ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Post away.
AL, 96, 2014081818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 438W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 453W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081906, , BEST, 0, 108N, 467W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081912, , BEST, 0, 104N, 479W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 490W, 20, 1009, DB
Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116570&hilit=&start=0
AL, 96, 2014081818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 438W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081900, , BEST, 0, 113N, 453W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081906, , BEST, 0, 108N, 467W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081912, , BEST, 0, 104N, 479W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 30, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2014081918, , BEST, 0, 100N, 490W, 20, 1009, DB
Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116570&hilit=&start=0
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- northjaxpro
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Rather strong at initialization. 1009 mb is decent.
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- Cunxi Huang
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Great- -
1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Waiting on floaters, they have 96L listed but no images yet.
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- micktooth
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.
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- Kingarabian
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Re:
Kingarabian wrote:We'll see what the 12z GFS says. 12z Euro was confusing; shows no development.
12z GFS is out already. And Euro isn't as good in the Carb as it is in the EPAC.
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GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
micktooth wrote:If this system does develop and get in to the Gulf, I'm sure the media will be all over it, especially in NOLA. Next Friday 8/29 is the 9th Anniversary of Katrina and the 2nd Anniversary of Hurricane Isaac.
Any storm nearing the gulf around labor day is a huge red flag for the northern Gulf Coast. Just since 2005, Katrina, Gustav and Isaac all hit within a few days of each other.
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- gatorcane
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Re:
Hammy wrote:GFS (which has been pretty good since June with not developing phantom storms) shows a decent system going into the Gulf in about a week. Just goes to show how quickly things can change.
Indeed, within 24 hours we go from seeing "season cancel-related" posts to posts indicating maybe we have a U.S. and Caribbean islands threat on our hands.
I am seeing some turning looking at the vis floater, gradually organizing it looks like:

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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
WXman what is the pattern looking like then, will there be high pressure se coast?? will there be a weakness?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I don't see any turning but I do see the moisture fetch coming in from the south which I believe the GFS 700MB RH maps have been showing.
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Isn't there a Kelvin wave in the area I heard some talk on the forms yesterday about a Kelvin wave coming in to the Atlantic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
perk wrote:wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.
Based off guidance it looks like if the system nears the NW caribbean the GOM would be open and favorable but I would love to hear your take on this as well.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
perk wrote:wxman57 wrote:Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.
Care to share any preliminary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.
Toward the region between the western Bahamas and the NW Caribbean in 7 days is where I'd put it. "Landfall" somewhere between Texas and Bermuda, though it does look like it could move into the south-central to SE Gulf in a week, particularly if it does not develop in the next 3-5 days.
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