CPAC: INVEST 94C

#41 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:09 am

2. An irregular area of low pressure located about 900 miles southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, produced pulses of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support gradual development of this system during the next two days as it moves slowly toward the west to northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.

#42 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:11 am

TheStormExpert wrote:With Karina struggling for it's life currently, and MJO almost non-existent I'm starting to lean towards the idea that this will probably not develop into anything.

I kind of agree, but on the other hand, there is good model support for this system.

#43 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:38 am

Pulsing some deep convection right now.

Reminds me of hurricane Neki of 2009. Took a while to develop until it moved west. Then it spring north. Actually I remember fairly well that the GFS was calling for Neki to go north and strike the islands. It took too long to develop and when it did it cleared the islands.

In this case, the Euro was calling for a track to the north barely missing the big island.

So I don't know if the delay in organization is a good thing right now.

Equilibrium · #44 Postby **Equilibrium** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 7:23 am

Ouch.

#45 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:58 am

2. An irregular area of low pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, produced persistent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support gradual development of this system during the next two days as it moves slowly toward the west to northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

#46 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 10:49 am

00z Euro shows 94C developing after moving further West.

Then starts to move it north close to the big island.

#47 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:14 am

Looks worse now. Ugh.

#48 Postby **Alyono** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 11:59 am

getting less worried about this area. Not able to concentrate itself. Development chance appear to be decreasing

#49 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 12:58 pm

Why is this still 60%?

1. An area of low pressure located about 1050 miles east-southeast Hilo, Hawaii, continues to produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions may support gradual development of this system during the next two days as it moves slowly toward the west to northwest.* Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 60 percent.

mrbagyo · #50 Postby **mrbagyo** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 1:57 pm

Totally exposed but has a lot of moisture surrounding it.
IMO, this will become a named storm, maybe even a cane/phoon

#51 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:07 pm

mrbagyo wrote:Totally exposed but has a lot of moisture surrounding it.
IMO, this will become a named storm, maybe even a cane/phoon

I'm not sure, shear is only marginally favorable and is forecast to diminish slightly.

#52 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:09 pm

Euro doesn't develop it until after 3-4 days.

#53 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 2:11 pm

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 43 45 46 45 46
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 38 39 43 45 46 45 46
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 29 30 31 31 32
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 8 7 11 13 13 7 7 3 4 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 55 63 96 105 116 95 78 85 82 119 106 126 33
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6

#54 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:13 pm

12z no longer develops it. Good news.

TheStormExpert · #55 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 3:44 pm

Despite storms/hurricanes crossing into the C. Pacific you can't really say it's been too terribly active IMO. Not a single storm has originated from this area and 94C looks to be no different.

#56 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 4:22 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Despite storms/hurricanes crossing into the C. Pacific you can't really say it's been too terribly active IMO. Not a single storm has originated from this area and 94C looks to be no different.

What about Wali?

Steve820 · #57 Postby **Steve820** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:32 pm

This has some potential to be Ana. And Yellow Evan, Wali formed in the CPac but didn't originate from the basin, as Wali formed from a westward-moving tropical wave that moved through the Atlantic and EPac before developing in CPac.

#58 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 5:53 pm

Steve820 wrote:This has some potential to be Ana. And Yellow Evan, Wali formed in the CPac but didn't originate from the basin, as Wali formed from a westward-moving tropical wave that moved through the Atlantic and EPac before developing in CPac.

All CPAC systems are like that. Ill even go as far as saying, certain non-monsoonal WPAC systems are like that.

#59 Postby **Kingarabian** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:21 pm

Equilibrium · #60 Postby **Equilibrium** » Fri Aug 15, 2014 8:22 pm

Looking better organized than a few hours ago.

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