Reanalysis questions
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Re: Reanalysis questions
Note that on the Camille loop the radar is not properly located, so the grid is off. Margie Kieper said that she didn't learn until after she spent 60 hours putting the loop together that the radar was NOT located at the airport in 1969, it was located close to downtown New Orleans. Therefore, the grid is off 10-15 miles. This makes a big difference with respect to the location that the eyewall hits the MS coast.
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Re: Reanalysis questions
Looks a bit like Hurricane Katrina. Camille and Katrina made landfall in almost the same location.
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Re: Reanalysis questions
I tried matching up frames from the radar loop to the satellite image of what I believe was around Camille's peak. What do you think?
From both the radar loop and the satellite image, it looks like she had a tiny eye (not sure what constitutes a true pinhole eye) and a larger eyewall surrounding it.
Also, from the satellite image, she looks pretty big. I looked up her diameter of hurricane force winds and this article says it was 60 miles from the center. Compared to storms like Ike and Carla, (both had hurricane force winds extending over 100 nm from the center) she was small, but compared to a storm like Iris, which had hurricane force winds extending only about 15 miles from the center, she was pretty big. So I guess that would be medium-sized.
From both the radar loop and the satellite image, it looks like she had a tiny eye (not sure what constitutes a true pinhole eye) and a larger eyewall surrounding it.
Also, from the satellite image, she looks pretty big. I looked up her diameter of hurricane force winds and this article says it was 60 miles from the center. Compared to storms like Ike and Carla, (both had hurricane force winds extending over 100 nm from the center) she was small, but compared to a storm like Iris, which had hurricane force winds extending only about 15 miles from the center, she was pretty big. So I guess that would be medium-sized.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.
I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
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Re: Re:
HURAKAN wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.
I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:HURAKAN wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.
I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.
I would not be surprised if there are more storms that went undetected because of how storms were classified back than. I suspect the number will go up if those boxes are opened. Some seasons that looked inactive in satellite era like 1962, 1977, and 1983 could have more storms than previously thought.
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Re: Re:
Ptarmigan wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:HURAKAN wrote:
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
From what I've gathered, there are a lot of unopened boxes there.
I would not be surprised if there are more storms that went undetected because of how storms were classified back than. I suspect the number will go up if those boxes are opened. Some seasons that looked inactive in satellite era like 1962, 1977, and 1983 could have more storms than previously thought.
Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:
NCDC, I'm planning a trip next month or so to look for them
Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.
The Dvorak technique was in its infancy at best during those days. Likely anything they view as a T2.5 in a modern reanalysis they would consider and a T3.0 in a modern reanalysis they would almost certainly add to HURDAT. I would think it would *mostly* only affect the number of weak storms. I think in the early days they were mostly looking for eye formations, and those don't usually appear until at least a T4.0 - and as high as a T5.0 - in Dvorak classifications.
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Re: Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:
The Dvorak technique was in its infancy at best during those days. Likely anything they view as a T2.5 in a modern reanalysis they would consider and a T3.0 in a modern reanalysis they would almost certainly add to HURDAT. I would think it would *mostly* only affect the number of weak storms. I think in the early days they were mostly looking for eye formations, and those don't usually appear until at least a T4.0 - and as high as a T5.0 - in Dvorak classifications.
I believe the eye pattern in Dvorak starts at T4.0. Also another thing, they probably did not ignore Dvoark constraints during RI. A big problem in 1980's EPAC HURDAT.
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Re: Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Well, to be fair, all 3 of those years were El Ninos or coming off an El Nino.
1962-Winter of 1961-1962 and 1962-1963 had cool Neutral that is borderline La Nina.
1977-Winter of 1976-1978 is weak El Nino and 1977-1978 is weak El Nino. A rare back to back El Nino.
1983-Winter of 1982-1983 had strong El Nino and 1983-1984 is moderate La Nina.
1962 had cool PDO, while 1977 and 1983 had warm PDO.
I have noticed hurricane seasons following El Nino being active.
1954
1964
1988
1995
1998
2003
2005
2010
Some of the most active occurred following El Nino.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'm wondering...is there a place to find early satellite images? Say from the late 1960s and 1970s.
I have a feeling the early satellite era will see dramatic changes in number of storms, upward (especially at low intensities).
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/TIROS/
You'll have to do a bit of digging though.
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my masters thesis is now available online!
"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"
http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/
"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"
http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: Reanalysis questions
@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.
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Re:
HURAKAN wrote:my masters thesis is now available online!
"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"
http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/
Wow I clicked this thread to ask when this would be published...
edit: interesting, the Cat 5's of 1960-61 were all lowered.
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Re: Reanalysis questions
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.
I didn't work on those hurricanes, nor Hazel, Donna or Carla. They were already reanalyzed.
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Re: Re:
Hammy wrote:HURAKAN wrote:my masters thesis is now available online!
"Reanalysis of the 1954-1963 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons"
http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/1511/
Wow I clicked this thread to ask when this would be published...
edit: interesting, the Cat 5's of 1960-61 were all lowered.
Ethel had it coming! lol
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Re: Reanalysis questions
HURAKAN wrote:Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:@ HURAKAN thanks for sharing, I've seen two other studies with near identical conclusions regarding Carol & Edna of 1954. I'll be glad when the official changes to HURDAT are finally codified.
I didn't work on those hurricanes, nor Hazel, Donna or Carla. They were already reanalyzed.
Yeah they've been for awhile now, but it hasn't been made official in HURDAT yet grrrr.
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