ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 101254
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 UTC SUN AUG 10 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942014) 20140810 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140810 1200 140811 0000 140811 1200 140812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 20.5W 11.6N 22.5W 12.6N 24.6W 13.7N 27.4W
BAMD 11.1N 20.5W 11.4N 23.1W 12.2N 25.8W 13.1N 28.6W
BAMM 11.1N 20.5W 11.3N 23.0W 12.1N 25.6W 13.2N 28.4W
LBAR 11.1N 20.5W 11.4N 23.4W 12.1N 26.7W 13.0N 30.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140812 1200 140813 1200 140814 1200 140815 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 30.8W 15.9N 38.2W 16.0N 45.1W 15.6N 52.1W
BAMD 14.2N 31.6W 16.0N 37.1W 17.1N 41.8W 17.9N 46.5W
BAMM 14.3N 31.7W 15.8N 38.1W 16.4N 44.0W 16.5N 50.4W
LBAR 13.9N 33.8W 15.3N 40.3W 16.1N 45.7W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 41KTS 52KTS 58KTS 63KTS
DSHP 41KTS 52KTS 58KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

The GFS has the invest passing through the Leewards by the end of day 7 at 168 hours:

[Hurricane Andrew]

The GFS has the invest passing through the Leewards by the end of day 7 at 168 hours:

Still pretty weak. But I wound't trust the GFS for intensity guidance on a tropical wave. Nonetheless, I guess the ridging must be pretty strong. No Bertha-esque trough to sweep this one up.

[gatorcane]

Track guidance graphic:



Intensity graphic:

[perk]

Track guidance graphic:



Intensity graphic:

I can't wait to get model runs from the big boys.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody know where we can find the recently upgraded UKMET model runs to see what it is doing with this?

[Blown Away]

72 hour forecast position...

[blp]

Ridge looks to be strong ahead of this one. Could be a carribean cruiser if it makes it.

[SFLcane]

Strong ridge over head with this one BUT until we do something with all that dry sinking air mass in the central atl its

[cycloneye]

12z GFS sends 94L to BOC.

[Frank2]

Strong ridge over head with this one BUT until we do something with all that dry sinking air mass in the central atl its...

That's probably why the early model runs do not seem to indicate much strenghening or a leveling off in strengthening - my own opinion...

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Bam Models.

000
WHXX01 KWBC 101737
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1737 UTC SUN AUG 10 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942014) 20140810 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140810 1800 140811 0600 140811 1800 140812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 21.5W 12.1N 23.2W 13.2N 25.4W 14.2N 28.3W
BAMD 11.1N 21.5W 11.3N 24.5W 12.0N 27.4W 12.9N 30.4W
BAMM 11.1N 21.5W 11.6N 24.0W 12.8N 26.5W 13.8N 29.4W
LBAR 11.1N 21.5W 11.4N 24.3W 12.3N 27.6W 13.2N 31.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140812 1800 140813 1800 140814 1800 140815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 31.4W 15.6N 38.3W 15.3N 44.9W 14.4N 52.1W
BAMD 13.9N 33.5W 15.0N 39.2W 15.0N 44.5W 14.4N 50.4W
BAMM 14.8N 32.4W 15.9N 38.4W 16.0N 44.4W 15.6N 51.5W
LBAR 14.2N 34.4W 15.2N 40.6W 12.0N 44.8W 0.0N 0.0W
SHIP 37KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS
DSHP 37KTS 49KTS 58KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 21.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 19.4W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 17.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12z GFS ensembles.

[Hurricane Andrew]

18z Early. Why do they bring 94L to a WNW heading so soon?

[floridasun78]

nhc forecaster i talk to say we need see what gfs show later this week dont go early run of gfs

[gatorcane]

12z GFS sends 94L to BOC.

Had the long-range GFS developed this system into a deeper system in the Western Caribbean, however, I think it would have shown it turning to the north or northwest as the GFS is showing a weakness over the SE US area that develops in the 7-10 day range. In fact there is a group of long-range GFS ensembles that show 94L turning Northwest in the Western Caribbean. The ECMWF is also showing this weakness too and is even more pronounced.

Long-range GFS ensembles at 276 hours:

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model, 168 hours, a bit further north than the GFS on it's approach to the Leewards:

[gatorcane]

Graphic with some latest model plots:

[SFLcane]

Some 00z models now north of the islands...dusty road

[bamajammer4eva]

Some 00z models now north of the islands...dusty road

[img]http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_94.gif

HWRF is on it though. Sends it towards the Equator