ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2014081012, , BEST, 0, 111N, 205W, 20, 1011, LO

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116555&hilit=&start=0

[gatorcane]

Saved VIS image:

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, 1011 mb analyzed at initialization. Definitely see why NHC tagged this as an invest.


Let the discussion begin. This very well may be our first real bonifide long tracker of the season. We shall see.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yay! Something to track!

I'll probably be at home this week, so I need something to do.

PS: I can't remember what MDR stands for. Can someone remind me? Thanks.

[northjaxpro]

Also, this is another quick reminder of how quickly the tropics can change. Late Friday into early Saturday, the reliable guidance did not forsee any development through at least five days out and probably longer.

Now, we have Invest 94L off the African coast. Gotta love the tropics folks. Just shows how quickly the elements can change out there.

[northjaxpro]

Yay! Something to track!

I'll probably be at home this week, so I need something to do.

PS: I can't remember what MDR stands for. Can someone remind me? Thanks.

MDR- Main Development Region

[cycloneye]

Also, this is another quick reminder of how quickly the tropics can change. Late Friday into early Saturday, the relioable guidance did not forsee any development through at least five days out and probably longer.

Now, we ha e Invest 94 off the African coast. Gotta love the tropics folks. Just shows how quickly the elements can change out there.

Climo favors 94L because is August so we will see down the road how it deals with the environment aka dry air..

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, cycloneye this will be the main storyline for sure. Will climo favor 94L now that we are entering the CV season? Or will ole Uncle SAL cripple 94L on its journey across the Eastern Atlantic? Time will tell for sure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Yeah, cycloneye this will be the tale of this story for sure. Will climo favor 94L now that we are entering the CV season? Or will ole Uncle SAL cripple 94L on its journey across the Eastern Atlantic? Time will tell for sure.

WV looks pretty good in the near future at least, but I know that doesn't portray SAL very well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/wv-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

94L floater is up, saved image loop. Some spin and some convection, but quite disorganized:

[NDG]

The only thing that 94L has working for in the short term is that the MJO is in phase 2, but there is still plenty of dry air left in the middle of the Atlantic, its future does not look to bright, IMO.
I am not going to get too much worked into this invest unless I see the Euro come aboard with development.

[northjaxpro]

NDG, that is my line of thinking as well. Still lots of dry, stable air out there awaiting 94L

[wxman57]

Conditions look quite hostile in its path all the way through the Caribbean. Might be possible to squeeze a poorly-organized TD or very weak TS out of it by the time it reaches the Caribbean. Lots and lots of dry, sinking air in its path. Phil Klotzbach emailed me the other day saying that the MDR was 4 standard deviations drier than normal at 600mb in July (period of record 1981-2010).

[Fego]

How interesting are the comments about each new system with development possibilities. From "it has a chance" to "it won't survive". Mother nature has the real time answer, but is worth to try to be a step ahead of her.

[blp]

West of 40 looks quite hostile but these kind of strong waves are necessary this time of the year and could serve as sacrifical to at least moisten the atmosphere for the other waves coming later in the month.

[cycloneye]

JB is JB but he has an interesting message.

‏@BigJoeBastardi · 47m
Pattern in the atlantic will grow more favorable now. Summer coming for last 1-2 weeks August in east, tropics get more active

[NDG]

:uarrow: NDG, that is my line of thinking as well. Still lots of dry, stable air out there awaiting 94L

Yeah, and that comment of mine was before I looked at the analyzed shear by the 12z SHIPS of 23 knots out of the east and it shows not to led up through at least the next 24-36 hrs, ouch! So even with the current moist air environment (700-500 MB RH 71%) that it is in right now it may struggle to organize with such a strong easterly shear.

[perk]

Conditions look quite hostile in its path all the way through the Caribbean. Might be possible to squeeze a poorly-organized TD or very weak TS out of it by the time it reaches the Caribbean. Lots and lots of dry, sinking air in its path. Phil Klotzbach emailed me the other day saying that the MDR was 4 standard deviations drier than normal at 600mb in July (period of record 1981-2010).

What about conditions once it reaches the carribean.

[WPBWeather]

Conditions look quite hostile in its path all the way through the Caribbean. Might be possible to squeeze a poorly-organized TD or very weak TS out of it by the time it reaches the Caribbean. Lots and lots of dry, sinking air in its path. Phil Klotzbach emailed me the other day saying that the MDR was 4 standard deviations drier than normal at 600mb in July (period of record 1981-2010).

Not to put too fine a point on it, this sounds more like a lagging indicator and not a great predictor of what may come.

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 94L by Dr Jeff Masters.

A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 11°N, 21°W on Sunday morning, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC . Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off of Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 - 30 knots, but the 8 am EDT Sunday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the moderate range on Monday afternoon, then to the low range on Tuesday afternoon. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and should arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday, according to the Sunday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 30%, respectively. Mid-August is the time when the Atlantic hurricane season kicks into high gear, and 94L is definitely a disturbance we need to watch.