EPAC: KARINA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

Up to 55kts.

EP, 11, 2014081412, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1154W, 55, 998, TS

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Karina keeps intensifying and we might see her become a Hurricane by Friday Morning. We will see how strong can this peak out at.
Maybe Cat 2?

Synopsis for Karina and other systems:http://goo.gl/0MO1u1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Deep convection has continued to increase and expand into a large
canopy of cloud tops of -80C to -85C. Passive microwave satellite
fixes indicate that the low-level center is located farther into the
northeastern portion of the convective cloud shield and that a
mid-level eye feature has developed closer to the center of the
cloud mass. However, the mid-level eye is displaced or tilted at
least 15-20 nmi southwest of the low-level center due to modest
northeasterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Despite the shear
conditions, satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB are a
consensus T3.5/55 kt, and estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU are
57 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial
intensity estimate is raised to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/09 kt and is based primarily on
microwave satellite position fixes over the past 9 hours. The
forecast track and reasoning remain unchanged over the past 24 hours
with Karina expected to move in a general westward direction during
the forecast period due to the presence of a strong subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By Day 5, however, the
forecast become a little murky due to several models developing
multiple tropical cyclones in the central Pacific and eastern
Pacific basins that begin to interact with Karina in some form or
fashion. Rather than committing to any one particular solution, the
NHC track forecast just shows a significant slow down in Karina's
motion. The official forecast track has been nudged slightly south
of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model
TVCE, except at 120 hours due to the expected slower forward speed.

Northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt has been affecting Karina during
the past 12 hours or so, and the shear is expected to increase
slightly over the next 24 hours. However, other environmental and
oceanic conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
strengthening to occur, so the NHC intensity forecast still calls
for steady strengthening through the next 36 hours or so, followed
by a leveling off of the intensity due to the cyclone moving over
marginal SSTs near 26C and into a more stable air mass. The official
intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
forecast, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance
but follows the development trend in the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.2N 115.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 17.9N 122.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 18.2N 128.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 17.8N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Yellow Evan]

Karina keeps intensifying and we might see her become a Hurricane by Friday Morning. We will see how strong can this peak out at.
Maybe Cat 2?

Synopsis for Karina and other systems:http://goo.gl/0MO1u1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ill go a step farther and say this could peak as a major.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Karina keeps intensifying and we might see her become a Hurricane by Friday Morning. We will see how strong can this peak out at.
Maybe Cat 2?

Synopsis for Karina and other systems:http://goo.gl/0MO1u1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ill go a step farther and say this could peak as a major.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I won't rule out that possibility but since shear is expected to increase a little, and we know how magical it can get at times, I would say it's a little less likely.

[Yellow Evan]

Karina keeps intensifying and we might see her become a Hurricane by Friday Morning. We will see how strong can this peak out at.
Maybe Cat 2?

Synopsis for Karina and other systems:http://goo.gl/0MO1u1

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ill go a step farther and say this could peak as a major.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I won't rule out that possibility but since shear is expected to increase a little, and we know how magical it can get at times, I would say it's a little less likely.

Shear isn't a major problem. It still has plenty of time really. You saw how several storms this season got much stronger than expected.

[Kingarabian]

4 hours old, but gold.

I would say it's a hurricane.

Edit: So does ADT:

Code: Select all


                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  14 AUG 2014    Time :   173000 UTC
      Lat :   17:14:17 N     Lon :  116:21:05 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.4 / 979.4mb/ 74.6kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.4     4.4     5.0

 Center Temp : -78.3C    Cloud Region Temp : -79.3C

 Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON   
                   Weakening Flag : OFF   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   35km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1010mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES15
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.4 degree

[Kingarabian]

If that deep eyewall works its way to the lower levels then we're looking at a possible major hurricane. That eyewall is intense.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Is a hurricane.

EP, 11, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1169W, 65, 989, HU

[meriland23]

What do you personally think the chances are this will be\maintwin hurricane strength by the time it is near the islands?

[Kingarabian]

What do you personally think the chances are this will be\maintwin hurricane strength by the time it is near the islands?

Should be able to get to 140W as a hurricane at this rate. Don't know beyond that. Got a few disturbances it has to work around with to its west and to its east. Then you have the bipolar Hawaiian shear that is hard to predict. I'd be surprised if we have an Iselle 2.0.

[supercane4867]

For now every dynamic models have initialized Karina way too weak. 12z HWRF only shows a weakening TS but in fact it's approaching hurricane strength and rapidly intensifying

[Yellow Evan]

What do you personally think the chances are this will be\maintwin hurricane strength by the time it is near the islands?

Fair. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

For now every dynamic models have initialized Karina way too weak. 12z HWRF only shows a weakening TS but in fact it's approaching hurricane strength and rapidly intensifying

Only model that has had a decent handle on this so far is the GFS.



Looking good on AMSU.

[Kingarabian]

Here is the eye on visible satellite.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[Yellow Evan]

7th hurricane of the season

EP, 11, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1169W, 65, 989, HU, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 50, 50, 1010, 200, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1169W, 65, 989, HU, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1010, 200, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,
EP, 11, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1169W, 65, 989, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1010, 200, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KARINA, D,

[cycloneye]

Yellow Evan,I posted the best track almost an hour ago.

[meriland23]

Just out of curiosity, what do they name hurricanes after Z? Just asking cause..the way things are going it wouldn't surprise me, we are already in the Ks and we aren't even halfway through.

[Yellow Evan]

Just out of curiosity, what do they name hurricanes after Z? Just asking cause..the way things are going it wouldn't surprise me, we are already in the Ks and we aren't even halfway through.

The Greek Alphabet.

[Yellow Evan]