CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[Equilibrium]

The ridge JULIO is steered by would have to raise some concerns in the the track going by the Navgem 12z. It clearly would be the reason for that anticipated steep drop to the south on the outline track model on the previous page.



How close that ridge gets is evident on the vapour sat top LH corner . Just something to consider.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Meh, NAVEGEM isn't the best of models.

[Equilibrium]

Meh, NAVEGEM isn't the best of models.

Think its a lot better than the cmc you consistently go to imo.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It would be interesting if Julio crosses the IDL as a tropical storm, and it would mean that the 2014 WPAC season has 2 storms from EPAC (which retained their names) in a row that crossed the IDL. It would be the first year to do so, since reliable record-keeping had began.

[Equilibrium]

[somethingfunny]

It's been a while since we've seen a hurricane pass north of Hawaii... In fact I don't think I've ever seen it myself! I know Hurricane Hiki did it in 1950 and dropped 52" of Rain on Kauai in the process, a record which still stands as the wettest tropical cyclone in US history. Hopefully Julio will stay far enough offshore to not bring a similar deluge. Due to cyclonic flow and orographic lift, the typically dry sides of the islands would be the wet side during Julio.

[Equilibrium]

Unless there is a weakness in the ridge it will cut it very close imo.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA44 PHFO 101500
TCDCP4

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

DATA FROM A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT THAT
DEPARTED FROM JULIO HAVE BEEN INVALUABLE IN PROVIDING OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE NORMALLY DATA VOID REGION ABOVE THE OPEN OCEAN NORTHEAST OF
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE IN SITU MEASUREMENTS PROVIDED A
UNIQUE AWARENESS OF ANY SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE MOTION...INTENSITY AND
STRUCTURE OF JULIO COMPARED WITH HAVING SATELLITE DATA ALONE. TOWARD
THE END OF THE FLIGHT...THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF WEAKENING OF THE
HURRICANE...AS THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE FILLED ABOUT 3 MB. OF MORE IMPORTANCE TO
THOSE OF US WHO ARE TRYING TO DETERMINE THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF
SYSTEMS LIKE JULIO...THE AIRCRAFT DATA WERE EXTREMELY USEFUL IN
DETERMINING THE WIND RADII IN ALL FOUR QUADRANTS OF THE HURRICANE. A
VERY FORTUNATE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0752Z WAS AVAILABLE ON
THE NRL AND FNMOC WEB SITES. THIS PASS INCLUDED ALMOST ALL OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH SOUTHEAST OCTANTS OF
THE STORM...AND ALLOWED SOME COMPARISONS WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.
NOTE THAT THIS PARTICULAR ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 65 KT WITHIN 25 TO 30 NM NORTHEAST OF THE
APPARENT CENTER OF JULIO. THIS IS SIGNIFICANT SINCE THE ASCAT DATA
AT THESE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS TEND HAVE A LOW BIAS. IN ADDITION TO THE
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES WERE 4.0 AT SAB...4.5 AT
JTWC AND 5.0 AT PHFO. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS
YIELDS 4.3. SINCE MOST OF THESE SOURCES OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE APPEAR
TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF REDUCED TO 75
KT.

JULIO IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT ALONG
THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND JULIO
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...BEFORE RETURNING TO THE U.S. MAINLAND.
ONCE THESE DATA WERE INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST MODELS...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE BECAME MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE PAST TWO FORECAST
CYCLES COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE WE RECEIVED 12 HOURS AGO. AS A
RESULT...WE HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN OUR TRACK FORECAST
TONIGHT COMPARED WITH THE ONE MADE BEFORE THESE DATA WERE AVAILABLE
FOR THE MODEL SUITE. THE COMBINATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF JULIO AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
DOWN WEST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP JULIO MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THE FORECAST SHOWS JULIO WILL MOVE AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED
STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. JULIO IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN
TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT BY DAY 2...AND CONTINUE
THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH DAY 5.

RECENT LOOPS OF SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEAR TO SHOW THE EYE IS BECOMING
OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE WESTERN EYEWALL WHERE DEEPER
CONVECTION DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF
SOME HOSTILE CONDITIONS THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING DUE IN PART TO
RELATIVELY STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS OVER
20 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACCORDING TO LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS...AND
ABOUT 15 KT BASED ON SHIPS GUIDANCE. SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MARGINAL AT AROUND 26C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WHILE THE
ENTRAINMENT OF COOL...DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AIR INTO JULIO SHOULD
EVENTUALLY INHIBIT VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION NEEDED TO MAINTAIN
HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. NOTE ALSO THAT
THE LATEST CIRA ANALYSIS OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE TRACK OF
JULIO BRINGS IT ACROSS MARGINAL VALUES OF THIS PARAMETER STARTING
AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST...FOLLOWS
CLOSELY THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS INDICATES THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF JULIO DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSSIBLY BEING DOWNGRADED TO A STRONG TROPICAL
STORM BY LATE MONDAY...IF NOT SOONER. THIS FOLLOWS THE LATEST OUTPUT
FROM THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...OR ICON...AND MOST OF THE INDIVIDUAL
INTENSITY MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 23.8N 152.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 24.7N 153.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 25.7N 154.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 26.3N 156.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 26.9N 157.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 29.0N 163.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.5N 166.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[somethingfunny]

