ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 94, 2014081100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 230W, 20, 1011, LO

[gatorcane]

Saved IR loop image:

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2014


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N22W TO
19N20W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 17W-25W AS DEPICTED IN THE SENEGAL
RAWINDSONDES AND THE GFS ANALYSIS. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS SOUTH
OF A 30-40 KT AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N17W.

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's post: Julio Moves Into The Open Pacific While the Atlantic Heats Up. #Bertha Reaches Europe. #Julio #SuperMoon #94L http://wp.me/p1xnuB-hI

Includes some interesting night-time visible imagery.

[latitude_20]

:uarrow: We saw how that one day the Kelvin Wave passed it attempted to briefly bring instability up to normal levels for just less than 24hrs. then once it passed it was back to the bone dry Tropical Atlantic. So if the only way to get normal/decent levels of instability is for Kelvin Wave or the dreaded MJO to come around then we are probably going to struggle to get very far this season IMO.

Conditions like better in the Carrribean.

???

[TheStormExpert]

Down to 0/30%. Makes perfect sense IMO, they also now mention environmental conditions being currently unfavorable.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has decreased in association with a broad area of
low pressure located a couple hundred miles south of the Cape Verde
Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still possible
in a few days after it encounters a more conducive environment while
it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N23W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

[Hurricane Andrew]

:uarrow: We saw how that one day the Kelvin Wave passed it attempted to briefly bring instability up to normal levels for just less than 24hrs. then once it passed it was back to the bone dry Tropical Atlantic. So if the only way to get normal/decent levels of instability is for Kelvin Wave or the dreaded MJO to come around then we are probably going to struggle to get very far this season IMO.

Conditions like better in the Carrribean.

???

Sorry, iPad Keyboard. I meant to say look better. TCHP for one, as Cycloneeye posted back on page 1 or 2.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity has changed little in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a couple hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is still
possible in a few days after it encounters a more conducive
environment while it moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Alyono]

the fact that no model is developing this in the near term is quite telling. Not even the Canadian is developing this, and it develops EVERYTHING

It looks like the low level winds are the unfavorable parameter. If they are unfavorable, nothing develops

[Blown Away]

[wxman57]

There isn't much present to develop. Typical tropical wave. Weaker than we should expect to see this time of year. Convection might flare up as it approaches the Caribbean Friday/Saturday.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2014


AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 22N TO A
1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N23W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

[gatorcane]

Not impressive at all now but looking at the long-range synoptic setup the globals are showing, the system may not be able to recurve like we have seen MDR systems in August do the past several years. Question will be whether there will be better conditions further down the road that this system can take advantage of?

[tropicwatch]

Yea, it is starting to look like some part of the US will get this system whatever form it is in down the road.

[Ntxw]

Within the next 5 days shear in the Caribbean will remain low. After that next week shear could increase to 40-60kts across much of the Carib.

[wxman57]

The easterly trades slow down as the disturbance nears the Caribbean Friday. Resulting low-level convergence should cause convection to increase, possibly leading to the development of an LLC as the system reaches the Caribbean on Saturday. But once the system moves past about 63W the trades increase significantly across the Caribbean. This leads to low-level divergence, and convection should collapse. I don't think this will recurve north of the Caribbean because it isn't likely to develop in the near-term as SHIPS is suggesting.

[somethingfunny]

With that said.... I wouldn't at all be surprised to see 94L turn into something near the Yucatan region. It's just got a very long way to go first.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20 % in 5 days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity remains limited in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be only
marginally conducive for the next several days, and any development
of this disturbance should be slow to occur while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2014

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N26W TO
20N29W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD
700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 21W-37W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY
FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE SURFACE LOW
REMAINS SOUTH OF AN AFRICAN EASTERLY JET WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA NEAR 16N28W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 25W-30W.