Ptarmigan wrote:euro6208 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:2013 in the WPAC was more active than usual for recent years too? So that may be a hint as well.
Yes it was quite active...
27 Tropical storms
15 Typhoons
11 Major Typhoons
---Five category 4
---Three category 5...
Some saying 2013 was very slow but i don't know what is considered a *slow*, *below average* over here since it is always active...
It was also deadly...6825 killed...mostly from haiyan in the P.I...
2013 for the West Pacific started slow as it would be considered a late bloomer.
BELOW AVERAGE ACE is probably why. It is slow because many of those storms and those STS/TYPHOON comobos have contributed less than expected ACE; Lastly, despite those, the ratio of named storms and typhoons is 31:13 but 27:15 which is close to average.
A better time for tracking the WPAC is this year, the storms are generally stronger. YEAR-TO-DATE ACE this year (126) is nearly 4 times more than of last year (about 39) and back to the topic.
The ATL multidecadal active period has ended IMO, due to gradually lower ACE, and a significantly different environment which is not very conducive for tropical cyclone intensification. It has been a longgggg while since there was a major hurricane over the basin, it was nearly 2 years ago. Forecasts are contra (against) an above-normal season, and if it pans out, it would be the
consecutive second year for very below normal activity. Last year was not an ordinary type of below-normal and it was record-breaking. Stability, dry air are factors as well for this inactivity. How could we get an active season with this? How long has been the ATL this unfavorable, and when was the last time this had happened? Therefore, I'd say that it had already ended.