ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Discussion

[weathernerdguy]

anyone remember Bertha?

[cycloneye]

ASCAT missed 94L.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

*Cough, hack*

[tropicwatch]

The dry air looks pretty nasty.

[Nimbus]

This must have been from pouch 16L?
I was beginning to think we would have to wait till red October for the next invest.
At a minimum the circulation will moisten up the ITCZ for 17L, so its probably good the NHC is giving the heads up.

[northjaxpro]

That is brutal the amount of dry, sinking air facing 94L. If 94L can get through that, it would be really something to say the least. A very serious and daunting task ahead for 94L to survive through that.

[Hurricane Andrew]

SAL looks bad, but WV imagery seems very moist. So...which is more important a factor to TCs?

[NDG]

SAL looks bad, but WV imagery seems very moist. So...which is more important a factor to TCs?

This image of the WV looks very dry to me, don't go by the eastern Atlantic's WV imagery from the European Sat, I noticed that it tends to over exaggerate the moisture content in that area.

[cycloneye]

If and is a big if 94L survives the MDR treck,it will be interesting to see what occurs when it reaches the Western Caribbean if it gets good environmental conditions.

[cycloneye]

This must have been from pouch 16L?
I was beginning to think we would have to wait till red October for the next invest.
At a minimum the circulation will moisten up the ITCZ for 17L, so its probably good the NHC is giving the heads up.

This is pouch 013L.You can follow the posts since that thread at Talking Tropics started.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116555&hilit=&start=0

[Hurricane Andrew]

SAL looks bad, but WV imagery seems very moist. So...which is more important a factor to TCs?

This image of the WV looks very dry to me, don't go by the eastern Atlantic's WV imagery from the European Sat, I noticed that it tends to over exaggerate the moisture content in that area.

Oh. That explains a lot. Thanks.

We will have to see if it can shrug off the dry air. Shear looks to decrease in a few days, so at least it has that going for it.

Cycloneeye, do you have one of those maps for the MDR?

[blp]

If and is a big if 94L survives the MDR treck,it will be interesting to see what occurs when it reaches the Western Caribbean if it gets good environmental conditions.

[img]http://oi59.tinypic.com/2m6qsty.jpg[/]

That is amazing THCP for early August. Even 2005 did not have it that high at this time. Quite impressive.

[NDG]

If and is a big if 94L survives the MDR treck,it will be interesting to see what occurs when it reaches the Western Caribbean if it gets good environmental conditions.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/2m6qsty.jpg

Not surprised at all how warm and deep the warm waters of the western Caribbean and extreme SE GOM is, it went all last year without being tapped at all.

[alienstorm]

Seems to me that the actual circulation maybe to the SW where the main trust of the activity is. Could be the MLC

[cycloneye]

Up to 40% thru 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is
located a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.
This disturbance continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
showers, and some slow development of this system is possible over
the next several days while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

SAL looks bad, but WV imagery seems very moist. So...which is more important a factor to TCs?

Water vapor images show moisture content at the upper levels of the atmosphere. SAL tends to exist below that layer, and so can a lot of dry air.

EDIT: which is why a lot of people use 500mb RH (provided by the SHIPS) to determine whether dry air will be an issue or not.

[Sanibel]

Conditions were brutal on Bertha but it is getting close to prime time and it only takes one system to blow out the negativity.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 94, 2014081018, , BEST, 0, 111N, 215W, 20, 1011, LO

[Nederlander]

SAL looks bad, but WV imagery seems very moist. So...which is more important a factor to TCs?

Water Vapor imagery is looking at mid to upper levels of the troposphere. SAL is lower in the troposphere and more detrimental to TC's. This map shows the SAL.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Thank you to those who answered my question. Very good info to know.