What are the chances

[Stephanie]

that the ridge will breakdown and Isabel will miss the EC entirely?

We've seen the models slowly move the forecasted landfall up the coast to the MidAtlantic, though during their fluctuations they've made their way to the MidAtlantic on several occassions (ala GFS).

[Derek Ortt]

slim at this point. The thanks goes to that blasted ridge over NE

[Stephanie]

From what you and the rest of our forecasters here have stated, I figured that was the answer, but I thought that it was a question that needed to be asked.

[JetMaxx]

Stephanie, I wish I had good news, but it's now a 99% certainly this hurricane will make landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach, SC and Long Island, NY

For it not to make landfall on the U.S. coast, the 120 hour position of Isabel (over central PA) would have to be off by 410 miles (the distance from 41.0N/ 77.5W to Nantucket Island) -- and that's not going to occur.

The best hope for coastal residents is that something happens to drastically weaken Isabel to a TS or cat-1 hurricane....and I just don't see it happening.

[Deenac813]

but it's now a 99% certainly this hurricane will make landfall somewhere between Myrtle Beach, SC and Long Island, NY

Wow.. 99% that is really scary

[Scott_inVA]

that the ridge will breakdown and Isabel will miss the EC entirely?

We've seen the models slowly move the forecasted landfall up the coast to the MidAtlantic, though during their fluctuations they've made their way to the MidAtlantic on several occassions (ala GFS).

Synopticly, it is now very slim. The Canadien (CMC on WREL's map) *poofs* the Ridge. IMO, that is not going to happen.

Wrightsville Beach...possibly Myrtle is Izzy never slows and it is a mega Ridge, up to Atlantic City, NJ.

Scott

[Stephanie]

that the ridge will breakdown and Isabel will miss the EC entirely?

We've seen the models slowly move the forecasted landfall up the coast to the MidAtlantic, though during their fluctuations they've made their way to the MidAtlantic on several occassions (ala GFS).

Synopticly, it is now very slim. The Canadien (CMC on WREL's map) *poofs* the Ridge. IMO, that is not going to happen.

Wrightsville Beach...possibly Myrtle is Izzy never slows and it is a mega Ridge, up to Atlantic City, NJ.
Scott

Does anyone need a Financial Analyst??? :o

[nckatie]

Wrightsville Beach...possibly Myrtle is Izzy never slows and it is a mega Ridge, up to Atlantic City, NJ.

So if this were the case, how far inland would NC feel severe hurricane effects? I'm about 100 m. NW of Wilmington. Would this be similar to Hurricane Fran? Any speculations?

Katie - meterologically ignorant.

[Scott_inVA]

Wrightsville Beach...possibly Myrtle is Izzy never slows and it is a mega Ridge, up to Atlantic City, NJ.

So if this were the case, how far inland would NC feel severe hurricane effects? I'm about 100 m. NW of Wilmington. Would this be similar to Hurricane Fran? Any speculations?

Katie - meterologically ignorant.

Depends on strength and forward speed at landfall.
If she's hauling, hurricane winds ~50 miles inland at landfall. TS gusts ~100 miles. Just a SWAG right now...but that should be close.

If she comes in as a 4 and accelerates to say 30MPH...you don't want to know.

Scott

[NC George]

Well, Floyd caused flooding all over the eastern part of the State, Fran caused damage as far as north of Raleigh/Durham in the central portion of NC, and Hugo caused damage through Charlotte and as far west as the mountians. So basically, no where in NC is absolutely safe, a strong hurricane (if this one weakens, which they have been predicting for the past 3 days and it's only dropped 10 mph max overnight on one night, 5 last night, I still think this storm will be at least a strong CAT 2 or even a CAT 3 when it eventually strikes) can affect almost any portion of the state.

[paradoxsixnine]

I'm about 60 miles north of Charlotte, and I remember Hugo and Andrew (I think it was Andrew) very well....

**sigh**

I also have 2 English papers due tomorrow and this week and trying to complete them in my self-given time frame (procrastination) AND keep up with Isabel/this message board is very trying....