Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[SFLcane]

Highly doupt any of these waves will develop in this dry airmass. Its awful really what this basin has become as of late.

[cycloneye]

Nothing at 8 pm EDT TWD that opens eyebrows.

A TROPICAL WAVE W OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 19N21W TO 9N22W. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS FROM UPPER-LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 17W-25W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EAST ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
19N22W TO 8N22W...MOVING W AT 10 KT. METEOSAT PSEUDO NATURAL AND
SAL TRACKING IMAGERY INDICATE SAHARAN DUST AND DRY AIR IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT N OF 12N WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 21W-30W...COINCIDING WITH A
REGION OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW AND UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.

[gatorcane]

The upgraded UKMET is more enthusiastic about this wave than Pouch 18L over Africa and shows a low forming out of this area by 60 hours from now:

12Z 132 hours below:


Saved image of pouch 17L before the sun goes down:

[Hurricaneman]

pouch017L is looking good right now but the dry air is probably going to do this one in

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[Alyono]

that's not even a tropical wave. Have a look at the latest TPW loop. This is merely convection at the base of a trough. A TW is ahead of this and one is about to emerge off of Africa.

It is the one that is about to emerge that is being developed by the models, not the convection at the base of the trough

[gatorcane]

According to this analysis map, there is a tropical wave there. Can you point me at the TPW loop? Anyway - I think pouch 18L will likely absorb this anyway once it rolls off Africa as that pouch is quite large

[Hurricane Andrew]

He is right about the TPW. I think. I am new at reading these.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Alyono]

doesn't matter what the map says... that is not a TW. It's convection at the base of the trough. A wave shows up really well on TPW as an amplified region

[cycloneye]

ASCAT finds not much of a well defined circulation.

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT finds not much of a well defined circulation.

https://imageshack.com/a/img538/2694/34o0VJ.gif

It will be interesting to see what it shows when 018L emerges.

[Equilibrium]

that's not even a tropical wave. Have a look at the latest TPW loop. This is merely convection at the base of a trough. A TW is ahead of this and one is about to emerge off of Africa.

It is the one that is about to emerge that is being developed by the models, not the convection at the base of the trough

Thats how i read the models its the strong tropical wave that is expected to move off the African coast later next week to develop.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Appears to have a LLC now
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[perk]

That is a great loop,thanks Andrew.

[tropicwatch]

Appears to have a LLC now
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

It does appear to have a circulation going now. Just have to wait and see if it can survive the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Appears to have a LLC now
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Definitely appears to have an LLC with a good spin. It's a rather small system though, so dry air could degrade it very quickly. Not looking too bad though at the moment.

[Sanibel]

The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) set-up shop stronger in the hurricane belt after Bertha. It should wear down as we approach peak season but right now it is just vaporizing all waves.

[cycloneye]

Here is the recent analysis of pouch 017L.

P17L
12N, 25W
700 hPa

ECMWF: Large, zonally-streteched pouch absorbs vorticity on its northeastern side for a couple days, but P17L does not develop. Gets stretched even more and loses its distinct circulation after 84 hours.

GFS: Similar track as ECMWF but lasting only 60 hours while P18L strengthens to the NE.

UKMET: Similar track to GFS, but the P17L track ends after 60 hours because P18L absorbs P17L.

NAVGEM: OUTLIER. Whereas GFS and UKMET P18L absorbs P17L and ECMWF 17L simply dissipates, NAVGEM P17L and P18L linger all 120 hours as separate pouches. On Days 3-4, P17L weakens as P18L strengthens to the NE, and then on Day 5, P17L reintensifies.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2014/P17L.html

[cycloneye]

A low was added on the 12z surface analysis.

[gatorcane]

Clicking this loop, you can see convection initially decreased when it moved off Africa but it is has recently increased some:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-avn.html