ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2014081500, , BEST, 0, 136N, 168W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014081506, , BEST, 0, 138N, 175W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014081512, , BEST, 0, 140N, 182W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014081518, , BEST, 0, 142N, 190W, 20, 1009, LO,


Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area of interest.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116585&start=0

[gatorcane]

about time this gets tagged!

Saved image showing burst of convection over the LLC:

[underthwx]

Looks healthy

[Steve820]

It looks good but I don't think we'll see a Cristobal from this due to the environmental conditions it's about to face. Geez, when's Cristobal going to form?

[Riptide]

[TheStormExpert]

Do I smell a repeat of Invest 94L coming?

[cycloneye]

One word "Impressive". They may have to bump the %.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little during the
past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located
about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde
Islands. However, any additional development of this system is
expected to be limited as it moves west-northwestward into an
unfavorable environment.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[blp]

Seriously this might be a TD already.

[cycloneye]

Agreed blp.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

This has the appearance of a tropical depression, with well-organized and deep convection over a well-defined and closed low-level circulation. NHC might want to wait for convective persistence (it has been sustained for ~5 hours now), but 20% might be too low.

[blp]

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140815 2330 14.4 19.4 T1.5/1.5 95L 95L

[cycloneye]

TXNT26 KNES 160004
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 14.4N

D. 19.4W

E. THREE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.5 BASED ON .3 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=1.5. MET=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT. 15/1745 RECLASSIFIED AS
T1.0/1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

15/2107Z 14.4N 19.0W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[CrazyC83]

Based on that ASCAT pass, I'd be almost wiling to say 35 kt and TS Cristobal. Certainly I would expect a special outlook soon with bigger numbers (at least 60%/code red)

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2014081600, , BEST, 0, 147N, 196W, 30, 1009, LO

[SouthDadeFish]

If current organization persists, definitely would qualify as a TC in my book. Lets see how it looks in ~12 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Special TWO: 50%.

[CrazyC83]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
935 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss the system over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.

1. Updated: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an
area of low pressure located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Cape Verde Islands continues to show signs of
organization. Satellite data indicate that the low is producing
winds of around 35 mph and that the surface circulation has become
better defined during the past few hours. Some additional
development is possible, and a tropical depression could form in the
next 12 to 24 hours while this system moves westward to west-
northwestward at around 5 mph. After that time, environmental
conditions are expected to become less conducive for development or
strengthening. Interests in the Cape Verde Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 day...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Brennan/Berg

[TheStormExpert]

This reminds me of Humberto from last season which started to developed right as it was leaving the west Africa coast, except this one will be lucky to even obtain minimal TS status IMO.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks rather interesting ATM, of course that could all change overnight and by the time morning arrives it could be a struggling disturbance like we've seen with MANY systems in the past.

I also wonder why they put the X on the eastern side of the convection when it's obviously well organized ATM?