Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[gatorcane]

Its got some pretty good spin to it but may choke in sinking air near by.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Good loop, thanks for sharing. From what I can see, popcorn convection is increasing around the "llc" tonight...this is a good sign as it looks to be fighting the SAL.

Also there is a bouy out there near this pouch and it is reporting light winds out of the west the past day or so:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[TheStormExpert]

Still has a ways to go but making decent progress IMO for a wave traversing through hostile conditions.

[TheStormExpert]

Notice the area around this wave was trying to gradually moisten up, but has since been stabilizing again(clouds are waning).

[Hurricaneman]

This is going to have to be watched especially those in the NE windward islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola first but beyond that is anyone's guess

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[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad low pressure area located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it begins to move slowly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Alyono]

and the EC now, while still briefly developing this, rapidly weakens it as it approaches the Caribbean. More reasonable solution

[ninel conde]

air is just too dry.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located midway between the Lesser Antilles
and the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Alyono]

In the unlikely event that anything does form, it likely will be very weak and recurve east of Bermuda. Not even any low level ridging to force this to the west

[cycloneye]

There is some competition going on between small monsoon gyres,one around 12N-39W and another at 12N-28W. Maybe this is what have the models not being too clear on development and track. IMO,the one at 12N-39W looks like the dominant right now but that could change.

[SFLcane]

Post via twitter @Michael Ventrice

Expect probabilities to increase w/ Atlantic MDR invest. EC ENS shows increased risk for Southeastern U.S. landfall.

[blp]

UKmet from 00z continues to be optimistic about development. It is considered one of the most conservative models. This and Euro being onboard has my attention since they both are conservative.

[blp]

I see three different scenarios playing out in the models right now. The UKmet is furthest west followed by the Euro in the middle and the GFS/CMC/Navgem furthest east. The models are struggling to pinpoint where development will form out of what looks like a big monsoon gyre. Very complicated evolution. I think looking at anything beyond 5 days is very speculative since the origin of development will dictate where it will be when a weakness develops in the ridge.

[chaser1]

Given the dry air and light shear and being such a broad system, if it does increase in organization.... at least it won't be something that will be "sneaking up" and catching people without warning. On the other hand, if you look farther west and at the preceeding wave that more or less "poofed" as it traversed the Eastern Caribbean and got tangled up with D.R./Haiti, suddenly I am seeing a ramp up of convection on its northern axis. Now, here we have a former invest with plenty of spin that might well be in an environment that is less hostile. As a very small area of vorticity, these type of systems could ramp up fairly quickly (given optimum conditions). Be interesting to see if this area of convection just north of Haiti were to increase in area & maintain itself throughout the day.

[cycloneye]

Well,the Canadian is the Canadian.

[gatorcane]

12Z GEM has the most bullish run yet and similar to the ECMWF on track. Yikes for Bermuda if this verifies!

240 hour saved image:

[tropicwatch]

Struggling to get convection going to day.

[Riptide]

Yeah, the GFS Ensembles and GEM are really enthusiastic about this system. The vast majority of ensemble members feature a SE landfall or East Coast scenario.

[Alyono]

CMC develops this WAY too soon. Not even close to reality

As for a US threat, won't we need a Bermuda HIGH? The operational models are all showing a Bermuda LOW

[Riptide]

CMC develops this WAY too soon. Not even close to reality

As for a US threat, won't we need a Bermuda HIGH? The operational models are all showing a Bermuda LOW

50/50 chance, could go either way. I don't expect the 500mb pattern to hold this far out and clearly the ensembles are seeing something the operational is not picking up on.