Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
518 AM AST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...
BUT NONE OVER LAND AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...AS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS
OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN RESPONSE TO RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW. HOWEVER...
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS TUTT MOVES FURTHER WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT CHANCES OF RAIN
TO INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. POSSIBLE -TSRA/SHRA OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR AFTER
18/16Z MAY MAINLY TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS BETWEEN
18/13Z AND 18/22Z...WINDS DECREASING THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS
UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 89 79 / 10 20 20 30
STT 89 79 90 79 / 10 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INTERIOR SECTIONS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THE LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. A TUTT LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION WILL MOVE
WEST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO BOTH
DAYS.

AS WE GET INTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION PEAK SEASON...WE ARE
MONITORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 DIFFERENT TROPICAL FEATURES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT THESE SYSTEMS THE
SHOULD VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. POSSIBLE ISOLD -TSRA/SHRA OVER WESTERN INTERIOR PR
AFTER 18/16Z MAY MAINLY TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. NEAR SFC WINDS
WILL BE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
BETWEEN 18/13Z AND 18/22Z...WINDS DECREASING THEREAFTER. WINDS 3-15
KFT ENE 15 TO 25 KT.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEAS
UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 18 KNOTS THRU AT LEAST MIDWEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
948 PM AST MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXPECTED TO BUILD WED THRU THU. WEAK AND ELONGATED LOW PRES OVR
THE CNTRL ATLC EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIB FRI AND SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...S/W TROUGH ROTATING SWD ON BACKSIDE OF TUTT LOW
WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND T-STORMS SOME POSSIBLY STRONG LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE. MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED WED WILL GREATLY
SUPPRESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WED AND WED NIGHT.

DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED FASTER AND
WEAKER WITH ELONGATED LOW PRES OVER THE CNTRL ATLC. WHILE TC
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES WWD OR WNWD
ACROSS THE ATLC AND ERN CARIB SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. USING
ECMWF...GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBALISITIC GUIDANCE AND NHC/WPC GUIDANCE
WOULD EXPECT FOR A WEAK LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA
FRI-FRI NIGHT. GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
PR THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVIER THAN WHAT WE SAW WITH
BERTHA AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING SLOWER THAN BERTHA DID. THERE
IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT THE RAINS COULD STAY SOUTH OF PR AS
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BUT USING AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN APPROACH WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF 20 SOLUTIONS WITH A
DIFFERENT SET OF INITIAL CONDITIONS WOULD PUT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OVER PR. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE TODAY WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING AND TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AND
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED WETTER FOR PR BUT WITH AN EARLIER
ONSET OF HEAVY RAINS NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS AROUND TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. AFTER 19/16Z...ISOLD
-TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR AFFECTING
MAINLY TJMZ WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. THE 19/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED ENE WINDS AT 6-18 KTS FM THE SFC TO AROUND 2 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SOLID
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE PUT IN SOLID 20-25 KT IN WIND GRIDS
AND WILL RAISE SEAS 5-7 WITH NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 90 / 20 20 30 30
STT 79 90 79 90 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
458 AM AST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE EAST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...AS TUTT LOW...NOW LOCATED EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...
CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS. LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 80S
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS.

AS TUTT LOW MOVES FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE DAY...INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE FOR PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA AND SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO
IN THE AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY...DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF AFOREMENTIONED
TUTT AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME EAST SOUTHEAST...THESE SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THEN FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTION OF THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.
SOME REDUCTION IN AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED.

A WETTER/ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THRU AT
LEAST SATURDAY AS A WEAK AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. BASED ON NHC GUIDANCE...THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS DEVELOPMENT...THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 19/16Z...ISOLD TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...POSSIBLY AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJPS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT 10-15 KTS FROM 19/13Z
TO 19/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
AND SEAS INCREASING RAPIDLY THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH
SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 40 30 30 20
STT 90 79 90 80 / 40 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some slow development of this system is possible later
this week as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing some disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is
possible over the next several days while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
309 PM AST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED EAST
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS...WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT GRADUALLY BUILDING AND SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A
BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE IS SO FAR FORECAST TO REACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY THURSDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS AND AFFECT THE EAST
AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW JUST EAST OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ALSO
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR PUERTO RICO...MOST OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
ISLAND....WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECTED
A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND CLOUDINESS OVER
LAND DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ON WEDNESDAY... SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS
FURTHER WEST BUT REMAIN WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION TO MAINTAIN
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT.

THE BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL
WAVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARDS AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY.
IT IS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AND AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...A MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. LATEST GFS MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST PWAT VALUES TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
BY SATURDAY WHICH SO FAR SEEMS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER DAY
ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT OR NOT...THIS
FEATURE COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL REGION BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND SEE HOW THINGS
UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. AFTER 20/16Z...ISOLD TSRA IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJPS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. SFC WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT ABOUT
10-15 KTS UNTIL 19/22Z DIMINISHING AFTER THAT.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING RAPIDLY BY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SO FAR EXPECTED DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 91 / 30 30 30 30
STT 78 89 79 91 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with an elongated area of low pressure that extends from
the northeastern coast of South America into the central tropical
Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for gradual development of this system during the next few days as
it approaches the Lesser Antilles and moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A tropical wave located about midway between the west coast of
Africa and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Some slow development of this system is possible
over the next several days while it moves toward the west-northwest
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1021 PM AST TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW PRES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE ERN CARIB SEA LATE THU NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CARIB SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...POPCORN SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH MID-LEVEL DRYING EXPECTED WED WITH AREAL CVRG OF
SHOWERS DIMINISHING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
AND LOW PRES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THU WITH SHOWER CVRG
INCREASING. WX CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY BEGINNING
THU NIGHT WITH WINDS AND SQUALLS INCREASING. TROPICAL CYCLONE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO TROPICAL WX
OTLKS FROM NHC. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BETWEEN
20/16-21Z...TSRA/SHRA IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PR...AFFECTING AREAS IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS. THE 20/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
E-NE WINDS AT 6-26 KTS FM THE SFC TO AROUND 6 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 15KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING
THU AFTERNOON WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. RAISED WINDS 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING
THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 91 / 40 40 30 30
STT 78 89 79 91 / 40 40 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
550 AM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
RETROGRESSING TODAY UNTIL IT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AS THE
SURFACE LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WAVE STARTS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...THE USVI...AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE THAT WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND THE TUTT LOW WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR THIS
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE YOU CAN EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING
LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.2 INCHES LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

