EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF develops this to a high end TS

[Yellow Evan]

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Manzanillo, Mexico is producing a large area of cloudiness and
showers. Although the thunderstorm activity has recently weakened,
environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form within a few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[supercane4867]

HWRF develops this to a high end TS

00z HWRF now has a Cat.2 and GFS shows the system to its west maybe another threat to Hawaii

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Shower activity has not become any better organized since
yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[somethingfunny]

[Yellow Evan]

HWRF develops this to a high end TS

00z HWRF now has a Cat.2 and GFS shows the system to its west maybe another threat to Hawaii

GFS calls for a Cat 1/2.



HWRF calls for 85 knts.

[supercane4867]

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
320 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 102.0W TO 16.0N 118.8W WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 121400Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3N
103.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 105.4W, APPROXIMATELY 34NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20-25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
131430Z.//

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico
have become a little better organized. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[hurricanes1234]

Could form by tomorrow at this rate.

[AFWeather]

From a Hawaii standpoint, I'm now more concerned with the possible "Invest to-be" which causes 99E to end up being a fish. Likely won't form till it crosses 140W, so not sure if it'll end up being 90E or 90 something C. GFS develops it in about 3-4 days, will be interesting to see if that happens. NHC isn't as bullish, only going for 40% for the five day period.

[Yellow Evan]

From a Hawaii standpoint, I'm now more concerned with the possible "Invest to-be" which causes 99E to end up being a fish. Likely won't form till it crosses 140W, so not sure if it'll end up being 90E or 90 something C. GFS develops it in about 3-4 days, will be interesting to see if that happens. NHC isn't as bullish, only going for 40% for the five day period.

Agreed. We've been talking about it on the seasonal thread but yea, it's def possible we could see another Hawaii landfall. though I will say the 10/40 has a bit of latitude to gain.

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii's such a small target. Keep your eyes peeled.

[cycloneye]

TD later tonight or tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have
continued to become better organized. Environmental conditions are
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS keeps showing a fairly intense (980 mbarish TC), but long-lived.

[Kingarabian]

GFS keeps showing a fairly intense (980 mbarish TC), but long-lived.

Fairly long journey to past 140W.

Think it's a bit like Guillermo of 2009. That's a long journey to get it past 140W. Conditions do seem favorable however.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track. With the new policy we wont know until 8 PM PDT if 99E will be upgraded so the waiting game will be here.

EP, 99, 2014081300, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1078W, 25, 1007, LO

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track. With the new policy we wont know until 8 PM PDT if 99E will be upgraded so the waiting game will be here.

EP, 99, 2014081300, , BEST, 0, 163N, 1078W, 25, 1007, LO

Normally they go to 30 knts in the ATCF when there is an upgrade.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS keeps showing a fairly intense (980 mbarish TC), but long-lived.

Fairly long journey to past 140W.

Think it's a bit like Guillermo of 2009. That's a long journey to get it past 140W. Conditions do seem favorable however.

It could be a bit like Guilermo, given that this should recurve out to sea.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

The area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
Mexico has continued to become better organized this evening with
convection consolidating near the low-level center along with
increased banding features. Since earlier scatterometer data
indicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets
the criteria for a tropical depression. The initial intensity is
set to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from
TAFB.

The depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next
several days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear. There are
no obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady
strengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction
is above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the
SHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of
days. It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative
intensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level
environment predicted by the GFS model verifies.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14. A
subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build
westward during the next couple of days, which should cause the
depression to turn toward the west. Model guidance is generally in
good agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to
the model consensus. Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a
possible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone
and a potential break in the ridge along 130W. While the former
feature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more
toward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more
poleward track. The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the
less dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is
a little northwest of the model consensus at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Kingarabian]

Annnndd we're back.