
ATL: Ex-INVEST 94L - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10140
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

06z...

06z...

06z...

72 Hour Forecast Position...
0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10140
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Intersting run by the Euro it takes 94l moves it over the big islands and then has it over SW Florida in 216hrs.


0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
12z GFS keeps it going a little longer than 06z and keeps it alive until 120hr versus 108hr followed by it opening up in the E. Carribean.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10140
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

12z...

12z... In 2-3 days the intensity models begin to increase...


0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23689
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
It looks more and more like this invest is not going to be a "Caribbean cruiser" with nearly all the models now showing a track north of the Caribbean, even without fully deepening this invest. The ECMWF (not shown) shows a track just north of the islands similar to the cluster of GFS ensembles shown below:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes
- Tireman4
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5851
- Age: 59
- Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Re:
Alyono wrote:this is going through the Caribbean
we were all fooled by Bertha. Even the shallow models were taking it to the north and it moved through Martinique
Lets not make the same mistake again. The models nearly ALWAYS take these things too far north too quickly
What is your thinking after that? Too early to say?
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
I disagree with the thought that 94L will traverse the Caribbean primarily because of I assume "if" a center does form within the somewhat large envelope, that center would likely develop on the more northern edge of its wave access - between 15N - 20N. Of course we all know that any intensity or track models are initially going to be simply "wonky" until we have a much better defined COC. In fact, I think the models are initializing 94L close to 12N. It may be near 12 N, in which case I'd be more inclined to agree with you. My experience with broad scale weak systems is either that new centers will tend to keep redeveloping to its east (as older vorticities spin out and decay as they shoot off to the west) or more commonly that outside of beneficial dynamic influences that distinctly cause a tropical cyclone to develop or move as a result of those dynamic influences.... seems to me that more often than not that "north" tends to be how many (tropical or baroclinic) weaker systems end up forming while the low level feature tries to catch up with the mid/upper levels often being yanked northward.
Even given the present easterly shear, I'm still thinking that there are some lingering low to mid level moisture or mid level cap issues. A mid Atlantic trough appear to dip in about 36 hours and am guessing that the added shear might help fire up convection more closely to the added upper air divergence. My guess is that this might provide enough of a trigger mechanism to aid convection and that any center that might form would tend to be closer to that point (approx. 50W - 60W & 15N - 20N ??). So, given a potentially farther north COC alone.... I would be far less inclined to still think the system would be able to maintain a 270 heading for any period of time (especially if deepening). As time goes on, I'm guessing increasing downstream low latitude (upper level) Westerlies and less than ideal conditions in the MDR, will help attribute to areas further north and west than normal as being more favorable zones for development.
Even given the present easterly shear, I'm still thinking that there are some lingering low to mid level moisture or mid level cap issues. A mid Atlantic trough appear to dip in about 36 hours and am guessing that the added shear might help fire up convection more closely to the added upper air divergence. My guess is that this might provide enough of a trigger mechanism to aid convection and that any center that might form would tend to be closer to that point (approx. 50W - 60W & 15N - 20N ??). So, given a potentially farther north COC alone.... I would be far less inclined to still think the system would be able to maintain a 270 heading for any period of time (especially if deepening). As time goes on, I'm guessing increasing downstream low latitude (upper level) Westerlies and less than ideal conditions in the MDR, will help attribute to areas further north and west than normal as being more favorable zones for development.
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10162
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
Not very reliable but intensity models in 00z are stronger. Some approaching cat 2.



0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models
How odd? I'm surprised that the intensity models have not backed off at least a little bit especially given how the global models barely notice the system. Furthermore, the "ramp up" period is not being pushed back but appearing to be approx. 36-42 hours away (and that is to T.S. strength). That just seems overly ambitious.
On another note...., had someone recently posted that the UK Model was recently upgraded to be more accurate than before? Just curious if anyone had access to the 0Z model data from the UK regarding it's take on 94L.
On another note...., had someone recently posted that the UK Model was recently upgraded to be more accurate than before? Just curious if anyone had access to the 0Z model data from the UK regarding it's take on 94L.
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
- Blown Away
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10140
- Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

06z...

06z... LGEM at Cat 3...


This will bring in some of the Storm2k GOM folks...

0 likes
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Not yet. If , and it is at the moment a big IF, 94L can survive and make it into the Caribbean by this weekend, then we may see the Gulf Coasters on here more frequently.
0 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests