ISABEL OBSERVATIONS AND DISCUSSION

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Isabel remains a very dangerous category 5 hurricane this morning. Based on the projected path, which is dangerously close to Norfolk, VA, Washington DC and Baltimore as a MAJOR hurricane later this week, all residents along the US EAST coast needs to prepare and monitor this situation very closely!!!

The 5 AM EDT positions has the center of Hurricane Isabel at latitude 23.3 north, longitude 65.2 west or about 340 miles north of San Jusan, Puerto Rico.

Isabel is moving towards the west northwest at near 13 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain at near 160 mph with higher gusts. This makes Isabel a very dangerous category 5 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and such will be the case for the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 200 miles.

Minimum central pressure is now 938 mb or 27.70 inches as reported by the recon hurricane hunter aircraft.

Now the real question is what about the track of the hurricane?? It's looking very ominous from North Carolina up through the Jersey shore. Even the entire Chesapeake Bay area, which rarely ever gets hurricanes could see a potential major hurricane go up the entire bay. This is 5 days out. However, the situation is serious enough to start preparing up and down the east coast if you haven't already.

The pattern is a bit complicating. However a ridge of high pressure remains north of the hurricane. A trough off the southeast US coast, which hasn't moved will likely retrograde toward the southwest in response to the hurricane. The steering flow between that SE US trough and the high to the north will steer the hurricane towards the outer banks by late Thursday. As a second stronger trough rolls in from the west, the hurricane will accelerate to the north along the mid atlantic coast. Max winds could be near 125 mph in Norfolk and VAB, VA and close to 115 mph on the latest projected path/intensity in Baltimore. This is according to the NHC. If this verifies, the results would be devastating. To make matters worse, a large Canadian high pressure system will approach the hurricane and create a tight pressure gradient in the northeast and mid atlantic Friday into Saturday. So winds even away from the center could still be well over tropical storm force with hurricane winds near the center potentially. Obviously a dangerous setup for the mid atlantic later this week potentially and I'll be watching this for you guys!!

Good afternoon.
Jim

[Stephanie]

This just may be a very historic event for us Jim!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

a nasty setup if this verifies. This would make the bermuda hit from fabian seem like a small news story if anything at all!!!

Jim

[Colin]

Here we go guys...this is going to be the real thing...

[caribepr]

[quote="WXBUFFJIM"]:( a nasty setup if this verifies. This would make the bermuda hit from fabian seem like a small news story if anything at all!!!

Jim[/quote]

Doubtful our friends in Bermuda feel that way:(

And one of these days I'll learn how to quote correctly!