AT THIS TIME THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH STILL EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT
PR AND USVI TERMINALS. AFT 20/16 TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR/WESTERN OF PR MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS AND
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT JMZ AND JBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM THE E AT
5-20 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-21KT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS STRENGTHENING THU
AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW PRESSURE THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS 6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 40 30 40 50
STT 89 79 90 80 / 40 30 40 50

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N53W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO INJECT ENERGY INTO THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS WITH MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS W-NW TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE
CARIBBEAN BY FRIDAY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 06N-12N BETWEEN 51W-57W.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles east
of the southern Windward Islands. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
into the Caribbean Sea. Interests in the Lesser Antilles and
the northeastern Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur during the next day or two while it moves toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. After that time, development of
this system is not anticipated as it begins to interact with the
disturbance located to its west.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters discussion.


96L Slowly Organizing on its Way to the Lesser Antilles



By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 10:14 AM AST on August 20, 2014



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A tropical wave (96L) located near 11°N 53°W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed the wave had a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was steadily increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Decent upper-level outflow channels were present on the storm's west and south sides. The storm was poorly organized, though, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands. An 8:57 pm EDT Tuesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph in a clump of thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the east of center of 96L. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that while the wave has plenty of dry air to its north to contend with, it has managed to moisten its environment considerably since Monday. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 28°C, which favors development. The outermost thunderstorms of 96L had appeared on Barbados radar by Wednesday morning.


Forecast for 96L
The wave should continue to organize over the next two days, and pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds--particularly to the southern islands in the chain. The wave will then track west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting development into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico. All three models show that on Saturday, 96L will pass over or just south of the island of Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean--a disorganized system that struggles against dry air. The most likely day for development into a tropical depression is Friday, when the storm will be south of Puerto Rico.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands has become a little better organized during the past few
hours. Additional slow development of this system is possible during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression could form as the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser
Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that time, land
interaction could limit development potential over the weekend.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday. Interests
in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W...AND FROM 10N TO 12N
BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG ALSO IS FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN
THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS
FEATURE. THE CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

SYNOPSIS...
TUTT LOW NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SLOPES TODAY. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS HAD FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN JAYUYA AND MAYAGUEZ. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.DISCUSSION...
TUTT LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE RETROGRADING
ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...THEN REACHING THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA.

THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUE ON THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BRING WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. GFS MODEL HAS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES STARTING LATE THURSDAY...BUT INCREASING
EVEN MORE TO OVER 2.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR TSRAS VCNTY JBQ/JMZ THRU 21/00Z...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. ERLY SFC/LOW
LEVEL WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 21/00Z...BCMG 5-10KTS AFT 21/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND BREEZE THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS
FRESHENING THU AFTERNOON AS A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. WINDS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS
6-8 FT DURING THIS PERIOD THU THRU SAT AS THE WAVE PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 77 86 / 40 60 60 90
STT 79 90 79 89 / 40 50 60 90

[cycloneye]

50%-70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is slowly becoming better organized. Additional development
is possible during the next day or two, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean Sea. After that
time, land interaction could limit development potential over the
weekend. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and
heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands on Thursday night and Friday.
Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of
this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the low tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N53W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 51W-58W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS FEATURE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE IT
WILL BE MOVING WESTWARD-NORTHWESTWARD 10-15 KNOTS...ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE. THE
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1133 PM AST WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS MOVED OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING PARTS OF THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF SOME OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE TUTT
LOW NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...CONTINUED OVER PARTS OF THE MONA PASSAGE
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD. DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
EXPECT PASSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY PARTS OF
THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ISLANDS. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
THURSDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS AND MOVES WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
THE INHERITED LONG TERM FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME... HOWEVER
DID MODIFY AND ADJUST THE SHORT TERM BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE AND PRESENT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

AS FAR AS THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED INCREASED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FORMING JUST NORTH
AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE. BASED ON LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF WEATHER THIS FEATURE
BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...ALL INDICATIONS AT THIS TIME
SUGGEST MEDIUM TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS SQUALLS
AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING AS SOON AS THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.
ALL LOCAL INTEREST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 21/12Z VCTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD AROUND TKPK/TNCM. THEN...AFTER 21/16Z TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE INTERIOR/WESTERN PR WILL RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS WITH
MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS AT TJMZ AND TJPS. THE 21/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING
INDICATED EAST WINDS FM SFC TO AROUND 5 KFT AT 5-19 KTS...BCMG E-NE
AT 10-20 KTS AFTER 21/12Z.

&&

.MARINE UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL AT 5 FEET OR LESS AND 17 KNOTS
OR LESS RESPECTIVELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED...GRADUALLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ON THURSDAY WITH
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND OTHER MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGES ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands have changed little in organization during the past
several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a
tropical depression could form while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Lesser Antilles and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea. The mountainous terrain of
Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could limit development during the first
part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to be conducive for
development early next week when the system is forecast to move near
or over the Bahamas.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy
rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto
Rico, and the Virgin Islands tonight and Friday, and over Hispaniola
late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands should closely
monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low this
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown