ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[blp]

http://i58.tinypic.com/bxuyq.jpg
00z...

http://i59.tinypic.com/24driae.jpg
00z... Seems like Hispaniola is always in play...

http://i57.tinypic.com/30jp8aq.jpg
18z...

Just imagine if the Greater Antilles(esp. Hispanola) were not there!

Just think of all the storms that could have been MUCH worse for the U.S. or any landmass in it's path.

Well it could miss Hispanola to the north as some of the ensembles are showing.

I expect a bit of a northerly shift with the 00z GFS due to the 18z ensembles. It could run through the Florida Straits or the Keys on the next run if you average out the ensembles.


96hr


120hr


168hr

[blp]

Here is a new model in the mix. It seems like there are several popping up lately. It is the NASA GAMO GOES 5 model. It picks up on a more northerly vort and develops a higher latitude wave that goes on a more northerly route. It was a 12z run so it is old.

Link to Model: (pick Tropical Atlantic)
http://portal.nccs.nasa.gov/cgi-fp/fp_wx.cgi

[meriland23]

I have a hard time believing this will be anything significant at all IF it passes over the mountainous Hispaniola.

[PTrackerLA]

Through 72 hrs on 00z GFS it's a tad slower than 18z and weaker but basically on the same track south of PR.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS seems to have almost dropped it.

[PTrackerLA]

108 hrs MUCH weaker. Starting to remind me of the 12z Euro...

[meriland23]

GFS is keeping this weak, almost a wave all the way up to 130 hrs so far.

[TheStormExpert]

Seems to be finally coming closer to reality. Conditions probably won't be favorable.

[meriland23]

Until (if) it gets into the warmer waters of the gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Until (if) it gets into the warmer waters of the gulf.

Waters in the Caribbean are beyond warm enough.

[PTrackerLA]

180 hours into Gulf and maybe starting to become more organized...

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah at 192 hours it's in the Gulf as a weak TS. Quickly strengthening in the NW Gulf at 240 hours. Looks like it makes landfall in Houston as a cane in 276 hours.

[blp]

So far I see it does not close off before it interacts with Hispaniola like it did on 18z. Then land really disrupts it. Evolution is very slow. Not that unrealistic with gyre setup. Later on gets new life in gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yeah at 192 hours it's in the Gulf as a weak TS. Quickly strengthening in the NW Gulf at 240 hours.

More like barely a weak TD.

[Jevo]

:uarrow: Until (if) it gets into the warmer waters of the gulf.

Waters in the Caribbean are beyond warm enough.

[blp]

:uarrow: Seems to be finally coming closer to reality. Conditions probably won't be favorable.

What conditions are you referring to? The gyre just takes longer to evolve on this run and land impedes the process. This is also one run. You need to look at several runs.

[TheStormExpert]

00z GFS has it heading towards S. Texas as a weak/moderate TS.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Seems to be finally coming closer to reality. Conditions probably won't be favorable.

What conditions are you referring to? The gyre just takes longer to evolve on this run. This is also one run. You need to look at several runs.

Shear doesn't look bad, just thought there could be other factors influencing it like possible dry air?

[meriland23]

18Z GFS 192 hrs



00z GFS 216 hrs

[Steve]

Interesting Ptracker. Some people believe that 2002 is a hard analog. Almost looking like an Isidore track (super fun storm here as was Lili also 2002). Thinking the rest of the run would suggest a landfall farther west rather than getting caught up with the N Yucatan and spinning off north. This run should be farther west toward Texas. 990 at that resolution could be pretty strong. System is slower to strengthen in this run