Tropical Wave between CV islands and Lesser Antilles

[Hurricaneman]

it seems to be the area to watch and maybe the NHC will add that to their outlook in the next day or 2 also it seems to have the best conditions of the 3 areas

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[Sanibel]

Not sure if it is connected to anything at the surface or just an ITCZ flare up.

[Hurricaneman]

Not sure if it is connected to anything at the surface or just an ITCZ flare up.

the GFS does something of a weak low with it at some point then totally dissipates it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Fego]

Take your pick. More seriously, central and east Atlantic are like a twilight zone for the models.

[Hurricaneman]

This one is starting to get that look of something organizing so thid may need to be watched for futher development even looks like the start of some banding

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[OURAGAN]

2 lows will merge

[Hurricaneman]

2 lows will merge

the thing is it seems to be staying its own entity, as for the 2day 10% and 5day 30% if I were in the NHCs shoes I would move it to this area as this area seems to be absorbing pouch 017L

[cycloneye]

That graphic was the 06Z analysis. As I posted at the Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles thread the 12z graphic the red low (Ex95L) will dissipate leaving only one .

[Sanibel]

I think we are watching the slow motion build up of more moisture in the formation zone until climatological forcing overcomes the dry air mass and forms a system.

[cycloneye]

This area is mentioned.

An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is
associated with a tropical wave. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur over the next several days while it
moves to the west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[abajan]

Well now ... with two areas of interest mentioned in the latest TWO, the next several days should be ... interesting!

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[tropicwatch]

Both area's now have some fair convection and they look closer together. There might be a merger in the works

[abajan]

Both area's now have some fair convection and they look closer together. There might be a merger in the works

And now there appears to be yet another player emerging (just southwest of the Cape Verdes).

[Blown Away]

Both area's now have some fair convection and they look closer together. There might be a merger in the works

[canes04]

I believe Panama mentioned a merger may occur.. This may be the case.
It may take a day or 2, but would not be surprised if this happens.

As far as track, it's way to early to speculate until we get a true center.

[SFLcane]

WSI on twitter..Overnight numerical model guidance has trended much more aggressive with developing a western MDR tropical cyclone.

[gatorcane]

Looks how much the SAL has broken up in the area east of the Leewards...looks more favorable than a month ago when Bertha was tracking through the area.

[tropicwatch]

The eastern Caribbean is also moistening up.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.