ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Equilibrium]

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/13 ... 12.19,1024
First sign of a atmospheric processes switch about to happen? Take into account High's spin anticlock wise in the shem.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the weekly CPC update of 8/11/14 that has Nino 3.4 up to 0.0C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

I think El Nino is developing regardless.

[euro6208]

Some models has this el nino lasting until summer of next year...

What is the possibility this develops later this year and last until December 2015?

I am thinking that a weak el nino might develop and last until next year where it grows into moderate nino by June and a strong nino by late 2015...This should totally hamper any development in the atlantic but hyperdrives the pacific...Again, just my opinion...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The possibility of a 1986-type El Niño event is highly possible, given the state of ENSO before it peaked and its late development. I heard this in other forums too.

[euro6208]

Some models has this el nino lasting until summer of next year...

What is the possibility this develops later this year and last until December 2015?

I am thinking that a weak el nino might develop and last until next year where it grows into moderate nino by June and a strong nino by late 2015...This should totally hamper any development in the atlantic but hyperdrives the pacific...Again, just my opinion...

Wow. could we be witnessing a 2 year el nino?

Models even more bullish...



December 2014



Established El nino come April 2015 with possible strengthening...

[euro6208]

Not many in the atlantic will like this but I think their season will shutdown very early...The pacific will explode...

[somethingfunny]

Not many in the atlantic will like this but I think their season will shutdown very early...The pacific will explode...

I just like seeing that the warm pool is sticking around in the Gulf of Alaska, keep the cold fronts coming to Texas.

[Alyono]

Some models has this el nino lasting until summer of next year...

What is the possibility this develops later this year and last until December 2015?

I am thinking that a weak el nino might develop and last until next year where it grows into moderate nino by June and a strong nino by late 2015...This should totally hamper any development in the atlantic but hyperdrives the pacific...Again, just my opinion...

Wow. could we be witnessing a 2 year el nino?

Models even more bullish...



December 2014



Established El nino come April 2015 with possible strengthening...

how many times will we be fooled by these warm biased models? They ALWAYS forecast el niño

[cycloneye]

Australian update of 8/12/14

They still say El Nino will come later this year but it will not be a strong one. (Like CPC)

El Nino still a possibility for 2014
Issued on Tuesday 12 August 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The Pacific Ocean has shown some renewed signs of El Nino development. Some warming has occurred in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean in the recent fortnight, due to a weakening of the trade winds. If the trade winds remain weak, more warming towards El Nino thresholds is possible.

The Bureau's ENSO Tracker remains at WATCH status. This means the chance of an El Nino developing in 2014 is at least 50%, which is double the normal likelihood of an event. Five of the eight climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Nino is likely for spring. However, if El Nino were to occur, it is unlikely to be a strong event.

El Nino is often associated with below-average rainfall over southern and eastern inland areas of Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over southern Australia. Similar impacts regularly occur prior to the event becoming fully established.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been below 120.4 C (the negative IOD threshold) since mid-June, which means 2014 is now considered a negative IOD year. Model outlooks suggest this negative IOD event is likely to be relatively short-lived, with the Indian Ocean returning to neutral by spring. A negative IOD pattern typically brings wetter winter and spring conditions to inland and southern Australia, and could be countering the effects of the current El Nino-like ocean pattern in the Pacific.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I also like to see the warm pool near alaska. Using 1917 as an example, what were the winters like following those years? Any examples of it being paired with a moderate El Nino like we may be seeing this year?

Also, as far as the model showing El Nino in Apr '15, i dont think that would carry on much past the summer of '15. I would expect it to fade around July- August IF that model were to pan out.

[Kingarabian]

How warm was the PDO?

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,speaking about the PDO,the July update is up and it is down to +0.70 and that is slightly less warm than the +0.82 that was in June.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[GeneratorPower]

It is clear from the events of the last 6 months that nobody can truly forecast ENSO conditions with any skill. The best we can do is look at current conditions and assume trends will continue.

[USTropics]

It is clear from the events of the last 6 months that nobody can truly forecast ENSO conditions with any skill. The best we can do is look at current conditions and assume trends will continue.

This is true for any long-term modeling projections, especially modeling for ENSO forecasts. They are notorious for having low accuracy. While computing has increased in power along with better algorithms, and with it model accuracy has increased over the past decade, the atmosphere just has too many variables to forecast long-term events with utmost accuracy, e.g. 2013 hurricane season.

[JDawg512]

I came across this video on YouTube while browsing around and thought I'd share. It's aimed at surfers looking for upcoming waves especially along California but the guy really gets into El Nino and spends nearly 30 min in detail not just with El Nino but also other Pacific Ocean conditions. I am not sure if this has been posted before so forgive me if it has. The great thing is they have a weekly update. I just saw the last two updates and he really does an excellent job in explanation going into great detail. I subscribed to the channel and will be looking forward to each Sunday when new updates are posted.


Enjoy

http://youtu.be/uCCsqsgocsI

[Ptarmigan]

The possibility of a 1986-type El Niño event is highly possible, given the state of ENSO before it peaked and its late development. I heard this in other forums too.

That is certainly possibly. A rarity for one.

[cycloneye]

All El Nino areas are on the downside as of August 16 but the only thing that may bring hope about El Nino coming in the next few months is the warm pool located at the sub-surface of the WestCentral Pacific.At least the SOI has remained for the past couple of weeks in negative but the ESPI is falling so still there are mixed signals.Ntxw,with all the TC activity in the past few weeks in WPAC,CPAC and EPAC,did WWB's occurred to warm things?

[Ntxw]

All El Nino areas are on the downside as of August 16 but the only thing that may bring hope about El Nino coming in the next few months is the warm pool located at the sub-surface of the WestCentral Pacific.At least the SOI has remained for the past couple of weeks in negative but the ESPI is falling so still there are mixed signals.Ntxw,with all the TC activity in the past few weeks in WPAC,CPAC and EPAC,did WWB's occurred to warm things

I haven't seen any raw westerlies this week or expect any in the near future. There was some last week when Genevieve was crossing the CPAC to WPAC. There is however anomalous weakening of the trades expected. ESPI has been up and down and lowering lately, SOI looks like it will be quite low for August, perhaps El Nino threshold first time since March.

[Yellow Evan]

All El Nino areas are on the downside as of August 16 but the only thing that may bring hope about El Nino coming in the next few months is the warm pool located at the sub-surface of the WestCentral Pacific.At least the SOI has remained for the past couple of weeks in negative but the ESPI is falling so still there are mixed signals.Ntxw,with all the TC activity in the past few weeks in WPAC,CPAC and EPAC,did WWB's occurred to warm things

I haven't seen any raw westerlies this week or expect any in the near future. There was some last week when Genevieve was crossing the CPAC to WPAC. There is however anomalous weakening of the trades expected. ESPI has been up and down and lowering lately, SOI looks like it will be quite low for August, perhaps El Nino threshold first time since March.

What would you expect Nino 3.4 to look like at next week's update?