ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[cycloneye]

Models here.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1801 UTC TUE AUG 19 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20140819 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140819 1800 140820 0600 140820 1800 140821 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 49.0W 10.9N 50.2W 11.9N 51.9W 12.9N 54.1W
BAMD 10.0N 49.0W 10.1N 51.2W 10.4N 53.6W 10.9N 56.1W
BAMM 10.0N 49.0W 10.3N 51.0W 10.9N 53.2W 11.6N 55.6W
LBAR 10.0N 49.0W 9.9N 51.5W 10.2N 54.5W 10.7N 57.6W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 49KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 36KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140821 1800 140822 1800 140823 1800 140824 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.1N 57.1W 16.4N 64.3W 18.3N 71.9W 19.1N 78.0W
BAMD 11.5N 58.7W 13.4N 63.5W 15.7N 67.5W 17.9N 71.1W
BAMM 12.6N 58.2W 15.0N 63.5W 17.4N 68.9W 19.9N 74.2W
LBAR 11.3N 61.0W 12.6N 67.2W 16.3N 71.9W 17.6N 75.8W
SHIP 62KTS 83KTS 89KTS 91KTS
DSHP 62KTS 83KTS 89KTS 65KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.0N LONCUR = 49.0W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.8N LONM12 = 46.7W DIRM12 = 251DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 43.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET:


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.0N 53.1W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 21.08.2014 12.1N 53.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 21.08.2014 14.6N 55.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 16.5N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 15.7N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.8N 66.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.6N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 18.2N 71.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 19.5N 75.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 25.08.2014 19.6N 76.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 20.9N 79.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[northjaxpro]

Wow, should this verify, UKMET going for rapid intensification approaching landfall near Hispaniola, then getting torn by it as you would expect after tangling with Hispaniola .

[stormlover2013]

pic please

[tolakram]

pic please

There are no pics at the moment for the latest model runs.

[cycloneye]

18z BAMS.

[tolakram]

Euro running.

It appears now to latch onto the first wave ... maybe.

[gatorcane]

Another Pic of those models currently available...

[stormlover2013]

keep updates coming tolakram on euro please

[tolakram]

While weak the euro has now gone south.

[tolakram]

120h, broad low, or possibly a resolution issue on this one with this map.

[stormlover2013]

so where is the euro at 120 hours?

[Kingarabian]

so where is the euro at 120 hours?

Caribbean.

[Alyono]

EC AGAIN is developing the wrong system

I'd give the Canadian more weight than the EC in the deep tropics

[Yellow Evan]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL962014 08/19/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 82 93 95 96 98 96
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 82 93 95 96 98 70
V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 53 64 79 92 100 102 74
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 16 19 16 23 5 7 8 11 18 14
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 4 1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -6 -5
SHEAR DIR 55 64 30 22 35 45 43 22 352 280 300 288 287
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.5

[Kingarabian]

Euro has something broad like Tolokram was saying. Large 1010mb disturbance. Not sure if this is what we're supposed to be looking form.

[tolakram]

Euro loses it at 144. The sharp west to somehow southwest turn between 72 and 96 is very suspicious.

[chaser1]

While weak the euro has now gone south.

I had just posted this to the wrong thread not realizing the invest upgrade so am reposting here. Furthermore, now seeing the latest EURO, and in spite of the current BAM's and UK am even more apt to think this will pass south of Hispanola and E. Cuba.

Originally, I would have assumed that an adequate trough might cause a Caribbean tracker to bend north and threaten the Fla. West Coast or points north. Well, after taking a long look I for one am thinking that the GFS is going way overboard on its future development of essentially a large cutoff mid level low spinning off New England and causing a resultant weakening of the tropical ridge.

Per this mornings GFS 500mb, at 60 hour there are two stout 594 highs, one in the W. Gulf and one NE of Puerto Rico. A weakness along the US Eastern seaboard does exist, but these two anticyclones seems to be fairly well bridged. The large North Atlantic low appears to retreat with time and the Gulf High appears to move north and be expanding eastward. I do not see any resurgent energy moving east and dropping into what looks like a pretty benign 582 Hudson Bay low. In fact at or prior to 120 hours, there is NO Hudson Bay low and all that remains is a trapped 576 low off New England (at about 40N). All the while, the Gulf Upper High is pushed well into the Midwest, the Atlantic tropical ridge appears to be surging westward and the entire West Atlantic and NE U.S. is practically under one large anticyclonic midlevel flow. By 144 hour, the New England cut-off begins to be pulled up and out.

If the forecasted mid level ridging confirms (not unrealistic given that it is the middle of August), than it is my contention that the GFS is overplaying the closed cut-off low off New England. I do not think that it will break down such ridging (if it truly takes place), and this would lend for a system that is already in the Central Caribbean, to track further west where greater OHC exists and ultimately appear to steer such a system under a more dominant ridge toward perhaps the Texas or W. Louisiana coastline. Now, should a T.S. form a bit further north, than its development will likely be hindered by land (until perhaps reaching 80W?). Still seems that the result would remain more or less the same. Obviously I could be wrong and a deeper trough could degrade the ridging over the N. Caribbean, in which I suppose a system might "pop" north of Central or W. Cuba. Could be a scenario for a stall though, with the eventual retreating E. Coast trough, followed by a slow WNW or NW motion under a building ridge

[gatorcane]

Originally, I would have assumed that an adequate trough might cause a Caribbean tracker to bend north and threaten the Fla. West Coast or points north. Well, after taking a long look I for one am thinking that the GFS is going way overboard on its future development of essentially a large cutoff mid level low spinning off New England and causing a resultant weakening of the tropical ridge.

The Euro is also showing a large weakness over the Bahamas and Western Atlantic at 144 hours - you would think a somewhat deep system in the Caribbean would get pulled some to the NW towards that weakness. Euro keeps the low broad and doesn't develop it so it heads west with the low-level flow: