CPAC: INVEST 94C

[AFWeather]

The 18z GFS has Karina and 90E Fujiwhara-ing... good grief.

[Yellow Evan]

The 18z GFS has Karina and 90E Fujiwhara-ing... good grief.

Reminds me of that model runs that had Douglas and Elida interacting in June.

[Alyono]

not sure I can go for that run. However, this disturbance is almost certain to move very slowly over the next several days

[Yellow Evan]

not sure I can go for that run. However, this disturbance is almost certain to move very slowly over the next several days

I doubt it as well. They should not be too close. The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days while it moves slowly westward. This
system should move into the Central Pacific basin late Thursday or
Friday and is likely to become a tropical depression later this week
or over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Alyono]

nhc now going 50/80, which I think are reasonable probs

[Yellow Evan]

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 42 52 59 63 63 63 62 64
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 42 52 59 63 63 63 62 64
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 33 36 38 38 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 15 13 10 11 11 9 9 5 5 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -2 1 1 4 2 0
SHEAR DIR 68 72 69 65 72 82 77 83 82 100 118 110 96
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS is a repeat of 18z GFS pretty much.

[Yellow Evan]

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1200 miles
east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it moves slowly northward or northwestward. This system
could move into the Central Pacific basin on Friday or this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[AFWeather]

My favorite Honolulu WFO AFD writer has this to say:

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE PREDICTED A CHAOTIC MAZE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE.
SOLUTIONS VARIED WILDLY FROM RUN TO RUN...AND BETWEEN MODELS...AS TO THE EVENTUAL MOTION AND EVOLUTION OF
THE LOW OR LOWS. AT THIS POINT...NO SOLID CONCLUSION WAS POSSIBLE...BUT EVENTUALLY THE MODELS WILL AGREE ON
A COHERENT SCENARIO...AND THIS SCENARIO MAY NOT BODE WELL FOR THE STATE. IN ANY CASE...TROPICAL CYCLONES
ASIDE...CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CLIMATOLOGY.

The ever-eccentric Ryshko

[Kingarabian]

AFWeather, you're very keen on this affecting the state. My gut is Karina but that Euro run looks extremes worrisome if it is consistent.

[cycloneye]

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the area of low pressure
located about 1150 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii
has become better defined overnight. Although shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little during the past several
hours, gradual development of this disturbance is expected during
the next few days and a tropical depression could form by late
Friday or Saturday. This system is moving slowly west-northwestward
and is currently crossing 140W longitude, and it will move into
the central Pacific basin later this morning. The future discussions
on this disturbance will be provided in Tropical Weather Outlooks
issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[euro6208]

Looks like we might have Ana after all is said and done...

[AFWeather]

AFWeather, you're very keen on this affecting the state. My gut is Karina but that Euro run looks extremes worrisome if it is consistent.

Nah, if I honestly had to bet I'd say both of these miss the state, at least as tropical cyclones. Maybe moisture from a remnant of one (or both) makes it here eventually. Still worth watching.

[Yellow Evan]

I'm kinda questioning on will this develop or will it merge with Karina?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Is now at CPAC as Invest 94C.

CP, 94, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1400W, 20, 1010, LO

An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next two days as it moves slowly north or northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[Kingarabian]

Is now at CPAC as Invest 94C.

CP, 94, 2014081418, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1400W, 20, 1010, LO

An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii continues to produce showers and thunderstorms.Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system during the next two days as it moves slowly north or northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

[TheStormExpert]

Hope this one doesn't develop either so we could potentially see two different storms named Ana next season.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

CP, 94, 2014081500, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1403W, 20, 1008, LO,

[TheStormExpert]

With Karina struggling for it's life currently, and MJO almost non-existent I'm starting to lean towards the idea that this will probably not develop into anything.