Texas Summer - 2014

[Ntxw]

Plenty of that on the streets that I can see

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC113-121-171615-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0046.140817T1413Z-140817T1615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
913 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 912 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM NEAR LEWISVILLE SOUTH
TO GRAND PRAIRIE...MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATED THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
IN THE WARNED AREA AND ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 1115 AM.

* LOCATIONS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE...ADDISON...FARMERS BRANCH...IRVING...CEDAR HILL STATE
PARK...GLENN HEIGHTS...GRAND PRAIRIE...DUNCANVILLE...DESOTO...
COCKRELL HILL AND CEDAR HILL.

[Ntxw]

Some good rainfall totals in the urban core. The good news, the official site (DFW airport) recorded 2.80 inches of rain so far today no empty hole this time. Bad news, all this rain doesn't benefit much to the big water district lakes. Mostly down the trinity. Most of Dallas county goes to SE Texas through the trinity. Good for lawns.

[somethingfunny]

I've observed some rather weird lightning behavior with this system. Take a look at how much lightning is occurring in Wise/Denton counties behind the rain right now! And from the radar loop I saved earlier this morning, look at that odd west-east band of heavy lightning:





I've had a few long and low thunder rumbles here at mi casa with house-shaking and window rattling lasting for as long as ten seconds. The weirdest one was just a few minutes ago. The low and slow rumble began, and about halfway through it there came three sharp staccato booms that really reverberated in my windows and set off car alarms. Yet none of it has been loud enough to imply a nearby lightning strike at all.

[asd123]

I consider the Wunderground lightning maps to be highly erroneous. I've had cases where there were big lightning producers (lightning trackers on TV were filled, while the Wunderground maps were barely showing lightning. Instead if you want real lightning tracking, go to http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=en

[TheProfessor]

Yeah, we got some good rain here too.

[Ntxw]

Something interesting. As far as last night the models were predicting 100F+ and maybe an afternoon shower for DFW, to put it nicely this is a complete and total embarrassing bust by the major globals both Euro and GFS. mid 80s look more like it if we're lucky and break these clouds. As far as a few days ago it was supposed to be wall to wall hot through early week.

[gpsnowman]

This is incredible. Downpour after downpour with big thunder and lightning here in GP. Was not expecting any of this. Ntwx is correct, major bust in model land. My cracked yard is loving this.

[WeatherGuesser]

Storms bring wettest August day in 20 years
WFAA - ‎21 minutes ago‎



Some much-needed rain came down heavy and fast, making Sunday officially the wettest August day in 20 years at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport, the area's official reporting station.

/////////////

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Some good rainfall totals in the urban core. The good news, the official site (DFW airport) recorded 2.80 inches of rain so far today no empty hole this time. Bad news, all this rain doesn't benefit much to the big water district lakes. Mostly down the trinity. Most of Dallas county goes to SE Texas through the trinity. Good for lawns.

If I remember my watershed maps correctly, most of Collin county drains into Lavon. Yesterday was a good day for Lavon.

[gboudx]

If I remember my watershed maps correctly, most of Collin county drains into Lavon. Yesterday was a good day for Lavon.

Speaking of Lake Lavon, I did some research yesterday on it's pool elevation for this summer, compared to the past 2 summers, from 6/1 to current date. So far this Summer, Lavon started at 480.63 and is at 480.51. Water levels have stayed near level this summer.

For 2013, start 6/1/2013 - 484.81, end 8/18/2013 - 482.11
For 2012, start 6/1/2012 - 491.47, end 8/18/2013 - 487.20

At least this summer it hasn't lost as much water as the previous 2.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

If I remember my watershed maps correctly, most of Collin county drains into Lavon. Yesterday was a good day for Lavon.

Speaking of Lake Lavon, I did some research yesterday on it's pool elevation for this summer, compared to the past 2 summers, from 6/1 to current date. So far this Summer, Lavon started at 480.63 and is at 480.51. Water levels have stayed near level this summer.

For 2013, start 6/1/2013 - 484.81, end 8/18/2013 - 482.11
For 2012, start 6/1/2012 - 491.47, end 8/18/2013 - 487.20

At least this summer it hasn't lost as much water as the previous 2.

