Global model runs discussion

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Alyono
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#7241 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 16, 2014 10:39 am

EC does show a TD/weak TS moving through the islands in about 7-8 days. It quickly dissipates in the eastern Caribbean
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#7242 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:28 am

Alyono wrote:EC does show a TD/weak TS moving through the islands in about 7-8 days. It quickly dissipates in the eastern Caribbean


would probably still need to be watched as there is less sinking motion in the Caribbean

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#7243 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:29 am

I believe what the ECMWF is developing is pouch 17L. The 12Z GFS that is running now out to 192 hours is no longer dissipating this low as it approaches the Southern/Central Leewards. It's still doesn't develop the low but it has trended a little bit closer to the ECMWF on this run.
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#7244 Postby NDG » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:30 am

Alyono wrote:EC does show a TD/weak TS moving through the islands in about 7-8 days. It quickly dissipates in the eastern Caribbean


Time to start paying attention to the euro to see if it becomes consistent with last night's solution.

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#7245 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 16, 2014 11:52 am

12Z GFS does show a California storm in the long range. 0 and yesterday's 12Z CMC showed one in about 7 days
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#7246 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 16, 2014 1:58 pm

ECMWF finally shows an Atlantic hurricane it looks like in the 12Z run...I believe it is developing pouch 17L and I posted the graphic in that thread.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#7247 Postby Alyono » Sat Aug 16, 2014 2:04 pm

yep... shows a decent hurricane striking Bermuda in about 10 days
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#7248 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 17, 2014 11:47 am

12Z GFS again has no TCs through 16 days.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7249 Postby Hammy » Sun Aug 17, 2014 12:22 pm

Odd switch from last year, Euro is showing one, maybe two systems, while the GFS is showing nothing; I'm getting the feeling that the GFS is having the opposite problem now as it did poorly with all three systems so far this year.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7250 Postby Fego » Sun Aug 17, 2014 1:31 pm

UKMT 12utc run is as bullish as the 0z ECMWF. I guess that is one of the reasons why the NHC rose to 30% the five days outlook.


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.2N 39.2W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2014 12.2N 39.2W WEAK

00UTC 20.08.2014 14.4N 41.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 14.8N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.3N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.0N 60.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.6N 63.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7251 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 17, 2014 6:59 pm

18Z GFS has something forming in 60 hours, and holds onto a weak storm through 190.

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#7252 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:00 pm

12Z GFS has a weak TS near Texas at day 16
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Re:

#7253 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:03 pm

The ECMWF is showing no tropical development in the Atlantic that would threaten the US or Caribbean islands through 240 hours (10 days). Look at the long-wave pattern at the end at day 10 with the usual trough over Eastern North America and a big ridge out west - seems like this long-wave pattern doesn't want to break!

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7254 Postby blp » Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Riptide wrote:Why would you want that, Winter in Florida is boring as all get out....lol. I know because I lived there for 9 years. It's also very dry during that time of the year.

Never said I wanted winter. Just want this dreadfully dull and boring season to end.

Personally I'm not even close to being ready for winter, feels like summer just started.


Can you take this to another thread? Nobody wants to here how bored you are.

Back on topic:

I don't know which pouch this is but 30-32W is where the action is starting to heat up. The voriticity has strengthened into that area and the best spin is going on there right now. The mid level spin is slightly off to the west of the low level.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

850mb
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:27 pm

Moved the winter posts to this thread at Winter Forum so we can post the model runs and not turn off-topic.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7256 Postby Riptide » Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:33 pm

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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7257 Postby blp » Mon Aug 18, 2014 2:57 pm

UKMET not giving up instead it has it stronger.... We will see this is a good test after the upgrade.

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 12.0N 36.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 19.08.2014 12.8N 37.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 20.08.2014 14.3N 40.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 20.08.2014 14.9N 44.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.08.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.6N 52.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2014 12.2N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 13.5N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 15.9N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 61.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 17.0N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.7N 66.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 68.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 21.3N 70.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
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#7258 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:00 pm

:uarrow: 132 hour Image for 12Z UKMET text run above:

Image
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7259 Postby ronjon » Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:06 pm

Wow direct hit on Hispanola from the UKMET. Doesn't the UKMET have the bext track record for cyclogenesis of all global models?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion

#7260 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 18, 2014 3:12 pm

ronjon wrote:Wow direct hit on Hispanola from the UKMET. Doesn't the UKMET have the bext track record for cyclogenesis of all global models?


It has been quite a reliable model in the past but it recently took a pretty major SW upgrade.
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