2014 EPAC Season

[Ntxw]

As crazy as that CMC run is, I don't believe it, but I wouldn't be shocked if something like that were to occur at some point. Mad season going on in the EPAC that 100 ACE count marker could be achieved pretty soon, then only about 30-40 to go above average. I would place odds very good at achieving or surpassing.

[Yellow Evan]

As crazy as that CMC run is, I don't believe it, but I wouldn't be shocked if something like that were to occur at some point. Mad season going on in the EPAC that 100 ACE count marker could be achieved pretty soon, then only about 30-40 to go above average. I would place odds very good at achieving or surpassing.

I don't think it'll happen either, but it's worth paying a little more attention to than normal since after all, it's been a very crazy season thus far.

I'd expect our current rate of activity to continue from now till late September.


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[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure centered about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves to the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad area of low pressure centered about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next few days while it moves to the west or
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

GFS develops this now

[euro6208]

GFS has been hinting at a hurricane near the Dateline (another hawaii threat?) but latest 06Z has only a weak TD...probrably we get Ana out of this...

[Yellow Evan]

GFS devlops the 10/30 thingy.



HWRF calls for two new TC within the next 5 days. So we could be up to Storm #14 by Saturday. Amazing.

[Yellow Evan]

2. A broad area of disturbed weather is centered about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely suffering from convection feedback, MJO is over Africa and that is where the current wave (Pouch 017L I think)



CMC also on board with the HWRF on more activity



So is the GFDL, abliet less aggressive



UKMET develops both 10/30 and 99E.

[Yellow Evan]

From global models thread:

that 10/30 system is a lot more than 10/30. Probably more like 10/75 at this point

Well, it brings it close to Hawaii.



Peaks it as a hurricane alongside 99E/Karina.



Peak

Looking ahead,





1-2 more storms, but this is convection feedback IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad but disorganized area of disturbed weather is centered
about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development in a couple of days when the system enters the Central
Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Apologies for making so many posts in a row, but



12z CMC develops stuff after 99E



GFDL brings the 10/40 near Hawaii as well.



FIM develops the 10/40 more than 99E

[Hurricaneman]

The 50th state seems to be the hurricane target of the US in 2014

[Kingarabian]

The 50th state seems to be the hurricane target of the US in 2014

Go figure.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS halfway out. Has 10/40 moving much slower.



NOGAPS also shows this and IMO shows the most realistic track

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF on board with a 10/40 and another system



GFS shows 2 long-range hurricanes

[AFWeather]

I think we'll see the 10/40 track shift south. It's already been trending that way in the few model runs since it was first picked up on.

And looks like 10/40 is now 20/60. Still not an invest for some reason.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
elongated area of low pressure centered about 1400 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development in a couple of
days when the system enters the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's
area of responsibility.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

I think we'll see the 10/40 track shift south. It's already been trending that way in the few model runs since it was first picked up on.

And looks like 10/40 is now 20/60. Still not an invest for some reason.

I'd agree on a more southerly course. Ridge still firm in place, and trough is not digging deep.

[AFWeather]

For what it's worth, CPHC splits this elongated area of convection up into two seperate areas of interest.



NHC is tracking the one closer to 135W, but the convection does look more impressive near the 143W area at the moment.

[Yellow Evan]

For what it's worth, CPHC splits this elongated area of convection up into two seperate areas of interest.



NHC is tracking the one closer to 135W, but the convection does look more impressive near the 143W area at the moment.

Hence why the ECMWF predicts two systems.