ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Alyono]

ECM has joined CMC camp now. Recurve definitely a good possiblity now. A few more model runs to confirm though.

The EC moves this unrealistically fast. Totally disregarding this EC run

[tolakram]

144

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles 144 hours...very close to Florida with the most concentration in the Bahamas:

[SFLcane]

ECM has joined CMC camp now. Recurve definitely a good possiblity now. A few more model runs to confirm though.

Camp? We don't even have a developed storm yet. Plots arent for use with invest take with extreme caution. I've had Ernesto vibes from the start now whether we get lucky again and cuba's mountians saves us well see.

[gatorcane]

ECM has joined CMC camp now. Recurve definitely a good possiblity now. A few more model runs to confirm though.

The EC moves this unrealistically fast. Totally disregarding this EC run

Agreed, its the outlier right now as far as how fast it takes it. ECMWF has done very poorly with this wave since it's inception but once genesis happens, we should be able to use it.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro 168h

[NDG]

The main reason that the 12z Euro recurves 96L out to sea is because it breaks down the narrow ridging between the Atlantic ridge and the southern US ridge thus finding a weakness to recurve, compared to its 0z previous run which showed the narrow ridging to stay intact.
So not until it becomes consistent will I buy this run.

[tolakram]

On the last frame it did not make much eastward progress, still not much past 70W.

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962014) 20140820 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
140820 1800 140821 0600 140821 1800 140822 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 53.4W 12.5N 55.4W 13.7N 57.9W 14.8N 60.6W
BAMD 11.6N 53.4W 12.3N 56.4W 13.2N 59.5W 14.2N 62.3W
BAMM 11.6N 53.4W 12.5N 56.0W 13.7N 58.7W 14.9N 61.4W
LBAR 11.6N 53.4W 12.0N 56.0W 12.5N 59.1W 13.0N 62.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
140822 1800 140823 1800 140824 1800 140825 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 63.6W 18.5N 69.4W 20.6N 74.6W 22.0N 78.5W
BAMD 15.2N 64.7W 17.4N 68.4W 19.3N 71.0W 20.6N 73.5W
BAMM 16.2N 63.9W 18.8N 68.4W 21.6N 72.1W 24.3N 74.9W
LBAR 13.7N 65.4W 15.6N 70.2W 17.6N 73.1W 23.1N 77.9W
SHIP 59KTS 70KTS 75KTS 81KTS
DSHP 59KTS 69KTS 74KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 51.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 49.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[tolakram]

Last frame I'm posting, 192h.

[Jevo]

12z Euro Doesn't even develop it over a TS at its peak

[gatorcane]

['CaneFreak]

CPC's 6-10 & 8-14 day analogs for the upcoming pattern indicate that the recurve forecasted by the ECMWF, NAVGEM, et al. are likely incorrect.



Note the strong ridge over the northwest Atlantic and the trough over the Northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. This pattern continues into the day 8-14 range.

[blp]

Anybody have the UKMET - seems to be the most consistent so far though it only goes out 5 days...?

Over Cienfuegos Cuba 22.1N 80.7W at 120hr holding the line on the Southerly course. I agree it has been the most consistent. Very steady. It has it going over a lot of land it seems so that is why it stays weak.

[gatorcane]

New Guidance, a little more clustered though the GFS ensembles are still divergent. TVCN track into the Bahamas and follows the AEMN closely:

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF showing a large break in the ridge over the Bahamas in 144 hours:


Notice the GFS though doesn't have quite as deep of a trough at 144 hours plus look at the little swirl on the map to the E of the Bahamas which is just enough ridging to allowing the system to move more NW into Florida:

[NDG]

12Z ECMWF showing a large break in the ridge over the Bahamas in 144 hours:
http://i61.tinypic.com/14uhu0z.jpg

Notice the GFS though doesn't have quite as deep of a trough at 144 hours plus look at the little swirl on the map to the E of the Bahamas which is just enough ridging to allowing the system to move more NW into Florida:
http://i62.tinypic.com/9lgxh1.jpg

Notice that is yesterday's run. On today's run it breaks down the narrow ridge even sooner.

[gatorcane]

Anybody have the UKMET - seems to be the most consistent so far though it only goes out 5 days...?

Over Cienfuegos Cuba 22.1N 80.7W at 120hr holding the line on the Southerly course. I agree it has been the most consistent. Very steady. It has it going over a lot of land it seems so that is why it stays weak.

Thanks, RUC graphic just became available, 132 hours:

[gatorcane]

Another image with spaghetti plots, 18Z:

[HURRICANELONNY]

Another image with spaghetti plots, 18Z:

that makes sense if it develops by tomorrow. depression or i think cristabol.