CPAC: JULIO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA44 PHFO 150857
TCDCP4

TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
1100 PM HST THU AUG 14 2014

JULIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND JTWC WERE 2.0 WITH A 2.5 FROM
PHFO. I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY TO A CONSERVATIVE 40 KT.

THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE NORTH SHEAR CONTINUING AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER NORTH. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO FUEL THE
SYSTEM JULIO CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND LOSE ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. JULIO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW JULIO MOVING RATHER SLOWLY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTH...THEN
NORTHWEST. BY 72 HOURS A TROUGH ALOFT AND A FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REMNANT OF JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT LOW
WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE BEFORE DISSIPATING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 32.4N 157.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 32.8N 157.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 33.3N 157.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 33.7N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 34.5N 158.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0600Z 38.0N 159.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[galaxy401]

Goodbye.

WTPA44 PHFO 151436
TCDCP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP102014
500 AM HST FRI AUG 15 2014

JULIO HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A VIIRS DAY-NIGHT IMAGE
AT 144 AM STILL SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD VORTEX BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR 24 HOURS. JTWC CARRIED
A CI NUMBER OF 1.5 WHILE SAB AND PHFO REPORTED THE SYSTEM AS TOO
WEAK TO CLASSIFY. I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY TO 30 KT.

THE MODELS SHOW MODERATE NORTH SHEAR CONTINUING AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
FARTHER NORTHWEST. WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO FUEL
THE SYSTEM THE REMNANT OF JULIO CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THE REMNANT JULIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. BEYOND 72
HOURS A TROUGH ALOFT AND A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REMNANT OF
JULIO FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE REMNANT LOW WILL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 32.4N 157.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 16/0000Z 32.8N 157.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 33.4N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 34.0N 158.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 34.6N 159.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Steve820]

Bye, Julio! It was fun tracking you!