2014 EPAC Season

[supercane4867]

12z ECMWF with Karina,Lowell,Marie active simultaneously. Ana already formed and dissipated to their west

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS's Lowell



Marie

[Yellow Evan]

0z



6z







(Same system)

Earlier in the run, still sorta shows the 0/20 thing devloping

[Yellow Evan]

1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in a
couple of days. Some gradual development of this system is possible
early next week while it moves northwestward and then west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

Lowell is the bottom system I think.



Two powerful hurricanes.

[CrazyC83]

Karina was never expected to be particularly intense?

[Yellow Evan]

Karina was never expected to be particularly intense?

Not by the dynamical guidance. Many figured it would be strong solely based on the patterns of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151741
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form in a couple days a
few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Some gradual development of this system
is possible early next week while it moves generally west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure located about 500 miles west-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of
this system is possible through the middle of next week while it
moves generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

The 10/40 thingy



Marie



Norbert

[Equilibrium]

Its a very vigorous monsoon tough atm with lots of convention would expect quite a few more spin ups over the next few weeks . If it hangs about long enough and couples with a MJO the basin will become a explosive.

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[South Texas Storms]

Man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a strong hurricane moving west of Baja California in about 10-14 days. 0z shows the pressure getting down to 959 mb.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS



CMC

[Yellow Evan]

Man the GFS has been very consistent in showing a strong hurricane moving west of Baja California in about 10-14 days. 0z shows the pressure getting down to 959 mb.

I'm taking these with a grain of salt actually. They showed the exact same thing last year, and nothing happened.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad trough of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
possible through the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...40 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS shows two powerful hurricanes



And then a tropical storm and a hurricane appear in the long-range



0z CMC shows two lows forming, and interacting with each other near Baja



0z CMC then has 2 more TC's forming

[Hurricane_Luis]

Invest 91E is up

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116597

[Yellow Evan]

Get ready for this.



Major and a Cat 1



Two decently strong systems



California TS?



System #3

Now time for the great CMC



Powerful hurricane in the GOC





CMC as usual shows like 5 system's at a time. It's been crazy this year.



FIMM develops the first system low and quickly. That's important if it verfies because the GFS tends to have these kinds of systems move too slowly.



UKMET shows the same thing.

[Yellow Evan]

2. A weak low pressure area about 540 miles south of Kailua-Kona, Hawaii, was moving west at 5 to 10 mph. There is a slight chance that environmental conditions may support development of this system over the next couple of days.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 10 percent.

[CaliforniaResident]

Get ready for this.





California TS?

VERY interesting if that actually happens.