Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Ntxw]

Early thoughts, I watched his video (JB). I don't know if we can match last winter in terms of cold, that was pretty prolific as a whole for the continent, but in terms of snow and storms there's a good chance we could see more impact systems than last year. The Pacific Ocean is very warm and the recent +PDO readings shows a very wet eastern Pacific.

[Janie2006]

Ntxw, I always appreciate the thought you put into your posts.

I'm going to be honest here. Frankly, I didn't find JB's video all that informative. I understand that it's basically a news story for the WSJ, but I was hoping for more of a nuts and bolts explanation from his point of view. Instead we heard about El Nino and saw a big map with outrageous amounts of snow in nice lines.

I know *why* he thinks it'll be just as bad or a bit worse this year (we've been watching the signs since March, for crying out loud), I don't disagree with him on that point. It just wasn't at all what I had expected. You'd think that a normal person watching this would say "Oooookay, but *why* the extra snow??", but I suppose they don't. Maybe all most people want is a four minute blurb about the winter. *shrug*

[Portastorm]

Most people aren't the weather weenies we are!

JB has been honking for a while now about a Modoki Niño for this winter. If you follow him on Twitter you will occasionally see some "nuts and bolts" behind the hyperbole. Anyhow, speaking very generally, Modoki Ninos tend to be great winters in the Southern Plains and Texas for cold/snow lovers.

[Texas Snowman]

Hopefully it's a great winter for our fearless leader, Portastorm, and others in central and southern Texas who need a highly memorable visit from Old Man Winter!

[Portastorm]

Off Topic: well I hope this guy is wrong because you guys in Austin definitely deserve snow, take a look at the bottom of the page. http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.p ... groupid=74

[TheProfessor]

I have a feeling this is going to be a great winter for cold and snow lovers for much of Texas, the fact that we have had multiple cold fronts already pushing past North Texas this summer seems impressive.

[Ntxw]

Jamstec seasonal forecasts are out and it too is pretty good for winter lovers. Will post maps later this evening. Plenty of convincing evidence for a good to memorable winter this year with better chances for cold and snow. Thinking a late 70s worthy winter may be in the cards.

[orangeblood]

Jamstec seasonal forecasts are out and it too is pretty good for winter lovers. Will post maps later this evening. Plenty of convincing evidence for a good to memorable winter this year with better chances for cold and snow. Thinking a late 70s worthy winter may be in the cards.

Yep, looking very promising for this winter with the Jet stream setting up shop much further south across the southern states, along with plenty of cold air to tap into across southern Canada. The entire eastern Pacific looks extremely warm towards the end of this year - reminiscent of the epic winter of 1977-78

[texas1836]

I keep hearing about it, but not seeing to much on this forum. Will or can the lack of sunspot activity have an added effect on our Winters?

[Portastorm]

I keep hearing about it, but not seeing to much on this forum. Will or can the lack of sunspot activity have an added effect on our Winters?

Well, this group of scientists seems to believe the answer is "yes."

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=1073

[Ntxw]

The NE Pacific warm pool is still alive and thriving. What an incredible run!

[Ptarmigan]

The NE Pacific warm pool is still alive and thriving. What an incredible run!

I have looked at UAF GEOIDE LAS, which is at http://ferret.pmel.noaa.gov/geoideLAS/

The Northeast Pacific Warm pool is the warmest I have see going back to 1870.

[texas1836]

Will this cause major blocking over Greenland? What does this mean?

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Will this cause major blocking over Greenland? What does this mean?

No, the anomalously warm NE Pacific waters will not cause major blocking over Greenland ... at least directly. But do you remember what happened to Texas weather last winter with the frequent cold airmasses coming down out of Canada and the Arctic? These waters help create an environment in the atmosphere where strong high pressure ridges form west of us along the western Pacific coast. Think of an upside-down "U" over the West Coast. The effect is shunting the cold airmasses south into the central and eastern parts of the CONUS at certain times.

[texas1836]

I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback.

[Portastorm]

I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback.

We're all learning constantly. Don't ever hesitate to ask anything around here.

And yes, I do recall someone several weeks ago posting about the possibility of a "Greenland block" this winter. Can't recall who it was but it was a few pages back on this thread, I believe. Should something like that occur and then we'd really have a cold winter to talk about! That would essentially create a persistent very deep trough over the nation's mid section and kind of lock us in to cold weather much of the winter season.

[Ptarmigan]

I gotcha and I do remember last year. I thought that someone, somewhere, had mentioned possible blocking in the East as well, something to do with warm waters around Greenland. I'm trying to understand all this, so sorry if these questions seem a bit naive. There's a lot to learn with so many scenarios, so I’m trying to broaden my understanding. Oh, and thanks for the feedback.

The Northeast Pacific region affects East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). Negative EPO creates ridging over Alaska, allowing cold air to go down south.

[Janie2006]

The persistence of these features is fascinating, especially the warm water in the Northeast Pacific. That's been constant for *months* now. I notice that the waters near Nova Scotia are particularly warm as well, with that warmth extending to Greenland. In other words, not much change from the last time I rattled on about this, what, about a month ago? I'm a fan of cold wx, so the signs continue to look favourable. I've seen nothing to change my mind, and September is almost here.

[Portastorm]

The persistence of these features is fascinating, especially the warm water in the Northeast Pacific. That's been constant for *months* now. I notice that the waters near Nova Scotia are particularly warm as well, with that warmth extending to Greenland. In other words, not much change from the last time I rattled on about this, what, about a month ago? I'm a fan of cold wx, so the signs continue to look favourable. I've seen nothing to change my mind, and September is almost here.

I believe you were the person who mentioned the potential Greenland block this coming winter. No doubt that some time in the next month, some of us will be researching analog winters which saw a negative EPO combined with a weak Nino. Throw in an occasional negative NAO and/or AO due to that Greenland block and it could get *real* interesting.

At the same time it always seems like there are things we miss this time of year when we start to speculate on the winter forecast. I know that we end up saying "oh man, why didn't I see that back in the fall?!" So, it'll be interesting like always. I look forward to everyone's comments and analyses.

[Janie2006]

You know, people in Buffalo would kill me if I told them I wanted a 1977-78 winter!

The long-range prognostication is for the "drought o' death" (cousin of the infamous TX Death Ridge) to continue for California, so that's another piece of the puzzle for TX and points east....otherwise you'd often get Pacific track storms (which bring relatively warm Pacific air in and maintain a zonal flow across the South) through California. If I'm not mistaken, most of the rain SoCal gets falls during the winter. Well, if you've got consistent ridging that blocks the storm pattern and forces things *around* it, that's entirely consistent with those warm waters and higher heights we keep seeing.

Meanwhile, I can dream. I've got a 594 DM high building above me. Wxman must have phoned it in.