2014 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Get ready for this.





California TS?

VERY interesting if that actually happens.

Doubt it for now, it's long range.

[Yellow Evan]

Marie




Norbert



Odile

[Yellow Evan]

Marie



Norbert and Odile



Epic MJO pulse. As strong as the one that saved 2013.





Setup we're in favors fishies



Long range CFS hints at a slowdown thereafter.



CMC

[Yellow Evan]

Marie and Norbert



Odile



Ensembles agree on something....big and a MJO outburst that spawns several TC's





Euro shows Norbert, brings it much closer to BCP



UKMET shows 6 TC's at a time, including Norbert and Odile that the GFS shows and a near 0% CPAC system.



FIM shows 3 TC's active at a time.

[Yellow Evan]

Maire

Looks GFS and Euro have flipped flopped. A couple days ago, the GFS was sending a hurricane to BCS and 91E into BCN. While the Euro takes both out to sea. Now the reverse is happening



Norbert.

Looks like Odile was dropped.



CMC siding with the GFS

[CaliforniaResident]

With all this activity in the EPAC, I predict that Southern California will have its first TS landfall since 1939 this season: I am going to say it will happen towards the end of September.

[CrazyC83]

I think if there is a year in this generation of a California landfall, 2014 it is. All it takes is a well timed trough.

[Yellow Evan]

I think if there is a year in this generation of a California landfall, 2014 it is. All it takes is a well timed trough.

HWRF hints at such possibility. Last runs has it as a hurricane near 30N.



Also shows Marie, but outside of the parent domain.



GFDL also has it as a hurricane at a high latitude.

[Kingarabian]

Tough to make it to California with all these storms pulling one another.

I think a certain model will show this certain scenario but only for one or two runs. Then reality kicks in. But you never know.

[Yellow Evan]

Tough to make it to California with all these storms pulling one another.

I think a certain model will show this certain scenario but only for one or two runs. Then reality kicks in. But you never know.

It's tougher than Hawaii, though Hawaii has one disadvantage that California does not have, the Great Hawaiian Shear.

[Yellow Evan]

Formation



Peak

Euro's track has shifted west

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure could form in several days a few hundred
miles south or southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Some
development of this system is expected by later this week while the
low moves roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[CrazyC83]

If we get to O or P before the end of August, the Greek Alphabet better be ready. Even in the 2005 Atlantic season, we were only at L at that point.

Also it seems this year there is more interest than ever in the EPAC...I guess because a slow Atlantic season was expected by almost everyone, and the EPAC and CPAC have gone bonkers so far...

[Yellow Evan]

If we get to O or P before the end of August, the Greek Alphabet better be ready. Even in the 2005 Atlantic season, we were only at L at that point.

It's still a little tough to go Greek. ven if we get to P, we have R, S, T, V, W, X,Y,Z. That's 8 names left, plus 1 for Alpha. CFS is hinting at a slow down for September, so I would not count on anything more than a 2009-like September (4 storms). There's still 5 names left. We'd have to have 2013s October and November to go Greek.Tough but doable/

[Ntxw]

EPAC could be getting a pretty strong Kelvin wave heading in the last stretch of August, perhaps as strong if not better than July. I would expect some pretty strong systems out of this. Though the MJO is against it but it's pretty weak so may not matter, not that it did much of this season here anyway.

120W mark is where you want to look



(Blues and Purples are convectively active)

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC could be getting a pretty strong Kelvin wave heading in the last stretch of August, perhaps as strong if not better than July. I would expect some pretty strong systems out of this. Though the MJO is against it but it's pretty weak so may not matter, not that it did much of this season here anyway.

120W mark is where you want to look

http://i60.tinypic.com/2dc7ked.png

(Blues and Purples are convectively active)

\

This begs to differ that the MJO is against. But it has it retrograding, and it's been subject for debate whether it actually does this.

Any chance we could get a CCKW followed by MJO like we did last time. Impressed that this could be stronger than the great one that spawned in July.

[Ntxw]

This begs to differ that the MJO is against. But it has it retrograding, and it's been subject for debate whether it actually does this.

Any chance we could get a CCKW followed by MJO like we did last time. Impressed that this could be stronger than the great one that spawned in July.

MJO is very weak and incohorent, hardly detectable, I think what the models may be zoning in some Atlantic activity (TC) or not and mistaking it for p1 but I'm not skilled in that to say for sure. Regardless I don't think it matters, we won't see a significant MJO event until next month I think starting in the IO and pressing east in the WPAC. Annually the MJO is most active during Spring and Fall. In the other seasons often its in weaker form.

[Yellow Evan]

This begs to differ that the MJO is against. But it has it retrograding, and it's been subject for debate whether it actually does this.

Any chance we could get a CCKW followed by MJO like we did last time. Impressed that this could be stronger than the great one that spawned in July.

MJO is very weak and incohorent, hardly detectable, I think what the models may be zoning in some Atlantic activity (TC) or not and mistaking it for p1 but I'm not skilled in that to say for sure. Regardless I don't think it matters, we won't see a significant MJO event until next month I think starting in the IO and pressing east in the WPAC. Annually the MJO is most active during Spring and Fall. In the other seasons often its in weaker form.

Well, we are approaching fall. I recall a big MJO pulse at this same time last year.

[Ntxw]

Well, we are approaching fall. I recall a big MJO pulse at this same time last year.

I do recall that. Also we have to consider the MJO is also more active during neutral years like last year. Though not official I think the Pacific has behaved more El Nino like for awhile. ENSO can mask the MJO and force convection in their favored areas to that event.

[Yellow Evan]

Well, we are approaching fall. I recall a big MJO pulse at this same time last year.

I do recall that. Also we have to consider the MJO is also more active during neutral years like last year. Though not official I think the Pacific has behaved more El Nino like for awhile. ENSO can mask the MJO and force convection in their favored areas to that event.

Good point, though some El Nino years have had good MJO pulses (i.e 2006). I think too some extent MJO has been glued and while been rather weak overall this summer, has been stronger in the Pacific than anywhere else due to the warm SST's.

I agree that the Pacific has been in El Nino mode for quite some time, despite weeklies/SOI not fully showing it.