ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[HURRICANELONNY]

TX/LA border yesterday, Miami today, where will it be tomorrow?????

Time to play............

http://sacredfools.org/darknights/12/wh ... -300px.jpg

lol. thats why you don't talk about model runs until there is a name.it's like watching sat. morning cartoons

[tropicwatch]

[South Texas Storms]

12z CMC has it moving just north of Puerto Rico as a tropical storm and then strengthens it into a strong hurricane east of the Bahamas early next week while moving north between NC and Bermuda.

[StarmanHDB]

12z GFS +144



12z GFS +150

AWWWWW! There may be a bullseye over my house next Wednesday or Thursday! How pleasant!

[cycloneye]

Here is GEM moving thru PR as a strong TS.

[Weatherboy1]

Well, this latest GFS run is sure to raise a few eyebrows amid the local media. But it is just one model run and we are talking about a system that doesn't even technically exist. Oh, and this model run is talking about next Tuesday - six days out. So we have some time to watch, time to see the forecasts refined, and time to see if this really does turn out to be a threat. Certainly worth watching closely, though, given that most models are latching on and developing something at some point out of 96.

Just my opinion, as always. Listen to the professionals and all that jazz

[Jevo]

12z GEM (Canadian) weakens the ridge and turns 96L out to sea

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[blp]

Anbody got the Ukmet? I am waiting on the Ukmet, it does not swing as much like the others from run to run. The 00z run seemed very resonable and takes it right down the middle of the models very similar to the TVCN.

[cycloneye]

Anbody got the Ukmet? I am waiting on the Ukmet, it does not swing as much like the others from run to run. The 00z run seemed very resonable and takes it right down the middle of the models very similar to the TVCN.

It comes out at 2 PM.

[cycloneye]

TS over PR on HWRF.

[South Texas Storms]

12z HWRF then shows this becoming a strong TS just north of central Cuba in 120 hours.

[jlauderdal]

Well, this latest GFS run is sure to raise a few eyebrows amid the local media. But it is just one model run and we are talking about a system that doesn't even technically exist. Oh, and this model run is talking about next Tuesday - six days out. So we have some time to watch, time to see the forecasts refined, and time to see if this really does turn out to be a threat. Certainly worth watching closely, though, given that most models are latching on and developing something at some point out of 96.

Just my opinion, as always. Listen to the professionals and all that jazz

GFS always seems to find florida at some point

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS +144



12z GFS +150

AWWWWW! There may be a bullseye over my house next Wednesday or Thursday! How pleasant!

good news is over the last ten years that graphic you are seeing has been repeated more then a few times..how many times have we been hit?

[NDG]

12z HWRF has it as it hurrice SE of Miami at the end of its run.

Code: Select all

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
 
NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    96L
 
INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG 20
 
FORECAST POSITIONS
 
HOUR     LATITUDE    LONGITUDE    MIN PRESS (hPa)     MAX SFC WIND (KTS)
 