There are several factors driving that, including some okay summer rains and the fact that many of the municipalties that use that source have been in Stage 3 restrictions since the beginning of the year. BTW, I think that Stage 3 is too harsh and should be revisited at some point.

[Portastorm]

From @WSI_Energy this afternoon on Twitter:

This upcoming Sunday could be the hottest day of the 2014 Summer in the Southern Plains #100s #Heat #Texas

[Portastorm]

Interesting comment this afternoon out of NWSFO EWX. They comment on the poor model performance as of late in Texas ... something which Ntxw and others referenced this weekend per their rain event(s).


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
341 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MODELS OF ALL RESOLUTIONS WERE OF LITTLE HELP IN THE DEPICTION OF
RAIN LOCATIONS FOR SUNDAY AND TODAY. THE BEST PREDICTOR HAS
BEEN SATELLITE VIS IMAGERY SHOWING THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
PATTERNS FROM NRN MEXICO EXTENDING NE INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.
DESPITE THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS...THE NAM QPF LOOKS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SLIGHT EASTWARD DRIFT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE
RAIN CHANCES WEST OF I-35 AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD AGAIN RESULT ISOLATED 2 INCH
RAINS...WITH THE STRONG HEATING ALSO CAPABLE OF PROMOTING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS. ANOTHER FEATURE NOTED IN THE NAM MODEL IS A DECENT
DEPICTION OF THE TUTT LOW CONVECTION SPREADING NORTH FROM THE SWRN
GULF TOWARD S TX. THE IMPACTS OF THIS MOISTURE INFLUX IS NOT
LIKELY TO HELP TONIGHT...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME EXTRA RAIN
CHANCE MENTION WITH 10-20 POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE ON
TUESDAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE HAS CURBED SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING
BY A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY AND COULD DO SO AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD FORM A
FEW DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF WHICH HAS HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS SHOWN IN
MODEL CONSENSUS TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS THE CENTER DRIFT NW
TOWARD THE ARK-LA-TEX BY THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

[Ntxw]

Another heat wave day thwarted here in North Texas. Lots of unforeseen things as Porta mention.

There may be a major EPAC hurricane that could develop in the mid to long range that will ride up just off the west coast of MX. Any development here needs to watched because even if it does not directly effect us, it will bring in mid level moisture. If the eastern ridge does indeed anchor itself we may see gulf moisture at the same time in the lower levels. It's getting near that time of year again when EPAC systems recurve, even more so this year as the basin is experiencing a very active season.

Lots of significant El Nino like years in the analogs with some good rain events for the state particularly the top 3

[South Texas Storms]

A slow moving cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving through the Hill Country. Flash flooding is possible with the strongest storms. These storms could make it to San Antonio later tonight.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like Medina Lake may be a beneficiary of the rain.

Flash Flood Warning

10:40 PM CDT, 8/18
expires 12:45 AM CDT, 8/19

...A Flash Flood Warning remains in effect until 1245 am CDT for
central Bandera County...

At 1032 PM CDT...NWS meteorologists continued to detect showers and
thunderstorm producing very heavy rain over the warned area. Rainfall
amounts of one to two inches per hour will continue. At the Medina
River at Patterson Road in Medina the USGS rainfall gage has
reported 1.45 inches in the past hour.

Locations in the warning include but are not limited to Medina

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams...country roads...as well as farmland along the
banks of creeks and streams.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding. If flash flooding is observed act quickly. Move
up to higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas
subject to flooding when water begins rising.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

Lat...Lon 2988 9953 2988 9918 2964 9910 2964 9956

----------------

[somethingfunny]

The 6z GFS has a surprise for us this morning!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The 6z GFS has a surprise for us this morning!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

I'm no model reader, but I'm guessing that could really make the opening weekend of college football just a little damp.

[Ntxw]

I don't really buy that. Too much shear and EPAC development will probably hinder anything that is in the Carib/Gulf within this month. I think it's likely a phantom storm by the GFS. What do I buy is perhaps a surge of moisture brought by shear axis.

[South Texas Storms]

Unfortunately the complex of showers and thunderstorms stalled just west of San Antonio last night, but at least a large area of the Hill Country, Medina Lake, and the Edwards Aquifer Recharge Zone received heavy rain from this system. Some places received over 3 inches of rain last night.