ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Discussion

[floridasun78]

i have connect the nhc about talk season over because of dry air .their expecting this area dry air to start getting smaller soon season not over as some saying we will may see few more storm before oct

[gatorcane]

Here is where I see the dry air (I marked up the wide-view Atlantic image below). Assuming dry air does not invade the MDR south of 15N in the area to the east of the Lesser Antilles between about 45W and 60W, which I don't think it will, 94L could make depression or T.S. status in this area on its journey west across the MDR towards the Caribbean...



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[Hurricane Andrew]

My first attempt at this kind of forecast.



THIS POST IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH. THIS IS THE OPINION OF THE POSTER AND MAY OR MAY NOT BE BACKED BY SOUND METEOROLOGICAL DATA. THIS POST IS NOT ENDORSED BY AND PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTION OR STORM2K.ORG. FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION, PLEASE REFER TO NHC/NWS PRODUCTS.

[Frank2]

With that amount of dry air out there I wouldn't bet the ranch that'll do much...

[HurricaneTracker2031]

We have 94L. This should be interesting as we enter Mid-August. 94L may be one to watch. I think 94L may develop sometime late next week or later.

Synopsis for 94L and other systems: http://goo.gl/GSuPHg

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TheStormExpert]

I just can't see this developing. Conditions in it's path are just plain HORRIBLE! Dry Air, SAL, more Dry Air, and possible Wind Shear.

Don't know why the NHC is giving this such a high chance of development, even Joe Bastardi tweeted about it. Conditions are even worse than they were for Bertha.

[Ntxw]

There's more to it than dry air. We've heard that term a lot lately but equally as important, is sinking air. This prevents waves from popping convection to fend off the dry air (think Bertha). Kelvin waves can help deviate sinking air, but there is non present or expected at this time for 94L.

[abajan]

I just can't see this developing. Conditions in it's path are just plain HORRIBLE! Dry Air, SAL, more Dry Air, and possible Wind Shear.

Don't know why the NHC is giving this such a high chance of development, even Joe Bastardi tweeted about it. Conditions are even worse than they were for Bertha.

Perhaps they are looking at the SSTs. Lots of 28+ degree temps out there. Then there's climo to consider FWIW.

[TheStormExpert]

We saw how that one day the Kelvin Wave passed it attempted to briefly bring instability up to normal levels for just less than 24hrs. then once it passed it was back to the bone dry Tropical Atlantic. So if the only way to get normal/decent levels of instability is for Kelvin Wave or the dreaded MJO to come around then we are probably going to struggle to get very far this season IMO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

:uarrow: We saw how that one day the Kelvin Wave passed it attempted to briefly bring instability up to normal levels for just less than 24hrs. then once it passed it was back to the bone dry Tropical Atlantic. So if the only way to get normal/decent levels of instability is for Kelvin Wave or the dreaded MJO to come around then we are probably going to struggle to get very far this season IMO.

Conditions like better in the Carrribean.

[ninel conde]

i doubt it makes it to the caribbean

[Nimbus]

This time of year you would expect the train of African waves to start. Pouch 17L just a few days behind 94L has a lot of moisture so ultra dry conditions may not persist. If the current upper level steering holds, it would appear to favor lower latitude Caribbean runners. It doesn't take many of those to ruin your day, so hopefully all that hostile dry air subsidence and shear will kepp things in check. Maybe the mid Atlantic TUTT will come back by September.

[cycloneye]

i doubt it makes it to the caribbean

Any reasoning?

[TheStormExpert]

i doubt it makes it to the caribbean

Any reasoning?

All the SAL and Dry Air in it's path in the Tropical Atlantic, as well as marginal SST's, and Wind Shear.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure
is located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next several days while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[gatorcane]

5-day graphic, a little bit more of a WNW bend at the end:

[abajan]

5-day graphic, a little bit more of a WNW bend at the end:

http://i57.tinypic.com/2mn5dv5.jpg

Sharp eyes!

[wxman57]

You can't see the dry mid to upper-level air on satellite, but the instability chart indicates there is plenty of dry, sinking air in the Tropical Atlantic. Might be a brief development window as it nears the Caribbean. Pretty stable there, too, though. I have no doubt it will reach the Caribbean around next Saturday then the western Caribbean around Wednesday of next week.

[floridasun78]

like i say i spoke one caster from nhc their told me that dry air wont issue soon that area of dry air going small as week go by 94l likely going issue by next weekend

[srainhoutx]

Look for a bit of a merge with the convection off the West Coast of Africa and the easterly wave behind it nearing Western Africa. As long as the general area of disturbed weather persists near or just S of 10N along the ITCZ, it could begin to develop as it enters the Caribbean Sea next Sunday. If the vorticity increases just N of the ABC Islands, then we could see a shot at a threat to Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula near a week from Thursday/Friday. I see no real development until it passes 55W at this time.