ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM has shifted east:

[TheStormExpert]

Does anyone get the sense that this could end up taking a similar track to Hurricane Irene(2011)?

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF similar to GFS strengthing hurricane near sfl.

[tolakram]

Still nothing much as of 48, though perhaps it's sniffing out the more northern route as well?

[tolakram]

72 hours

Green dot near Jamaica, so at this resolution I'm not sure where the wave is a this point.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 14.1N 53.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 21.08.2014 15.4N 55.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 22.08.2014 16.5N 60.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.08.2014 16.1N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 23.08.2014 16.9N 66.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2014 17.5N 69.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2014 18.8N 71.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 19.6N 74.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 25.08.2014 20.1N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 20.5N 78.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 26.08.2014 21.0N 79.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 26.08.2014 22.1N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[gatorcane]

72 hours

Green dot near Jamaica, so at this resolution I'm not sure where the wave is a this point.

Significant shift north with the Euro and much faster...looks like it has just a little NW of HAITI at 72 hours. Windfield, saved image:

[deltadog03]

if the system is going to be that weak, like 12z euro suggests...then yes, it will move that fast and get caught in the weakness and prolly go out to sea.

[tolakram]

Now it looks north.

[Alyono]

EC may be a recurve. Talk about model inconsistencuy

[NDG]

EC may be a recurve. Talk about model inconsistencuy

Yeap, taking it out sea. It has being very inconsistent with this system since the beginning, taking it into CA, the gulf coast and now out to sea, lol.

[Alyono]

EC track is too fast, however. Not sure this will move at 18 kts

[Frank2]

One of the few times I'd agree with JB - the models cannot be trusted until the system develops. Look at how they've been flip-flopping - first the trend was GOM, then WGOM, then FL, and now east of FL or the Bahamas...

[gatorcane]

Anybody have the UKMET - seems to be the most consistent so far though it only goes out 5 days...?

[tolakram]

Quick recurve

[Riptide]

Ridge rebuilding eastward, if not for the following front in the midwest, I would be calling for another Jeanne. Getting some Irene vibes.

[ronjon]

ECM has joined CMC camp now. Recurve definitely a good possiblity now. A few more model runs to confirm though.

[SapphireSea]

Weirdest Recurve on the ECM. I would expect a stall with two ridges merging I would imagine. Maybe a resolution issue with the fact it may drift about with predominant east movement before shifting back NW? Guess we have to wait till it actually becomes something.

[Jevo]

12z Euro +96

[chaser1]

In the face of Millions of $$'s spent on meteorological research and model development, and with most models trending a more northward track "over the rock" (or perhaps even east of the Hispanola) - I'm stickin' to my guns that the E.C. trough will not verify as strong, thus causing less degradation of the ridge. My money (about $7.53, LOL) is still on Jamaica or Cuba landfall.