Tropical Wave off African Coast (Is Invest 95L)

[TheStormExpert]

As I expected the 00z GFS doesn't develop this or Pouch 017L, or anything else. IMO the GFS is up to it's old tricks again. Besides conditions are not improving and may never at this point it's starting to seem like.

[Florida1118]

As I expected the 00z GFS doesn't develop this or Pouch 017L, or anything else. IMO the GFS is up to it's old tricks again. Besides conditions are not improving and may never at this point it's starting to seem like.

Patience is a virtue. Complaining about the conditions every other post isn't going to make them better. It's August, SAL happens. This was expected to be a slow year, and it is.

The wave looks good, hopefully it'll clear some SAL out for September.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure could form over the eastern tropical
Atlantic by early next week. Some development of the system could
then occur as it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[ninel conde]

As I expected the 00z GFS doesn't develop this or Pouch 017L, or anything else. IMO the GFS is up to it's old tricks again. Besides conditions are not improving and may never at this point it's starting to seem like.

Patience is a virtue. Complaining about the conditions every other post isn't going to make them better. It's August, SAL happens. This was expected to be a slow year, and it is.

The wave looks good, hopefully it'll clear some SAL out for September.

the supply of SAL is endless.

even JB can only get slightly enthused reduced to talking about the JMAweeklies

African Wave Train coming to life, but cool water and dry air will work to retard. JMA weeklies interesting tho

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W FROM 22N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 19W AND
22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
8N TO 16N BETWEEN 16W AND 25W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered
just off the west coast of Africa. This low is accompanied by an
area of disturbed weather, and is forecast to move west-
northwestward toward an environment unfavorable for significant
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

[OuterBanker]

Much too high a lat. CV islands may feel affect. Maybe Azores down the road. No threat to the west. Fish all the way.

[tropicwatch]

With it taking a more northward trek than pouch 17, I don't see the two co-mingling anytime soon

[Sanibel]

Nothing worth talkin about so far. The SAL zapper is turned on.

[Fego]

Things are extremely quiet if not frustrating, when we read "this tropical wave will clean the path for the next one". Then the next one doesn't develop, and again, we hope that it will clean the path for the next one, and so on. As I see it, stable-sinking air and below normal ocean temperature are the inhibiting factors.
Off topic, we hope ex 94L brings a generous amount of rain to every island in it path.

[Riptide]

Off to a good start here
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hurricane Andrew]

ASCAT suggusts 20-30 kt winds on the east side.

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/asca ... Bds124.png

[canes04]

Looks to be close to TD status!

IMHO.

[Hurricane Andrew]

According to that SAT loop a few posts up, it just had a big convection burst over the center. I agree with the poster above me, I think this is a TD.

[TheStormExpert]

It needs convection on the north side and it will need to sustain it for some time before anyone (including the NHC) even thinks of it being TD worthy. IMO it has little to no chance of developing ATM, and the NHC's 10/10% as of 2pm seems pretty reasonable since environmental conditions will quickly worsen from here on out.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 10% in 2-Day, but down to 10% (from 20%) in 5-Day.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is centered
between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.
Although the shower activity has become a little better organized
during the past few hours, the low is heading west-northwestward
toward an environment unfavorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[gatorcane]

According to that SAT loop a few posts up, it just had a big convection burst over the center. I agree with the poster above me, I think this is a TD.

Saved image showing the convection burst: Models say "no" but seems to be organizing anyway.

[TheStormExpert]

The only thoughts that come to mind are models may be still battling between this and Pouch 017L, and they seem like relatively small waves so a similar model issue like with TD #2 seems possible.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The combination of a cool Gulf of Guinea, cool Indian Ocean, and wet Sahel season is leading to some very potent tropical waves this season. If this were a typical season, we'd probably be watching the beginnings of a Cape Verde hurricane. However, it's just too dry in the Atlantic right now. Too much SAL, too much sinking air.

[Kalrany]

What causes sinking air?
Clarification: I do understand that it is dry air, usually associated with high pressures, but I was wondering how it is formed?