I would post another forecast....but there's no need

[JetMaxx]

The reason I won't be posting anymore forecasts on hurricane Isabel? The NHC and I are coming up with almost identical tracks.....less than 40 miles apart at landfall in 4 days.

My only difference in opinion with the 11 a.m. forecast is I personally believe an estimate of 125 mph (110 kts) at landfall on the North Carolina outer banks is too conservative. I feel it will be at least 135-140 mph....possibly even 145-150 mph....a record intensity hurricane for both North Carolina and Virginia (and by far the most intense hurricane of record for Maryland and possibly Delaware....I believe Isabel will remain a major hurricane as far north as the middle portion of Chesapeake Bay and Maryland coast...and possibly even the Baltimore-Washington DC and coastal Delaware areas).

My advice for everyone living along the U.S. east coast north of central South Carolina; especially those living between North Carolina and Long Island): listen closely to the NHC forecasts....when hurricane warnings are issued and evacuations ordered....EVACUATE as quickly as possible in an orderly fashion. I firmly believe Isabel will produce storm surge flooding in places it has never occurred before...at least not in any of our lifetimes. Remember, 90% of those who lose their lives in major hurricanes....die by drowning.

A major hurricane track just west of Cape Hatteras, Virginia Beach and Chesapeake Bay will likely cause devastating storm surge and tidal flooding...worse than any of us have ever seen....and it's still NOT out of the question this monster hurricane could pass east of Cape Hatteras and Virginia Beach and slam into New Jersey on a path that would devastate the Jersey shore, New York City, and Long Island....why EVERYONE farther north should monitor the latest from NHC closely.

Isabel is a very large hurricane, and will likely grow larger as she approaches the U.S. east coast...with hurricane force winds extending well over 100 miles east of the center. Combined with a strong high pressure east and ENE of the hurricane....the pressure gradient could cause wind gusts of 60-80 mph or more even along the south facing beaches of New England IMO..along with coastal flooding. Strong winds (30-50 mph) are likely even in interior New England..

Please stay safe...

[Steve Cosby]

Isabel is a very large hurricane, and will likely grow larger as she approaches the U.S. east coast...with hurricane force winds extending well over 100 miles east of the center. Combined with a strong high pressure east and ENE of the hurricane....the pressure gradient could cause wind gusts of 60-80 mph or more even along the south facing beaches of New England IMO..along with coastal flooding. Strong winds (30-50 mph) are likely even in interior New England..

Please stay safe...

First, second on the "Please stay safe...".

After the annular hurricane thread came up, I fired off a "what do you think of this?" message to Joe Bastardi. His response came this morning: "it will expand and be weaker, simply because of the pattern".

I think it is clear that it will be weaker for a number of reasons but the expansion comment falls right in line with what you are saying Perry.

[JetMaxx]

While I don't believe Isabel will be a 155 mph hurricane at landfall on the North Carolina outer banks....a cat-4 is possible.

Hurricane Hazel was a 135-140 mph cat-4 in mid-October 1954 in the Wilmington-Myrtle Beach area. On September 21, 1938...the infamous "Long Island express" passed just east of Cape Hatteras with 140 mph sustained winds....and Isabel is the exact same type of hurricane as both Hazel and the 1938 were....large and intense.

One added factor favoring a strong cat-3 or cat-4 hurricane at landfall: unlike 1996 and 1999 when hurricanes (Bertha & Dennis) took energy from the Gulf Stream offshore...which left less heat potential available for Fran and Floyd -- there have been no hurricanes across the Gulf Stream offshore North Carolina this year (only a weakening TD Henri).

I expect the same energy "boost" for Isabel as it crosses the Gulf Stream as Hugo in 1989 and Emily in 1993 both recieved...and at least a 130 mph hurricane at Cape Hatteras and Ocrakoke...and probably 135-140.

[HurricaneQueen]

I hate to admit this but I vividly remember Hazel as a child. We were living in Pa. right near the Delaware River. The river came up on the PA side so high that all you could see along the river road were chimneys. The main bridge between our town and Trenton NJ was washed out and we were living in a ghost town. Most of the small businesses went under since the NJ people couldn't get across. There were typhoid scares and boil water advisories (at least we had water) and we weren't allowed outside for what seemed like forever. I don't really remember the winds or if we lost electricity but that was my first experince with a cane.

The NE is so ill prepared for something of this magnitude, that it really scares me. I still have a lot of family up there and my first reaction is to call and warn them but I don't worry anyone needlessly until it becomes apparent where Isabel will go. Hopefully, they are paying attention to their local weather advisories but never having gone through something like this, I feel a lot of people will be caught with their guard down.

I pray for all of you who may be affected.
Lynn