Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

From the San Juan NWS Friday mornings discussion.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

[tropicwatch]

Sort of typical for this year so far

[blp]

From the San Juan NWS Friday mornings discussion.

IN THE LONG RANGE...UP TO NOW THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST RUN...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE LOW
OPENING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES 40 WEST. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED LATE THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

The pattern is pretty clear and what we expected which was for strong waves moving off Africa only to find hostile conditions past 40W. I see the dry air lessening some in the last week and I believe it will continue to improve and we are also in a different pattern than last year when conditions only got worse as the season progressed. The first few strong waves are going to have to pave the wave and sacrifice in order to moisten the atmosphere for the others. The GFS and Euro are just now picking up on these first strong waves in the long range that will either be sacrificial lambs or sleepers if they can get past 60W.

[tolakram]

Shear is now normal to below normal in all zones.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/atlantic_00-24.asp

[Frank2]

Compared to the Pacific the Atlantic active season is very short - almost mid-August now and once the season moves into October the statistics begin to drop off sharply so we'll see, but the ISS yesterday posted a photo on Twitter of large sandstorms over Africa, so more dust to deal with - it seems the samdstorms are one major inhibiting factor from year to year, even beyond shear and SSTs...

https://mobile.twitter.com/astro_reid/s ... 37/photo/1

[ninel conde]

the fact is the desert dry air is at historic levels. every season just gets drier and drier. shear could be zero right now and it wouldnt matter.

[perk]

the fact is the desert dry air is at historic levels. every season just gets drier and drier. shear could be zero right now and it wouldnt matter.

Dry air is not an issue in the Carribean, western Atlantic, and the GOM.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

No but the shear and hostile conditions due to cold fronts and east coast troughs closer to home has been the rule not the exception.

.LONG TERM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRANSITION TO A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AT MIDWEEK.

[northjaxpro]

No but the shear and hostile conditions due to cold fronts and east coast troughs closer to home has been the rule not the exception.

.LONG TERM... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRANSITION TO A WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN PUSHING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA AT MIDWEEK.

Yeah, these troughs keep coming down one after the other. This upcoming trough will bring a front down into Georgia by Monday, enhancing our rain chances here in my area Monday and Tuesday.

Definitely, if this pattern persits, as it has for most of this summer to this point, we won't have to worry about any tropical cyclones affecting Florida or the U.S. East Coast in general for sure as they will all just get carried out to sea with the mid latitude westerlies.

[ConvergenceZone]

If we don't get our C storm in the next 2 and 1/2 weeks(by the end of August basically), I may have to lower my total season prediction from making it to "G" down to making it to only "F".....

[SFLcane]

ugly ugly....

[northjaxpro]

I would probably think that given the hostile conditions across the North Atlantic basin, we will be hard pressed to see any development for at least the next couple of weeks. May see something by the latter part of this month maybe from the MDR if conditions can at least moisten up some out there.

I still believe that activity will pick up in September and October. I'm still inclined to think that the Western Carribbean and at some point the GOM will begin to finally come alive to get conditions conducive for some tropical cyclones to develop. I still think we can get at least 8-10 named storms before the season ends.

[StarmanHDB]

the fact is the desert dry air is at historic levels. every season just gets drier and drier. shear could be zero right now and it wouldnt matter.

Ah, yes! The Atlantic Hurricane season in early to mid August! A time when pro-mets post until their fingers grow callouses and rationalists feel like punching their monitors. A time when "people I disagree with" start to worry because the season isn't a repeat performance of 2005.

Sorry people, but the basin is not any drier than usual and wind shear is average for this time of year. So wish all you want, complain all you can. Either way, facts are facts and Fact #1 is that climatology has the Atlantic season proceeding at a very normal pace of 2 named storms for this time of year (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/).

Speaking of facts, although I am totally fascinated by tropical cyclones, I like having electricity, running water, and a roof over my head (as do many who read and participate in this forum). Please remember this fact when you post about your dissapointment over this or that T-wave falling apart or about the dryness of the basin or about how slow the season is going.

Thanks!

PS. Waiting for all of the "you are so wrong / we are not that way Starman" posts....WHATEVER!

[WPBWeather]

the fact is the desert dry air is at historic levels. every season just gets drier and drier. shear could be zero right now and it wouldnt matter.

You are overstating things again. What's up with your one track here?

[psyclone]

I agree that things look pretty bleak right now for TC development but things can change quickly especially as we dig into the heart of the season. we just started to climb the mountain of climo activity a week ago and while I agree with the quieter than usual forecasts, I wouldn't be surprised if this season surprises to the upside by the time the dust settles. We humans have a tendency to be biased by recent experiences so it's easy to continue to bet that the persistent trend of a lack of activity will remain intact (it's been working for a long time). and it will continue to work until it doesn't. As Herb Stein said "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop". that is certainly true of the quiet period we find ourselves in. In the interim, enjoy the downtime. I just stepped outside and I can't imagine suffering without electricity in the wake of a storm. The tranquility is a real blessing.

[tolakram]

The Atlantic is experiencing record dry mid levels, which I suppose can be called historic, but only as far as we've ever measured it. So that much, at least, is accurate.

I do concur that there is a large contingent of folks who are still expecting every season to be more active than normal, which is just not going to happen.

Regardless, lets all try and remember to stay respectful.

The unusually dry and stable conditions in the deep tropics continue, and they will continue until they don't. That's about all we know.

[somethingfunny]

Geesh, the dirt hasn't even settled on *Hurricane* Bertha's grave and you guys are already back at it canceling the season. Anyway... This is a thread for discussing the model runs. Go find one of the other threads to have this discussion in. A moderator already warned about this the last time you guys were canceling the season in this thread - it was right before Bertha formed.

[Blown Away]

Models hardly showing anything significant nearing end of August... Becoming the norm...

[northjaxpro]

Yeah in response to somethingfunny, I don't necessarily think we are veering off topic per say or canceling the season. At least I wasn't. It is just what Blown Away was stating, that the models currently are not showing anything at least through the next 5 days and probably longer beccuase of the SAL.

The discussion the past few posts have mostly been about what the current trends are depicting, at least my above posts. Now, it can change, but likely will not until the African waves can moisten up things out there in the MDR. That will take some time, but I can see one of those CV waves possibly getting going by the latter part of August or so.

[ConvergenceZone]

I would probably think that given the hostile conditions across the North Atlantic basin, we will be hard pressed to see any development for at least the next couple of weeks. May see something by the latter part of this month maybe from the MDR if conditions can at least moisten up some out there.

I still believe that activity will pick up in September and October. I'm still inclined to think that the Western Carribbean and at some point the GOM will begin to finally come alive to get conditions conducive for some tropical cyclones to develop. I still think we can get at least 8-10 named storms before the season ends.

It is hard to believe that hurricane season will be winding down in a couple of months, man the summer goes fast!
I too think that September will be more active.... I'm thinking C, D and E Storms in September. so hopefully the global models will start to show some development to begin in September....