ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Well, it finally looks like something could be brewing after an early season dominated by SAL/dry air. Some decent model support and certainly more convection associated with 96 than any of the previous waves. Will be interesting to see if/when 96 comes together - then we can get better model initialization to see where it might be headed. Right on target for mid-August start to the "real" season I guess. LOL

[chaser1]

Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.

Care to share any prelimenary thoughts on where 96L may be headed.

Based off guidance it looks like if the system nears the NW caribbean the GOM would be open and favorable but I would love to hear your take on this as well.

Boy, so much of the "where" this thing might go hinges on "where" and when it ultimately develops. I'm not convinced there is yet a clear cut COC, and in fact a case could possibly be made for one further west around 9N and 50W. Ultimately, the timing for a system to get organized as well as whether a storm forms a bit farther east/west or a bit further south vs. north, might play a significant role on how it may be steered by the E. U.S. coast trough that both GFS and EURO are depicting to be fairly strong at 144 hour (though I don't buy it). Model accuracy can all be thrown out the window until we have a legitimate system. Still appears to be a fairly complex and dynamic ITC disturbance with multiple vorticities.

[deltadog03]

Definitely a potential storm in the making, but I would say best development chances come in the 5-7 day time frame when it reaches the NW Caribbean area. Conditions east of the Caribbean and in the Caribbean are only marginally favorable for any development.

I usually bash the GFS when it starts showing TC development when the EURO doesn't have it per say, but I noticed the 12z GFS today and it could be on to something with that. EURO does have lowering pressures in the means there, so its trying to sniff something. IF** anything developed and moved into the "slot" here it will come into the GOM and would prolly favor a central or eastern GOM threat.

[wxman57]

Of course there is currently no circulation center (chaser1). It's a disturbance, an area of enhanced thunderstorm activity. No one has said there was a developing circulation. And just because something isn't already a TC doesn't mean the models are useless at predicting the weather pattern in advance of it. It's the large scale pattern in advance of the disturbance that will determine its track.

[deltadog03]

oh, and 1 more thing, if it can get its act together and moving into the "slot", that water is untouched and in phase 1 of the MJO....It could be a strong system. Things to watch for sure.

[Kingarabian]

So the later it develops the more likely it finds itself in the GOM?

[deltadog03]

So the later it develops the more likely it finds itself in the GOM?

I would say yes and no. More yes because its not real strong in the beginning. The pattern is going to favor the Carib and GOM and FL over the next few weeks it seems. My guess is, that this is the BEST shot for the season to get something in these areas.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

If you're not keen on strong storms, your best bet is to wish that this runs into the Greater Antilles and dies. Otherwise, the forecast upper-air pattern once this passes the central Caribbean looks quite favorable; couple that with this...



...and we could have an issue.

But that's several days out and subject to change. We need to see how this interacts with the disturbance to its east and wind shear imparted by the upper-level low northeast of Puerto Rico for the next few days. Organization will be slow due to its monsoonal nature.

[Sanibel]

Looks like a southern inflow into the disturbance on Floater. Depending on what the Caribbean does to it, looks like go time.

[cycloneye]

Video about 96L by Levi Cowan.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Weatherboy1]

Just FYI, here is some text from the Miami NWS office. If a backdoor front does push SW toward Florida in a week ... around the same time something is approaching from the SE ... it could create a weakness for that "something" to turn into, no? We're a week out here, so a lot could change. But definitely worth watching (in my non-professional opinion, as always!) ...

Text follows:

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

[Blown Away]

Tracks of storms during Aug/Sept near 96L's current position...

[Weatherboy1]

Day 7 HPC map shows a low skirting the northern coast of Cuba, though again, this is highly speculative at this point:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter

[Blown Away]

Day 7 HPC map shows a low skirting the northern coast of Cuba, though again, this is highly speculative at this point:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_c ... fcolor=ter

I follow the 7 day and they are pretty good 7 days out, +/- a few hundred miles...

[NDG]

I think 96L is already starting to see the benefits of the MJO being in phase 1, just a couple of days ago if not just 24-36 hours ago it was struggling fighting subsidence and dry air.

[KBBOCA]

Dr. Jeff Masters now has a post about 96L at Wunderground:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2766

He calls it a threat to develop.



------
I'm an amateur. Do not rely on anything I've posted for official information.

[canes04]

Taking shape nicely. For sure one to watch!

[galaxy401]

ITCZ is certainly more prime. Let's see if it can survive the next few days or not.

[KBBOCA]

Video about 96L by Levi Cowan.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... this-week/

Thanks cycloneye. Levi's videos are so helpful. I learn a ton every time I watch. This is a good one...

[Nimbus]

The center of the storm relative circulation is still down near the ITCZ at 50w so I agree with about everybody. I'm surprised no one considered a Central America solution like 2004 Earl though? High heat values in the western Carib?