Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[TheStormExpert]

There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.

Good luck with that. Lol

Conditions are now just aggravatingly horrible, with no hope in sight!

This graphic cycloneye posted in another thread tells the whole story right now.

[cycloneye]

Pardon this but I am going off topic here as I have to post the UKMET upgrade made a couple of weeks ago.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/s ... i_v2.0.pdf

[blp]

FWIW, the FIM models are starting to show similar development in the timeframe. Certainly has not been the most reliable model.

[blp]

Care to share an explanation for grouping it with the CMC. The Ukmet has never come even close to being like the CMC. It has always been the among most conservative unlike the CMC. Also, look up the stats, it is one of the more reliable models.

It was just recently upgraded and it and the CMC alone are the only models right now that develop this.

Well that clarifies things.... really??? Just what I thought your statement is pure opinion. You should try to do more research.

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like the big models see the Atlantic becoming more favorable over the next 10 days for this wave and overall.

[canes04]

The area just to the east of the broad low needs to be monitored.
The convection has been impressive today and could take over.

IMOP

[abajan]

The area just to the east of the broad low needs to be monitored.
The convection has been impressive today and could take over.

IMOP

Yes, I've been watching this as well. The convection is continuing to get more impressive by the hour and this is happening during D-MIN.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia

I don't know whether to find this funny, or odd.

[TheStormExpert]

The area just to the east of the broad low needs to be monitored.
The convection has been impressive today and could take over.

IMOP

Yes, I've been watching this as well. The convection is continuing to get more impressive by the hour and this is happening during D-MIN.

I've been wondering if that is what the models are developing, because where the NHC has the X placed there is limited convection.

[Alyono]

This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia

I don't know whether to find this funny, or odd.

you'd understand if you knew Indonesia. That joke does require knowledge of geography and geopolitical politics (or to be a part of an Indonesian family as I am)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with an elongated area of low pressure
located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cape Verde
Islands is currently minimal. No significant development is
expected during the next two days, but conditions could become a
little more favorable by later in the week as the system moves
slowly westward across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hammy]

There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.

While I don't think we'll go the rest of the month without a storm, 1997 had nothing in the Atlantic from July 26-Sep 3.

[Riptide]

There has never been a season with a dead Atlantic in late August, best to not downplay everything. Thanks. I think at least a TS is a sure bet at some point before September.

While I don't think we'll go the rest of the month without a storm, 1997 had nothing in the Atlantic from July 26-Sep 3.

Not comparable considering we had Bertha August 1-14th. 1997 was an absolutely dead year with a strong el nino, shearville per se.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This UK run has a much chance at verifying as a Christian does of becoming the president of Indonesia

I don't know whether to find this funny, or odd.

you'd understand if you knew Indonesia. That joke does require knowledge of geography and geopolitical politics (or to be a part of an Indonesian family as I am)

No, I do know quite a bit of geopolitics. I get the joke. It's just odd for a weather forum.

[tolakram]

Back on topic please.

I posted this in the globals thread. Same system I think....

18Z GFS has something forming in 60 hours, and holds onto a weak storm through 190.

[blp]

The 18z Navgem is a little stronger and further West. So we have UKmet, FIM, CMC, Navgem and Euro to a lesser degree in the general area close to the islands with some type of system. The Ukmet is the fastest right now.

[gatorcane]

blp, what site did you pull that NAVGEM run from? Tropical tidbits site is not working for NAVGEM model.

[blp]

blp, what site did you pull that NAVGEM run from? Tropical tidbits site is not working for NAVGEM model.

Here you go.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=nvg_troplant&set=Tropical

[gatorcane]

blp, what site did you pull that NAVGEM run from? Tropical tidbits site is not working for NAVGEM model.

Here you go.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=nvg_troplant&set=Tropical

Great thanks, bookmarked it. You are right, every global model is developing this wave now at some point except the GFS.

[blp]

Back on topic please.

I posted this in the globals thread. Same system I think....

18Z GFS has something forming in 60 hours, and holds onto a weak storm through 190.

[]http://imageshack.com/a/img674/2113/XDbVOt.png[/img]

]http://imageshack.com/a/img902/8913/kvoP1j.png[/img]

Very good observation. The GFS has actually come around to a different solution than the 12z and if you compare to the other models it is not that far off. It could be considered the Northern outlier to the others.