ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

HWRF same model which nailed Arthur and its further westward track. we shall see

[TheStormExpert]

HWRF same model which nailed Arthur and its further westward track. we shall see

How did it perform with Bertha?

[cycloneye]

Note=Model conversations are to be posted at the models thread,thanks.

[tolakram]

Live WV loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=12&lon=-52&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=10

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2014082018, , BEST, 0, 116N, 534W, 25, 1009, DB

[Blown Away]

Cristobal is a cool name for a hurricane... That name has an intimidating ring to it as a hurricane...

[nativefloridian]

18z Best Track.

AL, 96, 2014082018, , BEST, 0, 116N, 534W, 25, 1009, DB

IMO...COC looks pretty spot on around those numbers.

[gatorcane]

TAFB 72 hour position with "possible cyclone" wording:

[Blown Away]

That position is North of previous track which had 96L skirting S side of Hispaniola... I have a feeling Bahamas will be a fuel source and disruption by Hispaniola will keep 96L in check once it's N of that big island... JMHO

[somethingfunny]

"It’s still over a week away, but a tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles is being forecast by the GFS model to grow into a hurricane, making landfall near New Orleans just 1 day before the 9th anniversary of Katrina’s landfall"

Especially if you don't know what the GFS is and don't read more than that paragraph, since it's above the graphics break, it seems a suggestion to me, especially since it's being directed there by a news site with that line as the headline.

There is a BIG difference between a forecast and an observation. Stating a fact about a recent model run is not the same as saying "this is my forecast". Nowhere in the article does he state what he thinks will happen.

I might put this directly into my forum signature!

*Along with this, of course. This oughta just be copied into the Page 1 introduction post:

Ok, let's review a few things so we don't have to moderate as much.

1. Personal Forecast Disclaimers are required on all posts that are making a forecast or prediction. Only blue tagged pro-mets are excluded from this rule.

2. Please be careful when posting images that you mark up to make sure all official names have been removed.

3. We must all be respectful to other posters at all times, no exceptions. Please avoid snarky and one line comments that don't add to the discussion.

Thanks for your cooperation!

[Weatherboy1]

So many minor variables can impact 96's future - where the center forms, how long it has to wrestle with "dual centers" before then, whether or not it tangles with Hispanola down the road, and so on. Should be an interesting system to watch though, that's for sure!

[gatorcane]

Looks like like the right blob is going to take over as new convection is firing even at DMIN. I estimate any LLC trying to form on the NW fringe of the blob:

[weatherwindow]

...just a little hurricane humor (feel free to insert Key West and correct date date accordingly, LOL )

SPF 20, 50, & 100 to keep the entire family from getting sunburnt during water activities - $30
3 sets of new snorkels, fins and masks for the kids - $90
Overpriced holiday rate for a gulf front hotel room - $250

Earplugs, to drown out complaints from your wife, kids, and mother-in-law for spending Labor Day weekend at a hurricane shelter in Galveston Texas - Priceless

Will do ....Grtz from KW, Rich

[petit_bois]

Lets keep this all in perspective at this point.... no matter what the models are "suggesting" at his point in time.... Everyone from Central America to Bermuda is currently at risk of development of this invest. With that in mind... lets do everything we can to keep it OUT OF THE GOM!

[galaxy401]

Yeah the right blob looks better organized than the left. Reckon that will be the one to watch.

[tropicwatch]

Love the meteorological terminology "Blob" as good a description as any The left blob is starting to lose convection.

[deltadog03]

I still don't see how some of the short term models that have this either moving NW or NNW that quick are going to verify. I am assuming they are accounting for some center jumping around, but most of the NW to NNW model movements seem bogus from what the steering currents are showing and what the sat pics are showing.

[deltadog03]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[gatorcane]

Latest VIS floater before the sun goes down. Looks like there is a possible high tower forming near the LLC which I estimate around 52.5W and 13.0N. LLC is gaining some latitude (WNW movement) and I am seeing gradual organization throughout the span of this loop:

[srainhoutx]

I still don't see how some of the short term models that have this either moving NW or NNW that quick are going to verify. I am assuming they are accounting for some center jumping around, but most of the NW to NNW model movements seem bogus from what the steering currents are showing and what the sat pics are showing.

I strongly agree and I believe wxman57 stated the same thing this morning. I also see no imminent organization occurring via high resolution visible imagery as well. It looks like a typical monsoonal grye broad low at this time to me.