Julio looks great today! I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane pass north of Hawaii in the satellite era - this is very rare. I wonder why the typical Hawaiian shear wall isn't there right now, and how long it might remain absent.

[TheStormExpert]

Why is there always so much shear around the Hawaiian Islands?

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Why is there always so much shear around the Hawaiian Islands?

Troughs.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Why is there always so much shear around the Hawaiian Islands?

TUTT induces shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Hurricane JULIO Advisory Number 28
Issued at 1100 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 24.6N 152.9W
ABOUT 345 MI...550 KM NE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 90 MPH...150 KM/H
Present movement: NW or 320 degrees AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2014

A 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED
PASSES THROUGH JULIO...PROVIDING CRITICAL DATA ON THE CYCLONE/S
INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. GIVEN THAT JULIO IS NO LONGER DEEMED TO BE
A THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII...THIS WILL BE LAST RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT INTO THE CYCLONE. FOR THOSE CURIOUS ABOUT THE UNUSUAL TRIP TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT THE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MADE...THIS WAS DONE AT THE
REQUEST OF THE US COAST GUARD...IN ORDER TO ASSIST IN COMMUNICATING
WITH A SAILING VESSEL THAT WAS IN DISTRESS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF JULIO.

LATEST DATA INDICATE THAT JULIO REMAINS A HURRICANE...AND MAY HAVE
ACTUALLY INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 94 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT WERE OBSERVED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
THE EYE BECAME CLOUD-FILLED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT
AIRCRAFT DATA AND SSMI/S OVERPASSES AT 1521Z AND 1603Z INDICATED
THAT AN ELONGATED EYE CONTINUED...WITH THE EYE MORE APPARENT IN
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AT ADVISORY TIME. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FIXES
RANGED FROM 4.0/65 KT TO 4.5/77 KT...AND A BLEND OF THE DATA...WITH
AN EMPHASIS GIVEN TO THOSE RECEIVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT...LEADS TO AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/11 KT...WITH JULIO EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
EAST AND A LOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS...THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND JULIO
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF FAIRLY LIGHT STEERING WINDS
BETWEEN MID LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED TO IT/S EAST AND WEST...WITH
FORWARD MOTION SLOWING CONSIDERABLY BEYOND TAU 12. THE FORECAST
EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN HAS LED TO QUITE A CHANGE IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE WITH THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING SHARPLY TO THE
RIGHT FROM EARLIER. THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT...
SHIFTING THE TRACK MARGINALLY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER TERM...BUT REMAINING ON THE LEFT HAND
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT OF AN
OUTLIER TO THE WEST. JULIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A JOG TOWARD THE WEST IS INDUCED BY
THE RIDGE BUILDING TO IT/S EAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. BY TAU 96
AND 120...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO TURN JULIO NORTHWARD...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER TAU 120.

ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JULIO GAINING LATITUDE...SSTS
ALONG THE TRACK ACTUALLY INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...DUE TO WATER
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM...BY ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS...BASED ON LATEST NOAA/NESDIS ANALYSES. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO AN
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR MASS...WITH SHEAR POTENTIALLY DIMINISHING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AT THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE
UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 24.6N 152.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 25.6N 153.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 26.6N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 27.4N 155.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 28.0N 157.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.0N 159.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.0N 160.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 34.0N 159.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[galaxy401]

What is the farthest north a storm has been able to hold hurricane intensity in the Pacific?

[Yellow Evan]

What is the farthest north a storm has been able to hold hurricane intensity in the Pacific?

Pretty far north if you ask me

[TheStormExpert]

What is the farthest north a storm has been able to hold hurricane intensity in the Pacific?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

Pretty far north if you ask me

What storm would that be?

[Yellow Evan]

What is the farthest north a storm has been able to hold hurricane intensity in the Pacific?

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _track.png

Pretty far north if you ask me

What storm would that be?

A hurricane #12 in 1975.

[CrazyC83]

Heroic hurricane hunters today! They helped out on a mayday call...

[CrazyC83]

What was the last EPAC/CPAC storm to make it past 30N latitude as a hurricane? Heck getting to 30N as a tropical storm isn't too common in that basin.