can't one in the Pacific recurve back into CA, OR or WA?

[RL3AO]

I've asked this question before and never really got an answer I could understand.

If a system can come off Africa, brush the US coast, then go all the way back to Europe, why can't one in the Pacific recurve back into CA, OR or WA?

1) The Atlantic is much warmer in the middle latitudes than the Eastern Pacific.
2) They do. Pacific typhoons often recurve and impact the Aleutian Islands which are about the same latitude as England. Something going into California would be like an Atlantic storm recurving into Northern Africa.

The conditions of the East Pacific off the coast of the US are incredibly inhospitable for anything tropical. The waters are frigid and the shear is usually very high.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I've asked this question before and never really got an answer I could understand.

If a system can come off Africa, brush the US coast, then go all the way back to Europe, why can't one in the Pacific recurve back into CA, OR or WA?

1) The Atlantic is much warmer in the middle latitudes than the Eastern Pacific.
2) They do. Pacific typhoons often recurve and impact the Aleutian Islands which are about the same latitude as England. Something going into California would be like an Atlantic storm recurving into Northern Africa.

The conditions of the East Pacific off the coast of the US are incredibly inhospitable for anything tropical. The waters are frigid and the shear is usually very high.

The Columbus Day Storm of 1962, which was in part caused by Typhoon Freda, is a good example of such a system impacting the Pacific NW:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbus_Day_Storm_of_1962

[RL3AO]

Yep. It happens. Just won't happen in California.

[Yellow Evan]

It has happened before.

Wasn't that in San Diego?

Yes. In 1858.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yep. It happens. Just won't happen in California.

Agreed, I've never heard of anything stronger than a lower end TS making landfall in or around L.A.

[somethingfunny]

Yep. It happens. Just won't happen in California.

A Columbus Day 1962 type of storm probably could hit California, especially Northern California but I suppose that given the right jetstream setup a powerful extratropical Aleutian Low could ram itself even into Southern California. That would most likely occur in late Autumn if it were to ever occur.

[Steve820]

This is very unlikely to actually happen, especially since the waters off the coast are too cold. I live in the Los Angeles area, and lucky for me, we never get hurricanes here but there's still a slight chance we could see one in my lifetime.

[curtadams]

Since a tropical storm did hit San Diego, it's almost certainly possible that one could hit Los Angeles. During El Ninos the water can warm up quite a bit - I recall temps up to 80 in one of the El Ninos. I don't think it's impossible that a fluky weather pattern could warm things up enough that we'd could get one. Obviously it would be *quite* a fluke, given that we haven't had one in SoCal for 150 years.

Los Angeles is a lot less vulnerable to surge than you'd think, because of the high relief. Most areas rise pretty sharply from the beach. Los Angeles is the only coastal city in North American where the downtown would survive a full-out global warming with Antarctica melting. Of course, it's still big, wealthy, and populous enough that it could be very bad, sort of like with Sandy.

[Alyono]

maybe if there was something like the unnamed storm of 2006 in the north central Pacific, which forms over cold waters and can remain in a low relative shear zone

[WeatherGuesser]

2) They do. Pacific typhoons often recurve and impact the Aleutian Islands which are about the same latitude as England. Something going into California would be like an Atlantic storm recurving into Northern Africa.

I seem to remember one not too many years back that recurved and went into either Spain or France, can't remember now or how strong it was when it got there. May have only been remnants.

But that would be about the same latitude as NorCal or Oregon.