ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[galaxy401]

That storm will have to turn northwest immediately for that to verify. The only way to really do that is rapid intensification.

[MGC]

That storm will have to turn northwest immediately for that to verify. The only way to really do that is rapid intensification.

Thats what I am thinking too. Models turn the system too quickly NW. I am not buying any of the model guidance until the huricane hunters find a depression or TS.....MGC

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS model run starts in 5 min.

[Jevo]

18z GFS Initialized

[Dean4Storms]

The typical +5 day Wiper Effect in Full Auto Mode!

[northjaxpro]

12Z ECMWF showing a large break in the ridge over the Bahamas in 144 hours:


Notice the GFS though doesn't have quite as deep of a trough at 144 hours plus look at the little swirl on the map to the E of the Bahamas which is just enough ridging to allowing the system to move more NW into Florida:

Great illustration of the GFS and EURO runs which I observed earlier gatorcane. EURO indeed is very deep with the trough and if that verifies, most definitely 96L will get pulled out to sea. GFS still has the trough, but pinches off the ridge just enough in the recent run to move what becomes of the cyclone very close to the Florida peninsula.

It is a very interesting situation, but we can not get too caught up with this at this very moment until the merging process with the COC is completed, which appears to be happening now. Once it is clear where the main COC is initialized and when Recon gets in their tomorrow, hopefully future model runs will nail down where this thing goes, provided it can stay intact. So many variables, espcially with land interaction, especially potentially Hispaniola and Cuba, along with the trough/ridge interaction etc...

Lots of time still for things to come together and more changes of the models still to come I am certain.
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[Blown Away]

Another image with spaghetti plots, 18Z:

TVCN 120 hour spot is just off SFL coast... If 96L were classified the NHC usually uses a track based off something close to TVCN....

[Jevo]

18z GFS +24

[gatorcane]

GFS "jumps" the low a good bit to the north within 24 hours...looks like some kind of center reformation.

[Bocadude85]

GFS "jumps" the low a good bit to the north within 24 hours...looks like some kind of center reformation.

Wouldn't be surprised if this run has 96l heading out to sea based on the northward jump.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +48

[PTrackerLA]

Could be coming in line with the 12z Euro?

[TheStormExpert]

Another image with spaghetti plots, 18Z:
http://i62.tinypic.com/2i93tkm.jpg

TVCN 120 hour spot is just off SFL coast... If 96L were classified the NHC usually uses a track based off something close to TVCN....

This setup really seems similar to that of Hurricane Irene(2011) where the first several advisory tracks from the NHC had it coming towards SE Florida before the track finally started shifting east. Of course I know this invest has not developed yet, but it just seems to me IMO that this will be somewhat similar in ways.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Ridge rebuilding eastward, if not for the following front in the midwest, I would be calling for another Jeanne. Getting some Irene vibes.

That's the storm that cut off the last family vacation.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +72 - Looks to finally close off on the model just N of Haiti

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS a little right (north) of the 12Z...through 78 hours...

[Hammy]

This setup really seems similar to that of Hurricane Irene(2011) where the first several advisory tracks from the NHC had it coming towards SE Florida before the track finally started shifting east. Of course I know this invest has not developed yet, but it just seems to me IMO that this will be somewhat similar in ways.

Interesting thing is it's in almost the same place, as well as almost to the day, where Irene was at.

[Jevo]

18z GFS +96

[TheStormExpert]

This setup really seems similar to that of Hurricane Irene(2011) where the first several advisory tracks from the NHC had it coming towards SE Florida before the track finally started shifting east. Of course I know this invest has not developed yet, but it just seems to me IMO that this will be somewhat similar in ways.

Interesting thing is it's in almost the same place, as well as almost to the day, where Irene was at.

That's another reason too why a similar setup could take place.

[northjaxpro]

If this 18Z GFS 96 hr run verifies, feeling the weakness as it moves into the Bahamas.