ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ronjon]

Possible storm analogs from where 96L is forming:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/CHARLEY/track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004/IVAN/track.gif

[Alyono]

seeing something near 12N and 51W

[underthwx]

Wxman57...can you weigh in on where this may likely go...and what forces are in play to guide it?

[SFLcane]

one more..

[chaser1]

I see a lot of convection. Where do you all think the center of circulation is trying to establish itself?

If I were forced to try and pick a point where a COC might be forming, I'd likely go with somewhere close to 12N & 52W (give or take a degree)

The more and more I look at it.... its giving me vertigo - LOL. But seriously, I'm definitely seeing the two "blobs" congealing and am thinking that slightly stretched and elongated center may be forming (WSW to ENE) between 11.5N/53.0 & 12.0N & 52.0. One thing for sure, I'm really getting the impression that once these two area's of convection do congeal, that this system is looking like it could ramp up to a depression fairly quickly. I could see the possibility of a depression forming in 18-24hr. I imagine that NHC is considering the need to issue a special tropical disturbance update for the Windwards & Southern Leewards, if for no other reason than strong gusty winds, rough seas and periods of heavy downpours. My guess is that the tropical ridge ridge to it's north is temporarily building west with the developing system. My guess for now is that this will not track east of, or over the bulk of Hispanola.

[gatorcane]

Saved imaged - still elongated but convection continues to fire and it looks to be gradually organizing. 12N, 51W does look suspicious...

[SFLcane]

Convection has been on the increase steadily all morning.

['CaneFreak]

Strongly agree. I see a swirl there and low level clouds that appear to be rotating.

seeing something near 12N and 51W

[HeeBGBz]

It kind of looks like its trying to rotate around 53° and 10°. Just my untrained eyeball opinion.

[cycloneye]

NHC may have to raise the % for 5 days at 2 PM.

[SouthDadeFish]

seeing something near 12N and 51W

Strongly agree. Looks pretty good this morning.

[AdamFirst]

Snippet from NWS Miami discussion from early this morning

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

[chaser1]

NHC may have to raise the % for 5 days at 2 PM.

Yeah, and I'm thinking that they'll go 50%/70%. Given overall conditions and model support, that would even seem conservative

[tolakram]

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-52&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=14

[meriland23]

Does anyone have a site that provides the ECMWF model?

[tolakram]

Does anyone have a site that provides the ECMWF model?

This is the best free site for the Euro that updates quickly once the run starts:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

[meriland23]

Does anyone have a site that provides the ECMWF model?

This is the best free site for the Euro that updates quickly once the run starts:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/

Thanks

[NDG]

I will say this. The troughs this season so far have been anomulously strong and very frequent across the Eastern U.S. and Western Atlantic. That has been the trend all season long. Now, another trough is coming down south off the U.S. East Coast by early next week. If the trend continues and the trough remains anomulously strong and erodes the ridge early next week, 96L , if it strengthens, will be influenced by the weakness.

______________-

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree about the trough pattern being persistent across the eastern US, but this time the trough is forecasted to drop down off the NE US and become somewhat cut off as heights rise across SE Canada and the Atlantic ridge holds on to some real state. In the meantime there will be a narrow ridge bridging across the Atlantic into the FL Peninsula into the southern US that may keep 96L from recurving out to sea.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

Potential for a Storm in Atlantic Basin

August 20, 2014; 11:52 AM

While the Atlantic Hurricane has ben quiet since June, there is potential for a storm next week. Bernie Rayno has the details.


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-v ... 0659509001

[Gustywind]

Very interresting discussion from Dr Jeff Masters...


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2767

96L Slowly Organizing on its Way to the Lesser Antilles

A tropical wave (96L) located near 11°N 53°W, several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, is headed west-northwestwards at about 10 - 15 mph. Satellite loops on Wednesday morning showed the wave had a broad, elongated surface circulation and a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was steadily increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Decent upper-level outflow channels were present on the storm's west and south sides. The storm was poorly organized, though, with a clumpy appearance and just a few small low-level spiral bands. An 8:57 pm EDT Tuesday pass from the ASCAT satellite showed top surface winds near 35 mph in a clump of thunderstorms a few hundred miles to the east of center of 96L. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that while the wave has plenty of dry air to its north to contend with, it has managed to moisten its environment considerably since Monday. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near 28°C, which favors development. The outermost thunderstorms of 96L had appeared on Barbados radar by Wednesday morning.

Forecast for 96L
The wave should continue to organize over the next two days, and pass through the Lesser Antilles Islands Thursday night and Friday morning, bringing heavy rain showers and strong winds--particularly to the southern islands in the chain. The wave will then track west-northwest through the Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. The 0Z Wednesday runs of our three most reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, had one model, the UKMET, predicting development into a tropical depression south of Puerto Rico. All three models show that on Saturday, 96L will pass over or just south of the island of Hispaniola, whose rugged terrain would likely disrupt the storm. The 8 am EDT Wednesday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. With dry air expected to be in the Caribbean, the moderate levels of wind shear would likely be able to drive the dry air into the circulation of 96L, keeping any development slow. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 30% and 50%, respectively. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the disturbance on Thursday afternoon, if necessary. If 96L does develop, it would likely be similar to Tropical Storm Bertha of early August while in the Caribbean--a disorganized system that struggles against dry air. The most likely day for development into a tropical depression is Friday, when the storm will be south of Puerto Rico.

A second disturbance near 14°N, 46°W, about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has a small area of disorganized heavy thunderstorms with some modest rotation. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this disturbance 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10% and 10%, respectively. None of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predict that this disturbance will develop over the next five days as it heads west-northwest at about 10 mph.