Global model runs discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Models indicating a likely Hawaii threat next Monday and Tuesday

From Invest 99E?

From the 10/30 system.

[Alyono]

that 10/30 system is a lot more than 10/30. Probably more like 10/75 at this point

[cycloneye]

Note=Is 16 days out.

[gatorcane]

UKMET is upgraded

If the upgrade of UKMET works good,then GFS and ECMWF may have good company as a third altrernative to look at when modeling of Tropical Cyclones is concerned.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s ... i_v2.0.pdf

Where can we find a good link to the upgraded UMKET model runs for the Atlantic basin like we have for the other global models? The UKMET on the PENN state EWALL site only goes out to 24 hours (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html).

Here's a couple of good UKMET model sites that I like to use:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

Thank you for these links. Will bookmark them.

[somethingfunny]

that 10/30 system is a lot more than 10/30. Probably more like 10/75 at this point

It would be nice if we could get an Invest designation on it.

[gatorcane]

The GFS continues to show quite a ridge over Eastern North America in the long-range. We haven't had this setup in August for many years. Assuming this does verify, will there be any systems that get underneath that ridge?

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS continues to show quite a ridge over Eastern North America in the long-range. We haven't had this setup in August for many years. Assuming this does verify, will there be any systems that get underneath that ridge?

http://i58.tinypic.com/spu3h2.jpg

I'm pretty sure last year around this time there was a similar ridge and setup?

[stormlover2013]

Not this strong, let's see if it plays out

[chaser1]

Where can we find a good link to the upgraded UMKET model runs for the Atlantic basin like we have for the other global models? The UKMET on the PENN state EWALL site only goes out to 24 hours (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html).

Here's a couple of good UKMET model sites that I like to use:

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&mod=ukmet

Thank you for these links. Will bookmark them.

Appreciate the links!

[chaser1]

The GFS continues to show quite a ridge over Eastern North America in the long-range. We haven't had this setup in August for many years. Assuming this does verify, will there be any systems that get underneath that ridge?

AGREED, BIG TIME! Will be very curious to see if this holds up

[HurricaneFan]

Is that Low Pressure in the NE Caribbean on Sunday 24th the same Tropical Wave off of Africa now?(The one behind ex 94L)

[Hurricaneman]

Is that Low Pressure in the NE Caribbean on Sunday 24th the same Tropical Wave off of Africa now?(The one behind ex 94L)

nope, its the wave behind it so I was one of those that made a mistake in thinking it was pouch 017L. 017L degenerates into a tropical wave and is about 15 degrees farther to the east of the wave modeled to develop

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS in the long range now show the wave it has been developing going through the island into the Caribbean and plowing through Hispaniola and Cuba so if that happens it has a bad future especially for Hispaniola and Cuba for flooding but as of now the only real chance for development may be in the eastern Atlantic

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[gatorcane]

What's interesting about the GFS the past several runs is that it has dramatically decreased the intensity of this Eastern Atlantic disturbance as it crosses the MDR which is telling me that maybe the GFS is picking up on some negative conditions still even in the long-range.

The CMC/GEM is basically dead through 240 hours run after run (except one run yesterday) which is telling since it develops EVERYTHING.

The ECMWF is showing basically NADA though it is not as good at predicting genesis especially in the MDR.

We are getting closer to that time we would expect models to really start showing some things as the global models start going into the end of August on their long-range runs.

[Ntxw]

Bertha will cause a wave breaking event in the far North Atlantic which raises heights across the basin below kind of like after Arthur with sinking air for a week or two which explains the models lacking activity. My guess is after that week they will pick up something for week 2 and 3.

It's pretty much playing out well on the models. It won't be quiet for forever on the models, usually they do start to show stuff as climo approaches. Whether it becomes something meaningful or not is yet to be seen. I'm pretty sure there will be something to track end of this month and early next month on guidance as there usually always is.

[ninel conde]

what the models are seeing is the bone dry air TWC showed yesterday. we may set another record for lack of water molecules in aug

[cycloneye]

GFS has shown a hurricane for the past runs in the Western Atlantic on long range.Will it continue to show it when it begins at short to medium range? And also let's see if UKMET and ECMWF join later.

[Blown Away]

GFS has shown a hurricane for the past runs in the Western Atlantic on long range.Will it continue to show it when it begins at short to medium range? And also let's see if UKMET and ECMWF join later.

Yes, but it starts to develop it in the new MDR north of 30 degrees... J/K

[TheStormExpert]

GFS has shown a hurricane for the past runs in the Western Atlantic on long range.Will it continue to show it when it begins at short to medium range? And also let's see if UKMET and ECMWF join later.

Yes, but it starts to develop it in the new MDR north of 30 degrees... J/K

The GFS("Granted Fantasy Show" lol) is the new CMC as of this season.

[euro6208]

what the models are seeing is the bone dry air TWC showed yesterday. we may set another record for lack of water molecules in aug

lol water molecules...