At what point will the GA/SC coast be "out of the woods

[Raebie]

It looks like most of the models are now in agreement that Isabel will track well north of their coastline. But at what point (ie, a defininte turn at a specific longitude?) will we know with relative certainty that the models will hold up?

Raebie is one confused newbie...so many differing opinions, so little time...

[Josephine96]

Raebie.. This is my opinion.. You will be "out of the woods" when the storm is dead or north of your latitude...

I am the same way down here in Florida.. I will be "out of the woods" when the storm is North of my latitude lol

[Stormsfury]

Florida is 99.8% out of the woods...Georgia, about 80%...

South Carolina is about 50% out of the woods.

SF

[Josephine96]

LOL Thank you Storms Fury.. Maybe I should re name you.. number cruncher.. cause you always seem to have numbers with you in your posts

[JetMaxx]

I firmly believe the Georgia coast is now safe.....but South Carolina residents still need to closely monitor latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center....especially those coastal residents living from Georgetown northward to the North Carolina state line.

[Stormsfury]

I firmly believe the Georgia coast is now safe.....but South Carolina residents still need to closely monitor latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center....especially those coastal residents living from Georgetown northward to the North Carolina state line.

I sentiment that Perry. The window still exists from the NHC window and that's why SC is only 50% IMO.

SF

[JetMaxx]

I've been plotting the 96 and 120 NHC forecast positions on my chart SF, and so far, Isabel has passed within 150 miles of each....so even if the NHC 72 and 96 hour forecast positions from this morning are off by 200 miles to the west (which is extremely unlikely), the landfall point would still be only as far west as Myrtle Beach -- why I firmly believe the Georgia Coast is now safe...as is the Hilton Head and Charleston areas.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

the LANDFALL point

The storm is 500 miles from the center.

[JetMaxx]

the LANDFALL point

The storm is 500 miles from the center.

I'm not sure I understand your post. Tropical storm force winds do not extend 500 miles from the center....especially not on the west side of the hurricane. Even in the largest hurricanes, tropical storm force winds rarely if ever extend more than 175-200 miles west and south of the center.

The Georgia coast is SAFE....the Charleston area is on the borderline of being "out of the woods". From Georgetown to Myrtle Beach, I'd still be concerned...at least the next 12 hours to see just how far west the turn occurs....but even there, the odds are now low of seeing hurricane conditions.

[chris_fit]

When you still make that Mofo move to the north :-P


In the meantime i have been away eating crow?


Cheers!

~Chris

[ColdFront77]

LOL Thank you Storms Fury.. Maybe I should re name you.. number cruncher.. cause you always seem to have numbers with you in your posts

Mike, no chance at all for Hurricane Isabel to affect Florida with her current position and movement? No matter what happens.

John, you haven't seen many of my posts, then.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I was just saying how large the storm was FROM THE EYE. I understand how far out winds go. If it LANDFALLS 250 miles from me, would'nt I at least get some rain or something being the storm is 500 miles wide??