Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[PTrackerLA]

Has there ever been 2 big hurricanes in the Gulf before? If it happened would they both weaken, or would one weaken and the other strengthen? Would it change the paths of one of the storms? Is it possible that the potential Caribbean could track through the western GOM while the northern potential storm turns toward the Florida Keys and into the eastern Gulf? Or is that just a highly unlikely disaster movie type scenario? what kind of affects could occur if it happened? Would it cause a higher storm surge?

Sorry I'm young and curious and tropical weather is probably what I know least of.

The GFS and Canadian are showing the same system just different tracks...

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you chaser1. I am definitely not wanting to jump the gun here until we get one, consolidated designated tropical cyclone to develop.

But, given the potential set-up with the models and if a tropical cyclone does develop and survive in the coming days, I would suggest all interests in the Greater Antilles, the NW Caribbean and along the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida peninsula should begin to pay attention. Again, provided IF we get TC development.


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[chaser1]

Has there ever been 2 big hurricanes in the Gulf before? If it happened would they both weaken, or would one weaken and the other strengthen? Would it change the paths of one of the storms? Is it possible that the potential Caribbean could track through the western GOM while the northern potential storm turns toward the Florida Keys and into the eastern Gulf? Or is that just a highly unlikely disaster movie type scenario? what kind of affects could occur if it happened? Would it cause a higher storm surge?

Sorry I'm young and curious and tropical weather is probably what I know least of.

The only bad questions are those "never asked"
Though more common in the Pacific, two Hurricane's with close proximity would usually cause the upper level winds (anticyclone) from the hurricane that is further west, to "tear away" the upper levels of the approaching hurricane from the east. A more realistic scenario of two hurricanes in the Gulf might be where a much smaller hurricane might impacting somewhere along the Texas Coastline, and perhaps an approaching larger system from the Caribbean moves into the Southeast Gulf and perhaps threatening anywhere from the Florida Keys to Louisiana. "That" scenario would not have one hurricane impacting the motion of the other, however depending on the size of the two storms and where they are in relation to the other, "yes", the existence of the westernmost hurricane could be pushed more westward while the eastern approaching hurricane could be steered with a more northwest motion (due to the hurricane to its west). There are so many other impacting factors though, each scenario is really unique.

[wxman57]

I'm seeing New Orleans

And I'm seeing right between you two - MS coast. Models are sniffing out something. I wouldn't focus on one possible landfall area at this time.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles are clustered in the Bahamas a week from now:

[chaser1]

Areas potentially impacted will certainly hope that near term development will cause the next system to graze north of the Lessor Antilles rather than to their south (of course, you guys IN the Antilles would just assume it not graze anywhere near you LOL)

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[northjaxpro]

Makes sense to increase the percentages with the models all showing development of some sort in the days ahead.

[gatorcane]

Up to 30%/40%:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WOAT.shtml

[chaser1]

uh oh.... "high octane waiting"

[Steve]

Real interesting 57. 12Z GFS is almost a Camille styled track (obviously different origin) but coming across Western Cuba (though slightly East of Camille which only hit extreme Western Cuba); also moving with a slightly more westerly component in the track north of Cuba ending up near the Mouth and MS Gulf Coast. Lower level moisture and pressure seems a little farther west, but farther East at 500mb ("X" crosses Baldwin County, AL). A nice compromise being this far out (showing landfall around 216 hours or so which is 9 days from 7am this morning Central or 7am next Thursday) would be the Gulf Coast of MS or possibly a system not all that together which could be why the different levels are slightly off.

What GFS 12Z shows is a trough off the east coast, but system passing too far south to get picked up. Meanwhile, a strong surface high is centered around or just off the LA coast with ridging nosing in from the Atlantic across Florida. High weakens a little, and system comes up NW.

While it's certainly too early to even guess that anything will be in the Gulf toward the end of next week, curiosity is piqued. The heat potential is insane, and the Gulf is boiling even if not way above normal. There are obviously a ton of different possible outcomes from nothing at all forming up to a memorable system for the storm weary. It certainly gives everyone something to watch. Personally, I'm hesitant to even guess whether it will develop or what might happen as it is obviously too early. And there isn't much model consensus outside of several of them anticipating a surface low pressure system. Having said all that, end of August + Caribbean = conceptually scary.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

12Z GFS Ensembles are clustered in the Bahamas a week from now:

If its anwhere near there next monday night then Florida with that setup might have a problem but as we all know the pattern could be different next week than modeled here but it does raise an eyebrow even around here in Clermont but theres just as much chance of it heading to Texas at this point and we don't even know if this will become anything yet

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

12Z GFS Ensembles are clustered in the Bahamas a week from now:

That is very similar to last night's Euro operational run.

[Hurricaneman]

I wouldn't be surprised if this gets designated as Invest 96L very shortly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[gatorcane]

Here they come, twin systems? It's suddenly not too quite in the Atlantic any longer...

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT
20-25 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE
TO BE S OF 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N
BETWEEN 46W-56W.

[Ivanhater]

Taking off from las Vegas to Pensacola right now and a flight out of Pensacola next week...hopefully no weather delays

[northjaxpro]

I wouldn't be surprised if this gets designated as Invest 96L very shortly

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

We have it.

AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 490W, 20, 1009, DB

[tolakram]

Is Invest 96L viewtopic.php?f=59&t=116616&hilit=