WPAC: GENEVIEVE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Now displaying a very small 15 nm eye...

WDPN32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07E (GENEVIEVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 821 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC, TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH A DEFINED
15 NM EYE. ADDITIONALLY, A 081952Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
AN INTENSE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A DEFINED EYE WITH A
LARGE BANDING FEATURE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE
SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE HIGH END DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 127 TO 120 KNOTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 07E REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST, AS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07E IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND
ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, WHICH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 72
AS VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO A COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE RAPIDLY
EASTWARD WITHIN ZONAL MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND POSSIBLY CREATE A
BREAK IN THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WIDE VARIETY OF
SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT (GFS, JENS), A FAST
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL HIGH (ECMWF), A WEAK
RE-CURVE (COAMPS-TC, EGRR) AND A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK (NVGM,
GFDN). DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT PAST TAU 72, THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST DEPICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS. TY 07E IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT
TRACKS NORTH OF 30N DUE TO COOLER SST RANGING FROM 24 TO 25C.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 090305
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON GENEVIEVE (07E) ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU EP072014
200 PM CHST SAT AUG 9 2014

...TYPHOON GENEVIEVE (07E)INCREASES FORWARD SPEED...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.3N 176.4E

ABOUT 640 MILES EAST OF WAKE ISLAND
ABOUT 985 MILES NORTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN
ABOUT 975 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE...020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF TYPHOON GENEVIEVE WAS LOCATED
BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 176.4
DEGREES EAST.

GENEVIEVE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 13 MPH. A SLOW TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ABOUT HALF-WAY BETWEEN
WAKE ISLAND AND MIDWAY ISLAND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 145 MPH. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 140 MILES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 PM TONIGHT.

$$

ZIOBRO

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Genevieve will continue to weaken over the next couple of days. It formed from Eastern Pacific and made it all the way over to the Western Pacific. Very Cool

Synopsis for Genevieve and other systems: http://goo.gl/lhnjXY

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1413 (GENEVIEVE)
Issued at 10:00 UTC, 10 August 2014

<Analyses at 10/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N29°30'(29.5°)
E174°35'(174.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 10/21 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N32°25'(32.4°)
E171°40'(171.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 11/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N34°30'(34.5°)
E169°40'(169.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 12/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°50'(35.8°)
E168°40'(168.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 13/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N37°05'(37.1°)
E169°05'(169.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1008hPa
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[jaguarjace]

07E GENEVIEVE 140809 2300 28.0N 175.0E EPAC 95 NA

[euro6208]

[somethingfunny]

I know we've seen this before from Genevieve, but I think this may finally be the end. What a ride this has been!