2014 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

EPAC continues to crank them out one after the other! I think it has literally sucked the Atlantic dry of any moisture!

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[Yellow Evan]

EPAC continues to crank them out one after the other! I think it has literally sucked the Atlantic dry of any moisture!

True, these EPAC storms are likely causing elevated shear over the ATL.

[AFWeather]

From the Honolulu WFO:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FAR SE OF
THE ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING WNW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
SEASONABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

[hurricanes1234]

Thanks for uploading that wide view. It really is interesting how much activity we've been having this month. With the new area entering the Central Pacific, we just might see another named storm there. And with 11E newly formed, it is likely to become a hurricane. I wonder, is the Central Pacific reaching record ACE levels for so early?

[Yellow Evan]

Thanks for uploading that wide view. It really is interesting how much activity we've been having this month. With the new area entering the Central Pacific, we just might see another named storm there. And with 11E newly formed, it is likely to become a hurricane. I wonder, is the Central Pacific reaching record ACE levels for so early?

No. Look at 1994's CPAC's ACE It was higher than the EPAC proper ACE.

[Yellow Evan]

From the Honolulu WFO:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FAR SE OF
THE ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING WNW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
SEASONABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

Wonder when they are gonna need to bring Recon. Is it still on Hawaii or the mainland?

[AFWeather]

From the Honolulu WFO:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FAR SE OF
THE ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING WNW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
SEASONABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

Wonder when they are gonna need to bring Recon. Is it still on Hawaii or the mainland?

Well, they originally planned to fly out the 13th, but I know on Monday they were hurrying up to get back in case 94L did anything. I think they may have already left...

[AFWeather]

00Z GFS sticks with the 20/60 area hitting the big island. It's got 11E passing closer to Hawaii again, after a sort of drunk trek across the EPAC where it actually moves SW for a bit. Then, it develops an absolute monster near the end of the month. May be convective feedback but this year, anything's possible.



949mb storm in the final frame.

[Yellow Evan]

From the Honolulu WFO:

GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEPICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FAR SE OF
THE ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE LOW THEN TRACKING WNW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH TOO EARLY TO HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND
FORECAST NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR
SEASONABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

Wonder when they are gonna need to bring Recon. Is it still on Hawaii or the mainland?

Well, they originally planned to fly out the 13th, but I know on Monday they were hurrying up to get back in case 94L did anything. I think they may have already left...

Yea, that could delay recon for future Ana. If not, I'd send recon in for tomorrow if I was the CPHC.

[Yellow Evan]

00Z GFS sticks with the 20/60 area hitting the big island. It's got 11E passing closer to Hawaii again, after a sort of drunk trek across the EPAC where it actually moves SW for a bit. Then, it develops an absolute monster near the end of the month. May be convective feedback but this year, anything's possible.



949mb storm in the final frame.

That was you mentioned is Pouch 17L I think. I agree this is convection feedback.

And hidden on the GFS shown via non-fully res products is a believe the wave off of Central Africa.

BTW, a couple weeks ago (I think I posted it here), GFS was bombing out something that I think is now 11E.

Also the system north of Hawaii is still 11E, right?

[Yellow Evan]

0z CMC shows a bunch of stuff as usual.

[Yellow Evan]

1. An elongated area of low pressure centered about 1400 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for development in a couple of days when the
system enters the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of
responsibility.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

1. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu Hawaii is issuing advisories on tropical storm Julio, located 570 miles north of Honolulu, Hawaii, under AWIPS header TCPCP4 and WMO header WTPA34 PHFO.

2. Showers and thunderstorms increased around an elongated area of low pressure centered about 1450 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system may develop slowly as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. If it does develop, this system may enter the central Pacific basin as early as Wednesday night.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 20 percent.

3. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located along a trough about 970 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is expected to develop slowly, or not at all, as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected through Thursday evening.




HWRF unrealistically weakens 11E, but makes the thing behind it powerful.

In addition to 11E, we could have 2 more TC's by the time the week is out IMO if models are correct.

[cycloneye]

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that the area of
low pressure located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii is gradually becoming better defined. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has also become a little better organized, and
environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development over the next several days when the system enters the
Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[Yellow Evan]

Not a 949mbar TC, but still powerful at day 16

[euro6208]

When was the last time the EPAC and WPAC were this close in number of storms. 11 for EPAC and 12 for WPAC? with potential for the EPAC to take the lead with more TC developing according to most of the models...

I don't remember the last time this occured. EPAC this year is a carbon copy of a WPAC season but good thing is most of these storms move harmlessly out to sea unlike the WPAC...

[Yellow Evan]

When was the last time the EPAC and WPAC were this close in number of storms. 11 for EPAC and 12 for WPAC? with potential for the EPAC to take the lead with more TC developing according to most of the models...

I don't remember the last time this occured. EPAC this year is a carbon copy of a WPAC season but good thing is most of these storms move harmlessly out to sea unlike the WPAC...

1983 IIRC the EPAC was 1 storm short of the WPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

3. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is located along a trough about 950 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. This system is expected to develop slowly, or not at all, as it moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.* Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF develops 3 TC's within in the next 5 days. Are you kidding me?



So does the CMC, oh I mean, UKMET.



FIM-9 is more conservative.

GFS is less aggressive with the one E of Karina this time around.

But is more bullish in the long range



Marie



Marie with a possible Marie behind it

[CrazyC83]

You mean a possible Norbert?

At this rate we may go Greek...and I wonder if this is the year that California gets hit?