HOUR:   0.0  LONG:  -52.70  LAT:  11.20  MIN PRES (hPa): 1009.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  25.00
HOUR:   1.0  LONG:  -52.90  LAT:  11.20  MIN PRES (hPa): 1010.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  24.00
HOUR:   2.0  LONG:  -52.90  LAT:  11.30  MIN PRES (hPa): 1011.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  23.00
HOUR:   3.0  LONG:  -53.00  LAT:  11.40  MIN PRES (hPa): 1012.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  24.00
HOUR:   4.0  LONG:  -53.10  LAT:  11.40  MIN PRES (hPa): 1011.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  27.00
HOUR:   5.0  LONG:  -53.20  LAT:  11.60  MIN PRES (hPa): 1010.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  32.00
HOUR:   6.0  LONG:  -53.30  LAT:  11.60  MIN PRES (hPa): 1009.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  28.00
HOUR:   7.0  LONG:  -53.60  LAT:  11.70  MIN PRES (hPa): 1009.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  29.00
HOUR:   8.0  LONG:  -53.50  LAT:  11.80  MIN PRES (hPa): 1010.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  30.00
HOUR:   9.0  LONG:  -53.80  LAT:  11.80  MIN PRES (hPa): 1010.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  29.00
HOUR:  12.0  LONG:  -54.30  LAT:  11.90  MIN PRES (hPa): 1011.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  28.00
HOUR:  15.0  LONG:  -54.70  LAT:  12.20  MIN PRES (hPa): 1011.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  31.00
HOUR:  18.0  LONG:  -54.90  LAT:  12.80  MIN PRES (hPa): 1009.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  33.00
HOUR:  21.0  LONG:  -55.30  LAT:  13.40  MIN PRES (hPa): 1009.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  31.00
HOUR:  24.0  LONG:  -55.80  LAT:  13.70  MIN PRES (hPa): 1010.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  31.00
HOUR:  27.0  LONG:  -56.70  LAT:  14.30  MIN PRES (hPa): 1008.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  32.00
HOUR:  30.0  LONG:  -57.60  LAT:  14.60  MIN PRES (hPa): 1006.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  31.00
HOUR:  33.0  LONG:  -58.20  LAT:  15.10  MIN PRES (hPa): 1007.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  33.00
HOUR:  36.0  LONG:  -59.00  LAT:  15.50  MIN PRES (hPa): 1008.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  39.00
HOUR:  39.0  LONG:  -59.70  LAT:  16.10  MIN PRES (hPa): 1007.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  41.00
HOUR:  42.0  LONG:  -61.00  LAT:  16.60  MIN PRES (hPa): 1005.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  40.00
HOUR:  45.0  LONG:  -62.20  LAT:  16.90  MIN PRES (hPa): 1004.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  37.00
HOUR:  48.0  LONG:  -63.30  LAT:  17.30  MIN PRES (hPa): 1006.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  38.00
HOUR:  51.0  LONG:  -64.20  LAT:  17.50  MIN PRES (hPa): 1003.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  40.00
HOUR:  54.0  LONG:  -65.30  LAT:  17.70  MIN PRES (hPa): 1002.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  43.00
HOUR:  57.0  LONG:  -66.30  LAT:  18.00  MIN PRES (hPa): 1002.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  42.00
HOUR:  60.0  LONG:  -67.00  LAT:  18.30  MIN PRES (hPa): 1002.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  54.00
HOUR:  63.0  LONG:  -68.00  LAT:  18.30  MIN PRES (hPa): 1002.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  45.00
HOUR:  66.0  LONG:  -68.80  LAT:  18.30  MIN PRES (hPa):  999.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  40.00
HOUR:  69.0  LONG:  -69.20  LAT:  18.40  MIN PRES (hPa):  999.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  40.00
HOUR:  72.0  LONG:  -69.50  LAT:  18.50  MIN PRES (hPa):  999.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  39.00
HOUR:  75.0  LONG:  -69.80  LAT:  19.00  MIN PRES (hPa):  997.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  48.00
HOUR:  78.0  LONG:  -70.50  LAT:  19.50  MIN PRES (hPa):  993.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  61.00
HOUR:  81.0  LONG:  -71.10  LAT:  19.70  MIN PRES (hPa):  993.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  57.00
HOUR:  84.0  LONG:  -71.60  LAT:  20.10  MIN PRES (hPa):  994.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  61.00
HOUR:  87.0  LONG:  -72.30  LAT:  20.30  MIN PRES (hPa):  993.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  64.00
HOUR:  90.0  LONG:  -72.90  LAT:  20.50  MIN PRES (hPa):  991.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  64.00
HOUR:  93.0  LONG:  -73.40  LAT:  20.80  MIN PRES (hPa):  993.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  46.00
HOUR:  96.0  LONG:  -73.90  LAT:  20.90  MIN PRES (hPa):  996.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  52.00
HOUR:  99.0  LONG:  -74.30  LAT:  21.30  MIN PRES (hPa):  992.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  62.00
HOUR: 102.0  LONG:  -74.80  LAT:  21.50  MIN PRES (hPa):  991.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  54.00
HOUR: 105.0  LONG:  -75.10  LAT:  21.80  MIN PRES (hPa):  991.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  50.00
HOUR: 108.0  LONG:  -75.70  LAT:  22.20  MIN PRES (hPa):  990.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  58.00
HOUR: 111.0  LONG:  -76.10  LAT:  22.30  MIN PRES (hPa):  989.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  60.00
HOUR: 114.0  LONG:  -76.50  LAT:  22.60  MIN PRES (hPa):  987.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  63.00
HOUR: 117.0  LONG:  -77.10  LAT:  22.90  MIN PRES (hPa):  986.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  57.00
HOUR: 120.0  LONG:  -77.50  LAT:  23.10  MIN PRES (hPa):  986.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  66.00
HOUR: 123.0  LONG:  -77.90  LAT:  23.40  MIN PRES (hPa):  983.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  63.00
HOUR: 126.0  LONG:  -78.40  LAT:  23.70  MIN PRES (hPa):  979.00   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):  77.00
    FORECAST RAN COUPLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...
 
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[blp]

Anbody got the Ukmet? I am waiting on the Ukmet, it does not swing as much like the others from run to run. The 00z run seemed very resonable and takes it right down the middle of the models very similar to the TVCN.

It comes out at 2 PM.

Thanks do you have a link to the text output? I know the graphic takes a while.

[blp]

Here is the graphic on the HWRF:

[cycloneye]

Anbody got the Ukmet? I am waiting on the Ukmet, it does not swing as much like the others from run to run. The 00z run seemed very resonable and takes it right down the middle of the models very similar to the TVCN.

It comes out at 2 PM.

Thanks do you have a link to the text output? I know the graphic takes a while.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html

[tolakram]

Euro running, 12Z.

Not much at 24 hours.

[blp]

Anbody got the Ukmet? I am waiting on the Ukmet, it does not swing as much like the others from run to run. The 00z run seemed very resonable and takes it right down the middle of the models very similar to the TVCN.

It comes out at 2 PM.

Thanks do you have a link to the text output? I know the graphic takes a while.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... plots.html[/quote]

Thanks again

[tailgater]

Hope you still need the rain Luis.
I'm still thinking out to sea between the Carolinas and Bermuda unless the timing just goes bad. all these EC troughs and fronts we've had, then all of sudden the pattern shifts, I'll believe when I see it. Unless of corse it doesn't develop until the western Caribbean.