New Isabel forecast... up the Chesapeake

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Derek Ortt

New Isabel forecast... up the Chesapeake

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:26 am

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13fd.html


I hope to God I am wrong, as not only would this wipe eats NC, Va, DC, and baltimore out, I have a lot of family in the Bel Air area.
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#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:32 am

Just as an aside, it seems that major hurricanes only threaten the areas where i have family members located, last year with Lili and now this year. Lets hope this pulls another Lili and is a much weaker than anticipated storm when it comes in
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Potential surprise, and a bad one at that

#3 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:36 am

I live in Fredericksburg Virginia. No one up until recently even gave it a thought. I am from Florida and I know to always watch hurricanes. Now the threat may be in my back yard way up here. Thankfully I live a little more inland than my old home Jacvksonville.
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#4 Postby Agua » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:39 am

Thanks Derek. Let"s hope it weakens by the time it gets up there
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#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:40 am

How far inland is frederiksburg?

Also, just becuse you are inland does not mean you are safe. Very few people die in today's hurricanes due to storm surge, but from inland flooding and due to the winds themselves
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#6 Postby hurricanedude » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:41 am

Well Derek, Im in Va Beach.....my area could get "wiped out"
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#7 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:43 am

I am in Lower Souther MD! PAX RIVER! The track is directly over us!
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#8 Postby HurricaneQueen » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:45 am

Thanks, Derek for another insightful forecast. That truly is scary to think about a possible CAT 3 barreling down on that area of the Mid Atlantic. I have lots of friends and family who have homes along the Jersey shore and I don't know what to hope for. If they are on the north side it will be better for them but should it hit such a populated area as the Delmarva, points south will be in a bad way. Not to mention those that get the direct hit. I guess wherever she goes, it will not be pretty. I will continue to monitor and pray for those in the path. Thanks, again to you and all the pro mets for keeping us so well informed. Lynn

:(
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GO FLORIDA GATORS

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#9 Postby Colin » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:47 am

E PA would also get crushed if this went up the Chesapeke...oh man...better get my supplies ready! :o
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#10 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:47 am

FYI

updates are also available, though seldom posted here

http://www.nwhhc.com/atlantic13.html
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#11 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:52 am

Fredericksburg is about 100 miles inland from Norfolk, but the bay and then the Potmac and Rappahannock move very close.
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#12 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:53 am

If it is that close, I would make some flooding preps then, just to be safe and not caught off guard.

You should be speared from the worst of the winds, however
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#13 Postby Lowpressure » Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:56 am

I have actually looked at the Meow post it states we would be in the 65 mph area, Flooding would be key, especially on already saturated ground from Henri leftovers.
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#14 Postby stormraiser » Sun Sep 14, 2003 10:35 am

This isn't good. I have relatives all over the SO MD area. Grew up in Charles County. The area could be a mess, especially after the tornado in LaPlata last year.

Then it goes just east of me, in the Southern Buffalo area.

drezee wrote:I am in Lower Souther MD! PAX RIVER! The track is directly over us!
Last edited by stormraiser on Sun Sep 14, 2003 10:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#15 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Sep 14, 2003 10:37 am

NHC is also indicating a Chesepeake threat as well. Tis agreement is likely due to a good model consensus, leaving less and less doubt regarding the forecast.

However, the forward speed is still an issue and can cause dramatic changes in the track
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Not to make light of that

#16 Postby Steve Cosby » Sun Sep 14, 2003 10:44 am

Derek Ortt wrote:Just as an aside, it seems that major hurricanes only threaten the areas where i have family members located, last year with Lili and now this year. Lets hope this pulls another Lili and is a much weaker than anticipated storm when it comes in


Not to make light of this (and I probably shouldn't even have started this reply) but you and your family must be the "Anti-Cantore"

We wish them the best obviously.
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#17 Postby cjh034 » Sun Sep 14, 2003 10:56 am

Derek, I live in Bel Air area also.
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People living inland needs to prepare

#18 Postby Guest » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:44 am

just as well as people living along the eastcoast. I remember floyd while lving in Newport news va. boy was it a mess. Our main problem was the floods. I think floyd was more of a rain maker than anything else. But in any case Isabel to me is going to be a dangerous hurricane when it hits the eastcoast. 8-)
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#19 Postby njbeachwx » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:49 am

NE quad over NJ, I am begining to feel like a bride on her wedding day. Nervous is an understament, need to decide when to break it to my parents (80 and 85 respectively) who live 2 blocks from the ocean that we need to pack em up.
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Well Derek....

#20 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Sun Sep 14, 2003 11:51 am

I live in Essex, MD near BALTIMORE just 35 minutes from Belair. We're concerned as all heck here and I'm keeping everyone like me family and friends informed on this!!!

Jim
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